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Top Two on Turn with Pot-Sized Bet Behind

Outlier Posts: 87Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
My question in this hand has to do with how to determine bet sizing when the pot gets big relative to stack sizes.

$1/2
MP2 V1 open limps
MP3 V2 ($190) over limps
SB ($150) raises to $15
BB Hero ($400) AdiamondJdiamond calls
MP2 calls
MP3 calls

Flop ($60) AspadeJspade8club
SB checks
BB Hero bets $35
MP1 folds
MP2 calls
SB folds

Turn ($130) AspadeJspade8club9diamond

Hero ($350 behind) ??
MP2 ($140 behind)

Read on villain: have played with him a lot, know his game pretty well. He plays very loose passive (open limps/overlimps/limp-calls often) and tends toward risk avoidance rather than maximizing value. Also often slowplays monsters. Gives away hand strength by size of preflop bet. The top of his limp-calling range is something like AQ, KQs, and 99.

My read here was that he had 88, A-X, or a spade draw.

Yes, I could have folded AJs preflop with raiser's stack size and my poor position. Yes, I could have bet more on the flop. My main question, though, is this:

Facing this kind of situation on the turn when effective remaining stacks are close to the pot size, I often end up thinking, "just ship it, there's too much money in there." (with a hand that I think is best or a solid favorite vs villain's range). I want to refine my betting to match villain's range better. Insights?

Comments

  • YoungGrinder Posts: 210Subscriber
    I would shove turn.
    Turn is a great card for shoving because it gives your opponent some combo draws as well which probably can't find a fold here.
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    I know you don't want to consider flop bet sizing, but it is important and does kind of affect the hand.

    You have top 2 on a super wet board. Guys don't like to fold TP aces, so you'll get called. Flush draws, straight draws, straight/flush draws are calling. QT is a double gutter which is calling. IMO I'd bet something like $45 into $60 because if guys are calling $35 they're calling a little more. Betting smaller IMO is just losing value and setting up an awkward turn situation.

    That makes the turn an easy ship, but in this case I'd still ship anyway. QT does come in, which kinda sucks. You're forgetting that hand which is open ended on the flop. But unless you're going to make a crazy bet tiny/fold you might as well just shove because you're not folding anyway.

    If you bet like $65 here you might induce some kind of weird shove, and you're giving a lot of hands close to proper odds unless you're check/folding a ton of rivers. Anything more than that basically commits villain anyway so you might as well just ship it.

    Just one more note - this is why it's so important to bet bigger on flop with these stack sizes. You want to size it so you can shove turn and get called by draws - otherwise you're losing value.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    Yeah, this seems like a pretty clear ship - you can get called by worse and you're never going to fold. It's possible he made a straight or has a set here, but he is also going to have a lot of JT/J9/J8 sorts of hands. It's even more of a ship if he can have AQ here.

    That said, I agree with PIF that betting $45 on the flop would have better and made this easier.
  • BrokeDonk Posts: 7Subscriber
    Alternatively you could also bet $70 on turn and $70 on river. That way he's not facing a "big" bet on the turn where he might find a hero fold with a hand like AQ or AT. It's kind of fishy, but it works a lot in low stakes live games.
  • reemas Posts: 100Member
    Outlier said
    Yes, I could have folded AJs preflop with raiser's stack size and my poor position. Yes, I could have bet more on the flop. My main question, though, is this:

    Facing this kind of situation on the turn when effective remaining stacks are close to the pot size, I often end up thinking, "just ship it, there's too much money in there." (with a hand that I think is best or a solid favorite vs villain's range). I want to refine my betting to match villain's range better. Insights?
    Hi Outlier,
    "This kind of situation" exists because you didn't bet more on the flop. When betting the flop did you consider villains stack size should he call? If so you could avoid this overbet on the turn and in fact maximize value against the villain (as you described him) but shoving just under pot.

    As played it's similar to if you had bet more on the flop, so I would shove now. Just wanted to emphasize the importance of planning your bet sizes in advance.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,390Subscriber
    I agree with others re flop sizing. I'm not sure I agree with shoving the turn unless the goal is to get the V to fold. If we shove what hands are going to call us? I tend to think everything that beats us will call and everything we beat folds. If you were the villain in the hand are you going to call off $140 with one pair?
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    Brudre21 said

    I agree with others re flop sizing. I'm not sure I agree with shoving the turn unless the goal is to get the V to fold. If we shove what hands are going to call us? I tend to think everything that beats us will call and everything we beat folds. If you were the villain in the hand are you going to call off $140 with one pair?
    In general, that's not the question I'm most concerned about. But if I was in the villain's position, with the stacks as is on the turn, the best sizing wouldn't matter in the slightest unless it was like $20.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    anything but shipping here i think is bad.. If you bet smaller he is going to get the right odds to call assuming you are folding almost no rivers if you bet say like 80 you are leaving yourself with too little behind to fold. So really you are letting him get the odds of your whole stack while only having to put half of his in. Just ship it.

    And ya you dont wanna hear about the sizing but when you think about sizing the entire way through the hand, you avoid leaving yourself with awkward stacks like this.
  • Outlier Posts: 87Subscriber
    Thanks everyone for the feedback. The consensus definitely was a) bet bigger on flop and b) ship the turn.

    Brudre21 did hit on an issue I was struggling with in the hand: how do I get max value from AQ or AT? From the perspective of stack sizes, a ship seemed the only option, for all the reasons everyone mentioned above, but it was hard for me imagine that AT or AQ would call the ship. Even though combinatorically, it's more likely he has a weaker two pair or combo draws, I thought AQ or AT was very likely based on the villain.

    One more comment about the flop bet sizing, which actually reveals another way to frame the problem I'm having--when I bet $35 into $60, I set myself up to shove $140 into a pot of $130. Had I bet the generally agreed upon $45, I'd be shoving $130 into $150. This is not that much of a difference for one big reason that Bart mentions all the time: absolute bet size means more to the average player than PSR. I maintain that this guy (and many players like him) is not one iota more likely to call off $130 into $150 than $140 into $130--all he knows is he is facing a massive (for him) all-in bet.

    So, another way to state the challenge: how to deal with bet sizing when you know that the bet that makes sense with respect to pots and stacks (in this case, easy shove) still represents a massive bet to villain, who might find a fold?

    Results:

    I shoved the turn. Villain called with Tspade8spade.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    Him calling with Ts8s is why we need to shove. Every dollar less you bet there is a dollar he's free-rolling you on, unless you will genuinely be able to fold to a $70 bet into $260 when he hits. Admittedly, he may dump AQ here sometimes, but he also might not.
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