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river sizing

Mike Posts: 371Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Live 1/2 game $100-$300 buy in

in the BB with Q9o check the option pot is 8 handed.

flop 8TJr i lead 15 into 16 get called in 1 spot by standard old guy.

Turn Ks bringing a backdorr spade draw. I lead 50 and guy thinks for a minute before calling.

River is 2s. This is a super standard bet/fold. Just curious about how big i should be betting. The old guy in the hand is not one who is not going to see that AQ was a double gutshot on the flop so i think we can eliminate some of those hands from his range.

To me his range is T8/TJ/KJ/KQ/88 and some combos of spades with the 9 in them (79/89/9T/A9). (note: the Jack was the spade on the flop and i have the Q spades.)

I did some of the equity calcs for this hand but am having trouble agreeing with buddies on the villians calling range. Do you think this is a spot where bet sizing matters or is he simply calling of folding?

Comments

  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    He hasn't shown any aggressive action, so I'd remove sets and 79 from his range. AQ seems unlikely due to the 8 handed limping PF and the lack of raise on the turn (especially given it backdoors a FD). I would size my bet looking to get value from a turned one or two pair K-type hand -- perhaps something like $90 or $100 into $145 pot, and agree, fold to a raise.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Bet river $95 to try to get looked up by 2 pair. Could size a bit bigger if spades didn't complete otr.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    I don't think he has two pair.. especially when the king falls on the turn. I think he probabaly has KQ or QJ.. So I would bet to get called by a one pair and since he is an older guy they LOVE bluff catching..

    Now if he is super passive and you have seen him just call multiple streets with two pair or better then I would bomb the river since he is either going to call or fold and the call/fold is inelastic.. God I love using Econ terms in poker.. my education wasnt a waste! lol

    Wendy
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    shmed said

    He hasn't shown any aggressive action, so I'd remove sets and 79 from his range. AQ seems unlikely due to the 8 handed limping PF and the lack of raise on the turn (especially given it backdoors a FD). I would size my bet looking to get value from a turned one or two pair K-type hand -- perhaps something like $90 or $100 into $145 pot, and agree, fold to a raise.
    At both games at Aria and Venetian I saw older players be VERY passive even with sets. One guy had a chance to stack me when he flopped a set against my tptk and flush draw yet just CALLED me all three streets.. NEVER raised!

    Villain could actually have a big hand but is just deathly afraid of having the second best hand so they call ...
  • I would bet on the larger side. Dont putt around to specifically get called by QJ. If he has a K, two pair or a set he is going to call a large bet. Jx probably wont call at all so whats the point?

    Bart
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    You could easily bet $30 on the flop here.

    As played I like $105 on the river.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    Thanks for the replys!!

    I ended up betting 125 and got called by 89ss. When talking about the sizing to my buddies we all sorta agreed that it would be better to bet like 95 or something just to keep the number under 100. I dont want someone to hero fold a hand like 8T or something that was slowplaying but then got scared when the K peeled off.

    Mike
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