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QQ flops a set in 3bet pot, turn ace

SanketDesai Posts: 4Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Posted this in 2p2 but I want more responses:

Eff stacks are 350

I make it 15 from EP with QQ over some limpers. 1 call. Vil raises to 35. I call. Other guy folds.

Flop (90): Q52hh

I check, he bets $25. I make it $70, he calls

Turn (230): Ad

I have 245 behind. Hero?


Villain: Standard player. Running pretty hot today. Haven't seen him bluff or get out of line. Plays lots of hands in limped pots but less so in raised pots. He plays very standard fit or fold in raised pots. He's 3bet once today and showed up with KK. I think his 3bet range is AA-TT, AK/AQ but that is being generous. Mostly it is going to be AA-QQ every time, JJ most of the time, AK about half the time, AQ rarely.

Turn card is so sick IMO.

Comments

  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    he probably would call flop with AK getting over 4:1, and continues on this turn, so I would bet small.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    Aesah said

    he probably would call flop with AK getting over 4:1, and continues on this turn, so I would bet small.
    how small? You think like $125? If he has Ace high flush draw he is never folding.

    Do you think this is ever more like way ahead way behind..where we are way ahead and therefore go for gold? Bet pot? He will most likely fold anything not a flush draw that isnt an ace so why not just bet the crap out of it?

    Wendy
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    if we were deep i would almost always pot this turn (as played) but $125 is fine, then you can jam in $120 into $480 on the river and he probably can't fold anything
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    what hands that we beat are giving us action on the A turn?
    KK might get scared and fold, but we probably aren't getting 2 more streets from KK. AK is definitely continuing and drawing dead (unless exactly AKhh). We get value from random flush draws, especially A high flush draws. and we probably get AQ to ship over our turn bet.
    most other hands (JJ/TT/other pocket pairs) probably fold to hero's turn bet.

    what sizing gets the most value from this range? i'm thinking we might want to bet on the smaller side to include 1 pair hands in his calling range. $120 is good as you guys said.

    can the OP bet/fold the turn? i don't think so. if he outdrew you on the turn, thems the breaks kid.
  • SanketDesai Posts: 4Member
    I'm just unsure of how many of those hands are even in his 3bet range

    This is 1/2 and most people don't 3bet without AA-JJ and AK. I've only seen him 3bet once in 3 hours and he had KK. How would you approach this without a solid read of what his 3bet range is? When I encounter that, I just assume they have a standard 1/2 3bet range which is very strong.
  • BrokeDonk Posts: 7Subscriber
    I find his flop sizing very interesting. It almost screams weakness. But sometimes players do weird crap like that because they're immediately afraid their opponent flopped a set.

    What I mean to say is, I'm immediately discounting AA/KK once he bets 25. So the turn card is a gin card to me. It smashes his "I have AK and gosh darnit I always miss so I'm seeing a turn card!" range.
  • beepbeep Posts: 28Member
    SanketDesai said

    I'm just unsure of how many of those hands are even in his 3bet range

    This is 1/2 and most people don't 3bet without AA-JJ and AK. I've only seen him 3bet once in 3 hours and he had KK. How would you approach this without a solid read of what his 3bet range is? When I encounter that, I just assume they have a standard 1/2 3bet range which is very strong.
    Sanket. Your first post categorises him as a fit or fold player, so I'd think your assumption of his 3b range is pretty spot on. I think he has more AK in his range than AA or KK though, as those hands typically cbet larger on the flop to 'protect against flush draws'. I'd also bet small like Aesah suggests, but not even 125 but maybe 85 or 90. He'll probably fold KK, call with AK, and shove with a weirdly played AA. You could bet half-pot like 125 to protect against AhKh, but that's only one combo of AK vs 6 combos of AA, and you risk more to get the same information.

    And if he just calls and the river bricks, shove the river and take the AK to value town wink If he tables AA, you've played it optimally and he hasn't.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    Polarized and Unbalanced said

    I find his flop sizing very interesting. It almost screams weakness. But sometimes players do weird crap like that because they're immediately afraid their opponent flopped a set.

    What I mean to say is, I'm immediately discounting AA/KK once he bets 25. So the turn card is a gin card to me. It smashes his "I have AK and gosh darnit I always miss so I'm seeing a turn card!" range.
    This reasoning seems pretty strong to me.
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