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Turned Straight, but flush comes in

GusFritschie Posts: 102Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 MD Live, effective stacks are about $1,100.
$10 straddle is on and next to act makes is $30 two callers to me on the button with AJnosuit and I decide to squeeze to $135. Folds to orginal raiser who calls, everybody else folds. So preflop we have $345 in the pot.

Flop is Qdiamond10diamond9club I do not have a diamond.

Villain thinks and checks, I check it back.

Turn is a Kdiamond
For a board of Qdiamond10diamond9clubKdiamond and villian goes all-in for about $965 for me to call. I had been playing with him for about 4 hours and he seemed competent.

What is our play and what do you put villian on?

Comments

  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    he ships for 965 into 345?

    To me it looks like a flush that is trying to get called by a J. I cant really see him overbetting like this with a J since he is turning it into a bluff.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    This is so sick. I'm assuming we have no diamonds.

    This is another read dependent spot - is this guy crazy enough to do this on a bluff? There aren't many people that I would tag with "seemed competent" that I would give any bluffing range here. There is nothing that he does this with for value that you beat. Could be the nut flush or Jd9d hoping that someone will call off with a flush.

    But...what can call this for value? Could Jd8d even call here if the guy doesn't have a bluffing range?

    Doesn't that alone make it seem like he could be turning any two into a bluff here?

    I don't know if I would have the guts to call, but I think it could be defensible...the bet is so polarizing that it almost over-polarizes to bluffs. But again, completely read dependent, and we don't really have enough info to go on.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,391Subscriber
    Fold. The best you're doing I believe is calling for a chop or looking fade a diamond. V could have a made flush- small. Or has the Ad or Jd. Most likely the Ad.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    GusFritschie said

    Flop is Qdiamond10diamond9club I do not have a diamond.

    Tyrith said

    This is so sick. I'm assuming we have no diamonds.



    sick read bro
  • marseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    Would a competent player do this? How often? Snap fold for me as played. Curious why you didn't bet flop. Worried about getting blown off? Going to bet third diamond?
  • GusFritschie Posts: 102Subscriber
    What diamonds does he have? He raised EP and then calls $105 from my button squeeze and will be out of posistion the rest of the hand. Yes, he could have the Adiamond, but with what card? Would he play AdiamondJdiamond this fast? I just don't see how he shows up with diamonds. I do think he is somewhat competent but unless he has AJ the only other diamonds I see him having are 8diamond9diamond

    I checked the flop because I was happy to get a free card to hit my open-ender and didn't want to fold to a raise. I put him on a pocket-pair, as it looked like he thought about raising me preflop. But what pairs does he check on a wet flop?

    When the Kdiamond hit the turn it was not an instant all-in but pretty quick by him.
  • sevencarddud Posts: 30Member
    Has this villain seen any tendency for you to be squeeze happy? If not, then when you check back the flop he would probably put you on AK or JJ.

    Also, has this villain shown any tendency to open speculative hands like non broadway suited connectors from up front? Even if he has, he's less likely to do it in a bloated straddled pot.

    Since you say he's competent, let's assume he's acting based on what he thinks you have. So why would he ship here if he thinks you have AK or JJ? Would he turn a hand like 77 into a bluff here to get you off AK? I'm not giving a player credit for such a move until they've proven otherwise.

    Would he make this play with AdiamondKnosuit to try to freeroll/bust a chop with AK? Again I'd say no because this is a more advanced play than I'm giving an unknown player credit for.

    If we assume he's doing this for value...what hand does he think you can call with? AdiamondKnosuit? JJ? If he's trying to get value from AdiamondKnosuit, there are obviously a ton of hands you can beat. If he's trying to get value from JJ, then he has to have a flush, which as you pointed out is highly unlikely given the preflop action and the fact that he'd likely play AdiamondJdiamond (royal flush) slower.

    Going back to the second question I asked at the top, if he hasn't been raising suited connectors from up front, then I think this is a clear call. He can have a set or JJ and is trying to get value from AdiamondKnosuit. If he has been raising those hands and you think he could call trying to crack a big hand, then this is real tough.

    There are 9 combos of flopped sets (3/3/3 of QQ/TT/99) and 3 combos of JJ (since you have J). It doesn't make sense for him to do this with KKK because he's not going to put you on AdiamondKnosuit since only 1 K remains. So he has 12 value hand combos that you beat.

    If he could actually be in there with a suited connector, let's say a reasonable range is J9, 89, 79, 78, 68, 67, 57, 56, 46, 45, 35, 34. That's 12 combos that have you beat. And again, even if he is raising those hands from up front, it's less likely in a straddled pot.

    All things considered, I think this is a call. There are 12 value hands you can beat, and a discounted range of 12 value hands that beat you. Of course I am giving the player credit for being a decent hand reader and putting you on AK or JJ (assuming you haven't been squeeze happy and then he can put you wider).
  • SpewArtist Posts: 68Subscriber
    Check back on the flop is fine and pretty standard.

    How can this villain be considered "competant" when he does this?

    Sick spot to be sure. I just can't ever see him doing this with a flush. Close your eyes and call it off.
  • sevencarddud Posts: 30Member
    I could also see the player showing up with one of the 2 other possible combos of AJ suited for a chop. One hand he might semi-bluff spaz could be AdiamondQnosuit, but most "competent" players don't call 3 bets oop with AQo so that's unlikely.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    i snapcall this, especially if straddle was on BTN. UTG-2 raising range should basically have no flushes ever here
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    Why not Ad Kx..? When I read the post that was my first thought.. Fits the preflop action perfectly..

    ww
  • sevencarddud Posts: 30Member
    Wendy, if the player is "competent" what is their logic for shipping AdiamondKnosuit? If this is the type of player who only thinks about the strength of their own hand then I can see their "logic" being -> I've got TPTK with nut flush draw + gutshot, I'm gonna get it in here.

    In reality though, if they're "competent", which to me implies capable of hand reading, then shipping AdiamondKnosuit is basically turning your hand into a bluff, unless you think your opponent will actually call with a naked AK or worse, which seems almost impossible.
  • GusFritschie Posts: 102Subscriber
    When I said villian was "competent" it means I had not seen him do anything that I would consider bad or crazy.

    Anyways, I thought for a couple of minutes and just could not put him on a small flush, for the reasons I said before I just didn't see him calling $105 OOP. I also did not think he had AJ which would be the only broadway diamond he could have. I put him on either a weird/badly played AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010 and called. The river bricked and I was good as he had KK. I'm not sure if he was going for a check-raise on the flop or thought I had AA or QQ and have no idea why he shoved the turn we he could have just bet and see what I did.

    I agree that its not often these huge overbets are bluffs and in this case it wasn't, I really think he just wanted to take it down there and thought he had the best hand. I was happy with the way I played and thought about the hand, though I would have been sick if he had shown up with the flush.

    Thanks for the thoughts.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    sevencarddud said

    Has this villain seen any tendency for you to be squeeze happy? If not, then when you check back the flop he would probably put you on AK or JJ.

    Also, has this villain shown any tendency to open speculative hands like non broadway suited connectors from up front? Even if he has, he's less likely to do it in a bloated straddled pot.

    Since you say he's competent, let's assume he's acting based on what he thinks you have. So why would he ship here if he thinks you have AK or JJ? Would he turn a hand like 77 into a bluff here to get you off AK? I'm not giving a player credit for such a move until they've proven otherwise.

    Would he make this play with AdiamondKnosuit to try to freeroll/bust a chop with AK? Again I'd say no because this is a more advanced play than I'm giving an unknown player credit for.

    If we assume he's doing this for value...what hand does he think you can call with? AdiamondKnosuit? JJ? If he's trying to get value from AdiamondKnosuit, there are obviously a ton of hands you can beat. If he's trying to get value from JJ, then he has to have a flush, which as you pointed out is highly unlikely given the preflop action and the fact that he'd likely play AdiamondJdiamond (royal flush) slower.

    Going back to the second question I asked at the top, if he hasn't been raising suited connectors from up front, then I think this is a clear call. He can have a set or JJ and is trying to get value from AdiamondKnosuit. If he has been raising those hands and you think he could call trying to crack a big hand, then this is real tough.

    There are 9 combos of flopped sets (3/3/3 of QQ/TT/99) and 3 combos of JJ (since you have J). It doesn't make sense for him to do this with KKK because he's not going to put you on AdiamondKnosuit since only 1 K remains. So he has 12 value hand combos that you beat.

    If he could actually be in there with a suited connector, let's say a reasonable range is J9, 89, 79, 78, 68, 67, 57, 56, 46, 45, 35, 34. That's 12 combos that have you beat. And again, even if he is raising those hands from up front, it's less likely in a straddled pot.

    All things considered, I think this is a call. There are 12 value hands you can beat, and a discounted range of 12 value hands that beat you. Of course I am giving the player credit for being a decent hand reader and putting you on AK or JJ (assuming you haven't been squeeze happy and then he can put you wider).

    The problem with this is the 12 combos that have you beat have you drawing dead. And the 9 combos of sets that you beat still have 22% equity and the combo of 99 with the D has 43% equity.
  • sevencarddud Posts: 30Member
    Mike said
    sevencarddud said

    Has this villain seen any tendency for you to be squeeze happy? If not, then when you check back the flop he would probably put you on AK or JJ.

    Also, has this villain shown any tendency to open speculative hands like non broadway suited connectors from up front? Even if he has, he's less likely to do it in a bloated straddled pot.

    Since you say he's competent, let's assume he's acting based on what he thinks you have. So why would he ship here if he thinks you have AK or JJ? Would he turn a hand like 77 into a bluff here to get you off AK? I'm not giving a player credit for such a move until they've proven otherwise.

    Would he make this play with AdiamondKnosuit to try to freeroll/bust a chop with AK? Again I'd say no because this is a more advanced play than I'm giving an unknown player credit for.

    If we assume he's doing this for value...what hand does he think you can call with? AdiamondKnosuit? JJ? If he's trying to get value from AdiamondKnosuit, there are obviously a ton of hands you can beat. If he's trying to get value from JJ, then he has to have a flush, which as you pointed out is highly unlikely given the preflop action and the fact that he'd likely play AdiamondJdiamond (royal flush) slower.

    Going back to the second question I asked at the top, if he hasn't been raising suited connectors from up front, then I think this is a clear call. He can have a set or JJ and is trying to get value from AdiamondKnosuit. If he has been raising those hands and you think he could call trying to crack a big hand, then this is real tough.

    There are 9 combos of flopped sets (3/3/3 of QQ/TT/99) and 3 combos of JJ (since you have J). It doesn't make sense for him to do this with KKK because he's not going to put you on AdiamondKnosuit since only 1 K remains. So he has 12 value hand combos that you beat.

    If he could actually be in there with a suited connector, let's say a reasonable range is J9, 89, 79, 78, 68, 67, 57, 56, 46, 45, 35, 34. That's 12 combos that have you beat. And again, even if he is raising those hands from up front, it's less likely in a straddled pot.

    All things considered, I think this is a call. There are 12 value hands you can beat, and a discounted range of 12 value hands that beat you. Of course I am giving the player credit for being a decent hand reader and putting you on AK or JJ (assuming you haven't been squeeze happy and then he can put you wider).

    The problem with this is the 12 combos that have you beat have you drawing dead. And the 9 combos of sets that you beat still have 22% equity and the combo of 99 with the D has 43% equity.
    But the 12 combos that have you beat are discounted from his range due to the straddle/preflop action, plus you're getting a 1.36:1 price on the call. There's no mathematical way to quantify the actual "discount" of the 12 flushes unfortunately, so there's no perfect mathematical answer here. You just have to go with your live feel on whether or not he had a strong hand preflop, or had "crackers", which is something you can sometimes pick up on if you watch how your opponent calls a 3 bet preflop.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    sevencarddud said

    Wendy, if the player is "competent" what is their logic for shipping AdiamondKnosuit? If this is the type of player who only thinks about the strength of their own hand then I can see their "logic" being -> I've got TPTK with nut flush draw + gutshot, I'm gonna get it in here.

    In reality though, if they're "competent", which to me implies capable of hand reading, then shipping AdiamondKnosuit is basically turning your hand into a bluff, unless you think your opponent will actually call with a naked AK or worse, which seems almost impossible.
    See just because someone is competent doesnt mean they are good thinking players. The other thought I had was this guy had a set and was "protecthing" his hand.. .. I would really put virtually all SCs out of his range and that leaves only AJdd.. thats one combo .. so given his action I would think set or AdKx and you should call given that range against a player who isnt capable of playing weird..

    and weird I mean someone capable of out leveling by playing a hand to look like a set when in fact he has a flush.. specifically to get called by a straight.. but in reality how many players out there are capable of this?

    ww
  • sevencarddud Posts: 30Member
    Thehammah said
    sevencarddud said

    Wendy, if the player is "competent" what is their logic for shipping AdiamondKnosuit? If this is the type of player who only thinks about the strength of their own hand then I can see their "logic" being -> I've got TPTK with nut flush draw + gutshot, I'm gonna get it in here.

    In reality though, if they're "competent", which to me implies capable of hand reading, then shipping AdiamondKnosuit is basically turning your hand into a bluff, unless you think your opponent will actually call with a naked AK or worse, which seems almost impossible.
    See just because someone is competent doesnt mean they are good thinking players.

    ww
    Yes, this thread has caused me to redefine "competent" when people use it to refer to players. What I was defining as competent I think others would refer to as good/thinking.
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