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Is it correct to raise in this spot

VernonJones Posts: 178Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Aggro Asian young lady who has already raised her $10 straddle twice over limpers and taken down a few pots with big bet poker. I thought she was bluffing in a couple spots but she never had to show down.

Effective stacks $700 at a 2/5 game. I raise on the button over one limper and the Villian in the big blind with KJ off.

($60) Flop is KK4 rainbow. Checked around . Turn is 8 rainbow and she leads out for $60 and I just call

($180) River is a deuce and she leads out for $115. Would you raise in this spot? If so, how much and what do you do if she shoves? The one thing that concerned me is she could make a play at the pot and put me in awkward spot if she raised me.

Comments

  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    Just FYI I'm betting flop here a ton. A lot of fish will just decide they don't "put you on a king" and will call with any pair or even ace high. If they call with a hand like 77 and turn is a queen they might just fold.

    As played, I seriously doubt worse is going to shove back the river. When you check/call/raise it looks like you have a crazy strong hand - AK or 8's full or something. I'd probably make something like a little bigger than a min raise and probably make a sick fold if shoved back on.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    I'm not really sure what worse hands are calling a raise here.

    Is her PF calling range going to include unsuited kings worse than KT? Is it going to contain suited kings worse than KT? I'd put her range of hands she'd do this with for value at something like KQ, KJ, KT, maybe K9s/K8s, 88 and 44. There's also a slim chance she has a screwily played AA or QQ, but you described her as aggro, so I doubt it. I would also think 3-bet AK pre-flop most of the time.

    From our opponent's perspective, if they're paying attention, KJ should be the very bottom of our value raising range here. Question is, would she ever bluff catch us with some of the other hands? The check on the flop might buy us some credibility in that regard...if she's a reasonably competent player though, our river raise is repping a huge hand, especially if she hasn't seen us make moves.

    She also could have a good number of bluffs here, but we obviously beat all bluffs, so there's no reason to raise.

    I would probably just call here, unless I got a vibe that she was fishy/call happy to go along with her aggro side. It seems unlikely to me that we're going to be good 50% of the time if we get called in this spot.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    The only reason to raise here is if you think she will spazz out and you are inducing a bluff. There are not nearly enough combos of hands that will call your raise on the river to balance with the times you are shoved on/called by better.
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    If you min raise the river, rec players don't fold trip kings. They'll hem and haw and complain about you sucking out or slowplaying a monster, but they'll call in the end because they have trips, and trips is a strong hand.

    I know they don't actually beat anything and a lot of the time they know they don't beat anything, but they're at the river and for $100 or whatever they get to showdown. If you min raise turn they might fold because they need to call that AND a river bet. But given a chance to see a showdown, they're gonna showdown monkey all day.

    My only concern would be how often do they have AK or QK here. If we had AK and decided to check flop, river is such an easy raise because we're getting called all day.
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    River is an easy raise to $275.

    Because aggro young female Asian Villain probably 3-bets AK preflop often, we are often against KQ/KT/K9s/pocket pairs here. If Villain ever calls us with 99-TT, this is an great spot to put in a value raise.
  • beepbeep Posts: 28Member
    It's unlikely she has AK as she din 3-bet pre, or led the flop.
    Your hand's underrepped when you checked the flop, so I raise on the river, and fold to a shove.

    I'd bet the flop too.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    bet 25-30 on flop. just get some money in that pot. lotta players will call with only an ace, and definitely with any pair. and an aggro player like this might have plans to float. doesn't have to be a big bet, just get some money in there.... i think it's pretty pessimistic not to raise small on river.....
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,399Subscriber
    I like a raise as well. And if she shoves fold. I think her lead on the turn is suspicious.
  • VernonJones Posts: 178Subscriber
    I agree with everyone about betting flop. I was just trying to get her to bluff at the pot. She did have KT and would of probably called a small raise.
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    VernonJones said

    She did have KT and would of probably called a small raise.
    Wow, most people in my 2/5 player pool would call a LARGE river raise with KT the way you played it. I'd make it like $275-350, which is a large river raise considering stacks.
  • ThatOtherJeremy Posts: 314Member
    Tyrith said

    I'm not really sure what worse hands are calling a raise here.

    Is her PF calling range going to include unsuited kings worse than KT? Is it going to contain suited kings worse than KT? I'd put her range of hands she'd do this with for value at something like KQ, KJ, KT, maybe K9s/K8s, 88 and 44. There's also a slim chance she has a screwily played AA or QQ, but you described her as aggro, so I doubt it. I would also think 3-bet AK pre-flop most of the time.

    From our opponent's perspective, if they're paying attention, KJ should be the very bottom of our value raising range here. Question is, would she ever bluff catch us with some of the other hands? The check on the flop might buy us some credibility in that regard...if she's a reasonably competent player though, our river raise is repping a huge hand, especially if she hasn't seen us make moves.

    She also could have a good number of bluffs here, but we obviously beat all bluffs, so there's no reason to raise.

    I would probably just call here, unless I got a vibe that she was fishy/call happy to go along with her aggro side. It seems unlikely to me that we're going to be good 50% of the time if we get called in this spot.
    You are giving this villain way too much credit , IMO. The river is a super standard R/F. This is a button vs blind dynamic against an aggressive opponent . So she PSBs turn after the preflop raiser checks back flop in position, fires the river, and we are suddenly giving her credit for holding the top of her range? Isn't that exactly what an aggro player is expected to do when hero shows flop weakness? So much value Is sacrificed by taking such a conservative line.
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    If we had KQ instead of KJ, are we still not raising river? AK? At least some of the time she 3b's AK, so we're really worried about KQ (which an aggro player might 3b anyway) and a few combos of AK. If she's loose pre and always calls KT, then the KQ/KT combos cancel out and there should be more Kxs/k9o-ish combos than non-3b AK's IMO.

    I've given villains way too much credit for being able to fold hands in the past. Now when I'm not sure if I can get called by worse, I bet or raise anyway. Guys are bad at poker, and they don't like to fold especially on the river when their call gets them to showdown. This is especially true if you can beat 2pair + in absolute value, b/c guys just don't like to fold 2 pair plus.
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