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Big river 380BB effective

cl0r0x70 Posts: 27Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
10/10NL, 1AM, six handed, $3800 effective.

My image on this evening is probably a little LAG. I'm never quite sure (any regs want to let me know what my image is in your eyes?) I think some view me as tight, and some as loose.

Tonight I've been opening a lot of pots, and been caught bluffing a few times recently. I also recently called flop and then value bluffed AQ on a wet/missed river, got called and was good. A winning image overall, fwiw.

Villain is an Asian female. I haven't played with her before, but was told she was a reg. I assigned her the stereotypical tight stereotype, but then she 3bet me two times in the first hour, and I picked up other reads that she may be capable of some creativity. Small sample size, however. Her showdowns have been solid, so I've upgraded her to decent TAG.

Hero bets $40 36ss UTG.
MP calls
Villain calls on button
BB calls

Game conditions made this open +EV. I do not want to go into more details on an open forum.

Flop ($170): KJ7sss
Hero bets $120
Fold
Villain raises to $340
Folds to Hero.
I tank for 15 seconds and call

This is not a pure bluff. Villain has a big hand here. At the same time, I discount KK and JJ. I am confident she would 3bet me pre with these hands most of the time. In my analysis, I leave in one hand combo of each.

Please evaluate my range for villain (generated by PokerJournal)
{77, AdAs, KdKc, JdJc, AKs, AsQs-As2s,
KJs, KsQs, Qs9s+, Ts8s+, 9s7s+, 8s6s+, 7s5s+, 6s5s, 5s4s, 4s3s, 3s2s,
AsKh, AsKc, AsKd, AsQh, AsQc, AsQd, AsJh, AsJc, AsJd, AsTh, AsTc,
AsTd, KJo, QsTh}

Thoughts on this range?

Turn ($850): KJ7sss Tc
Hero bets $520
Villain tanks for 5 seconds and calls

I felt I was losing too much value not betting. I think if villain raises here, it's a tough decision, probably leaning towards a fold depending on the sizing. Obviously AQ gets there, and some of the big broadway draws may have improved or picked up some straight outs.

River ($1,890): KJ7sss Tc Qc
Hero?

The four-straight and extra broadway card make this an interesting river IMO.

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    I am not sure what the dynamics are that raising utg with 34 ss could be pos ev. I think the range analysis is a bit off. I dont think AA or KK is likely. if she were next to you and then utg+1 then I would say its possible. but here she has the button I think she would reraise you w aa or kk to get it heads up.

    given all of this the fact she just called your bet on the turn seems like she doesnt have a flush. given her raise on the flop I think she has a set (like7s). or kj. she could also have ak. have you seen this player raise w tptk and nut flush draw? if so then ak is also likely. if she can have ak then I would bet bigger on river. if she cant then I would bet smaller. maybe 500. to get looked up by set or kj


    Wendy
  • cl0r0x70 Posts: 27Member
    wendy weissman said

    I am not sure what the dynamics are that raising utg with 34 ss could be pos ev. I think the range analysis is a bit off. I dont think AA or KK is likely. if she were next to you and then utg+1 then I would say its possible. but here she has the button I think she would reraise you w aa or kk to get it heads up.
    I can't defend 36ss in a vacuum.

    Unfortunately, the game is a small player pool, and many read various forums, so I can't get into most of the specifics.

    In my range analysis, you'll see that I left in only one combo each of AA,KK,JJ to account for the lack of a pre flop 3bet.
    wendy weissman said
    given all of this the fact she just called your bet on the turn seems like she doesnt have a flush. given her raise on the flop I think she has a set (like7s). or kj. she could also have ak. have you seen this player raise w tptk and nut flush draw? if so then ak is also likely. if she can have ak then I would bet bigger on river. if she cant then I would bet smaller. maybe 500. to get looked up by set or kj


    Wendy
    I agree that the turn call takes some flushes out of her range.

    On the river, what's your plan of you get raised?
  • As played I'd bet $1000. I would so seldom expect to ever see a raise--it would almost be shocking. This lady is going to raise you on the flop with the nuts, then just call the turn and now raise the river? Or she is going to raise you on the flop get scared of a higher flush on the turn and now decide to raise you on the river?
    Seems highly unlikely. But if she did jam I'd have to fold.

    I actually like check calling turn and bet folding river. Her smaller flop sizing indicates to me that this is a either a very nutty hand in which she wants to get value or a top pairish type of hand that she is trying to protect. I think that you can gain a lot about her strength through her turn sizing. If she follows up with a bet of less than $400, either check raise turn small or call and pot a non spade river.

    Bart
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    I think the turn call doesn't eliminate a flush out of villian's range, either a middle flush since she maybe worried that you have the Asxs, a nut-peddling Asxs move to get you to continue to bet the river.

    This hand is pretty gross out of position, and I would have either folded on the flop or gone into check calling mode if you think she's one to bet a FD -- sounds weak but rationale is for stack preservation -- and if you are going to call her off, better not to bloat the pot OOP.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    I hate the call flop and donk turn line in all cases.

    As played bet/fold river.
  • cl0r0x70 Posts: 27Member
    Bart said

    As played I'd bet $1000. I would so seldom expect to ever see a raise--it would almost be shocking. This lady is going to raise you on the flop with the nuts, then just call the turn and now raise the river? Or she is going to raise you on the flop get scared of a higher flush on the turn and now decide to raise you on the river?
    Seems highly unlikely. But if she did jam I'd have to fold.

    I actually like check calling turn and bet folding river. Her smaller flop sizing indicates to me that this is a either a very nutty hand in which she wants to get value or a top pairish type of hand that she is trying to protect. I think that you can gain a lot about her strength through her turn sizing. If she follows up with a bet of less than $400, either check raise turn small or call and pot a non spade river.

    Bart
    On the turn, I was afraid of hands like 77,KJ,AsKh, even JJ/KK, checking behind.

    I think my call on the flop showed a lot of strength, and many TAGs will check in position with surprisingly strong hands on scary boards. The same hands they will check behind, they will call with, especially in position. My plan on the turn was therefore to c/f.

    I also think there are a ton of horrible river cards that I want to charge villain to see (any spade, K, J, 7, or T)
  • cl0r0x70 Posts: 27Member
    Just posted this on another forum, and thought it might be worthwhile to add it here.

    Let's approach this systematically, and really dig in.

    First, there are 13 reasonable combos of hands that would raise the flop and are beating me on the turn. I thought the number would be higher, but the board and my hand remove a lot of combos:
    AsQs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,As5s,As4s,As2s,QsTs,Qs9s,Ts8s, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s5s

    Obviously, betting the turn against that range is horrible. Let's assume I'll always get stacked for my remaining $3400 if I lead the turn, but only lose $1800 on average if I c/c c/c turn and river. Sometimes, villain will even kindly let me off the hook by raising my turn bet and allowing me to fold cheaply.

    There are 14 combos of big (2 pair+) made hands that will raise that flop as well. I discounted KK and JJ to only one combo apiece because they usually raise me preflop. I also completely discounted AsAx, AK, and QsQx in an effort to be conservative and keep the math simple(tho I'm pretty sure AK shows up here at least some of the time):
    KJ(9), KK(1), JJ(1), 77(3)

    Obviously, I need to bet for value against this range. Can we agree on that? I can't imagine a decent player folding any of these hands on the button on the turn, but taking it down right here is not the worst scenario either. I suppose we could think about a check/raise, but that could easily be a disaster if she checks through, and I doubt she's calling a c/r anyhow.

    There are also 13 combos of "big" draws:
    AsKh, AsKc, AsKd, AsQh, AsQc, AsQd, AsJh, AsJc, AsJd, AsTh,
    AsTc, AsTd,QsTh

    It's a sin to let these check through for much of the same reason as the big made hands. Again, many players will call at least one more street with this range, either drawing to the nuts in position or even the possibility that their straight might be good.

    There is one combo, 5s4s, that I completely dominate and absolutely should bet to extract max value.

    Of hands that would raise me on the flop: I'm behind 13 combos, and ahead of 28 combos. I'm dead to the 13 higher flushes, but a c/c c/c line (I'm never folding ffs) only costs me $1600 less than getting all my money in with a more aggressive b/c line.

    Therefore, I only have to extract an average of ~$750 more/hand (in the instances I'm leading) to make betting the turn more profitable than check/calling against villain's entire range. This can be achieved in a number of ways from these hands. I'm also confident that my reverse implied odds are pretty low because I can play nearly perfectly if a river spade or board pairing card hits.

    EDIT: It's late. There are likely some math or typo errors in the above. Please be kind!
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Interesting. A couple thoughts: I count 19 river cards (8 add'l spades, 3K, 3J, 3 7s, 2 non spade T) that could make your hand shrivel up on the river (I take your meaning that my reversed implied odds are pretty low means you would check/fold if this happens?) This is about 42% of unseen cards making it pretty likely that you'll be looking at a nasty board OOP at river, potentially with a bloated pot depending on how you play this (and perhaps stack sizes would require a call by then).

    The other question I have -- do you think it's equally likely for all of those combinations to raise you on the flop? I wonder about these 2 pair hands such as KJ. On a monotone board this kind of hand has a lot of showdown value and given you said you had a bluffy image, against you I would probably call in position with these kinds of hands -- I would consider that as well with the strong 1 pair + FD hands. I just think that by the time you bomb all 3 streets OOP, on every street you've progressively eliminated the hands you beat and have selected for the nuttier ones that beat you.

    To me, the key factor on how I would play this hand is that you are OOP with a hand with tons of showdown value. I see this as a bet/fold type of hand, but you've already taken that out of the strategy by calling the flop. I would try to get to showdown cheaper OOP - so I prefer as played the C/C turn B/F river line.
  • StopHammertimeStopHammertime Posts: 81Member
    I'm interested in the decision to call on the flop and lead the turn. It looks strange; maybe that's the point. Edit: Nevermind, somehow missed the post explaining it. I think it's weird and weak, but as such, I think it would be hilarious to play the nut flush this way.
  • cl0r0x70 Posts: 27Member
    shmed said

    Interesting. A couple thoughts: I count 19 river cards (8 add'l spades, 3K, 3J, 3 7s, 2 non spade T) that could make your hand shrivel up on the river (I take your meaning that my reversed implied odds are pretty low means you would check/fold if this happens?) This is about 42% of unseen cards making it pretty likely that you'll be looking at a nasty board OOP at river, potentially with a bloated pot depending on how you play this (and perhaps stack sizes would require a call by then).

    The other question I have -- do you think it's equally likely for all of those combinations to raise you on the flop? I wonder about these 2 pair hands such as KJ. On a monotone board this kind of hand has a lot of showdown value and given you said you had a bluffy image, against you I would probably call in position with these kinds of hands -- I would consider that as well with the strong 1 pair + FD hands. I just think that by the time you bomb all 3 streets OOP, on every street you've progressively eliminated the hands you beat and have selected for the nuttier ones that beat you.

    To me, the key factor on how I would play this hand is that you are OOP with a hand with tons of showdown value. I see this as a bet/fold type of hand, but you've already taken that out of the strategy by calling the flop. I would try to get to showdown cheaper OOP - so I prefer as played the C/C turn B/F river line.
    I agree. The river could be a bitch. All the more reason to bet, imo. The good news is that, depending on villain's holding, it could also be scary for her as well.

    As for KJ, I think it's counterintuitively more of a mandatory raise than KK because it almost never improves beyond two pair. But I think about the game differently than most.

    On the other hand, I think some flushes (especially the nuts) might choose to smooth call the flop.

    Overall, I think it evens out.
  • StopHammertimeStopHammertime Posts: 81Member
    What confuses me is how you can state that this hand is a +EV open given the situation, you flop huge, and you're conflicted on how to play it. It would seem that your claim that this is a +EV hand to play from your position is in question. I don't fault you for being unsure about how to play it - it's a genuinely tough spot where you're slightly ahead or way behind, and you can easily be bluffed off the best hand.

    I understand your desire to be quiet about why you feel this is a +EV situation, but this is where we're confused about it. You get a flop that seems pretty great for your hand and you don't know how to play it. How +EV can it really be?
  • cl0r0x70 Posts: 27Member
    StopHammertime said

    What confuses me is how you can state that this hand is a +EV open given the situation, you flop huge, and you're conflicted on how to play it. It would seem that your claim that this is a +EV hand to play from your position is in question. I don't fault you for being unsure about how to play it - it's a genuinely tough spot where you're slightly ahead or way behind, and you can easily be bluffed off the best hand.

    I understand your desire to be quiet about why you feel this is a +EV situation, but this is where we're confused about it. You get a flop that seems pretty great for your hand and you don't know how to play it. How +EV can it really be?
    Because I'm not against the opponents I was after.
  • WillWay Posts: 35Member
    B/c she appears to be TAGgish, and you're OOP with such weak holdings PF, you can extract value from her on the flop; a clear-bet fold is in order however if she ships. TAGs are never going with a hand on a monotone flop unless their range is really nutty. She specifically feels she is protecting from a flush draw here w/ something like a set (more likely 77 since she flatted, and further reduces your equity), or has a made flush.

    At 380 bigs, with these holdings the reverse implied odds are massive....balancing against opponents with 63s here could be much more effective from HJ,CO, or BTN.
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