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Preflop Play Calling When You're Behind

TimothyJohnston Posts: 11Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/2/1 No Cap 4 to enter.

MP(100bb) Limps for $4
Hero CO Tdiamond9diamond(250bb) Raises to $16
Btn (150bb) 3 Bets to $40 ( Btn is a tight prop not doing this with less than QQ+ AK, more likely Q's +)
MP tanks and calls $40
Hero Calls $40

Flop Tspade9club3spade

MP Checks
Hero Bets $100 (I was pretty certain I was up against 2 over pairs seeing that I block 10's and 9's although it is possible for MP to have 99 or TT but MP was giving away tells that he was uncomfortable)
Btn Shoves All In for $250
MP tanks and folds what I was pretty certain JJ.
I call.

Turn Aspade

River Kheart

How is my play here? This is not normal for me to do this but I felt that I might have FE on some A high K high boards and I felt that if I hit the Implied odds were there for this to be profitable. Am I just wrong?

Comments

  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    you have to call pre vs. this sizing. postflop i'd probably check and expect BTN to cbet almost his entire range, and even if he doesn't cbet AK it's drawing basically dead vs. you anyway and you want him to catch up on the turn

    did you lose this hand? you may potentially have mental game leaks
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    I think it's close. We're OOP, another player is the aggressor, we aren't deep, and his range has us soul-crushed. I guess this isn't a fist-pumping spot I look for in my games.

    PLAYER_1 Td9d
    PLAYER_2 QQ-AA,AK
    PLAYER_3 AxQx-Ax7x,AxQy-AxTy,KxQx,KxJx,QxJx,JxTx,TT-22,Tx9x,9x8x,8x7x,7x6x,6x5x

    It's hard to outflop both of them - 6% we make bottom two or better on the flop.

    64.4973% NOTHING
    2.4632% THIRDPAIR
    14.0315% SECONDPAIR
    13.1607% TOPPAIR
    0.7123% BOTTOMTWO
    1.4557% TOPTWO
    1.4542% TRIPS
    1.2947% STRAIGHT
    0.7998% FLUSH
    0.1000% FULLHOUSE
    0.0110% QUADS
    0.0197% STRAIGHTFLUSH

    But even after flopping bottom two we still lose 28% of the time - which will probably end up costing our entire stack nearly every time.


    Here's all the draws you flop - How many of these spots are +EV? Without fold equity and position it's hard to say....

    36.9973% NOTHING | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
    11.3247% NOTHING | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
    7.2142% NOTHING | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8

    5.8903% NOTHING | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
    1.8860% NOTHING | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
    1.1982% NOTHING | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8

    1.0235% THIRDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
    0.7898% THIRDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
    0.4835% THIRDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8

    0.0653% THIRDPAIR | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
    0.0532% THIRDPAIR | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
    0.0293% THIRDPAIR | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8

    11.7243% SECONDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
    0.9727% SECONDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
    0.4910% SECONDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8

    0.7458% SECONDPAIR | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
    0.0663% SECONDPAIR | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
    0.0385% SECONDPAIR | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8

    10.8770% TOPPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
    1.0052% TOPPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
    0.4940% TOPPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8

    0.6385% TOPPAIR | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
    0.0695% TOPPAIR | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
    0.0300% TOPPAIR | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8


    So given all the factors, this is a super marginal spot and probably -EV at these stack depths. We could have just used Bart's 15-25-35 guidelines - we'd want to be able to win 25X (25 x $24) which would be $600 which makes this a fold - but I think it's good to look at some raw numbers and data rather than blatently following guidelines without understanding the underlying math/logic.

    http://www.seatopenpoker.net/deuce-plays-premium-43-15-25-35/

    Numbers provided by Odds Oracle Professional - $89.
  • TimothyJohnston Posts: 11Member
    Aesah said

    you have to call pre vs. this sizing. postflop i'd probably check and expect BTN to cbet almost his entire range, and even if he doesn't cbet AK it's drawing basically dead vs. you anyway and you want him to catch up on the turn

    did you lose this hand? you may potentially have mental game leaks
    I won the hand. Villain in MP said he had JJ and Btn had QQ. I'm sure I have metal game leaks but I don' t think being result oriented is one of them though lol. I'm just wondering if the line is decent. I think the main problem with this is effective stacks aren't big enough to make this +Ev.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    ^ good to hear. the posting style (posting irrelevant turn/river) looks kind of results oriented to me that's all.

    I think the hand is pretty standard. Folding pre is OK but the sizing is small enough that I think calling is best.
  • TimothyJohnston Posts: 11Member
    Aesah said

    ^ good to hear. the posting style (posting irrelevant turn/river) looks kind of results oriented to me that's all.

    I think the hand is pretty standard. Folding pre is OK but the sizing is small enough that I think calling is best.
    Yea I guess it makes no difference if I post the turn/river. As for the hand I'm calling $24 to win $96 and I felt that I have a post flop edge on both villains as well as fold equity on some boards and if I hit, the implied odds seemed good enough because I knew villain wouldn't be able to get away from an over pair. Anyways I wanted to post the hand here because on 2+2, there seemed to be a huge debate on whether this spot is ok or very bad. Thanks for the input though I appreciate the discussion!



    Curious, how do you feel about the flop play? Betting $100 instead of checking?
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    I prefer checking. Against an overpair you get his entire stack anyway, so you want your action to target AK-type hands. I think you make the most from them by checking here.
  • TimothyJohnston Posts: 11Member
    Aesah said

    I prefer checking. Against an overpair you get his entire stack anyway, so you want your action to target AK-type hands. I think you make the most from them by checking here.
    I would have made maybe an extra 60-100 of MP here if I checked, I just didn't want to give Btn a chance to check back. I agree though I think checking here is optimal.thumb
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