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Counterfeit 2 pair on river vs maniac

Seananniganss Posts: 14SubscriberProfessional
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/2 Main v has $250 and I have him covered.

A little background info
Main v is a maniac. First hand he sits down..he straddles in CO (to my right). I'm on button with AQo and raise to $20. He ships for $100..I call and win. He shipped with 97o. He had been straddling/shipping every hand for the first 8 hands or so. He calmed down a little bit..by calming down I mean he was "only" open raising to $20-30 (non straddled) instead of shopping. He was also 3betting pretty much any raise attempt from other players. Then this happens.

He changed seats and is now about 3 to my left.
I'm sitting mid position with QJo. He's in CO with $250. I have him covered. I limp..intending to limp/call his raise because I know I'll be ahead of his range but don't want to get 3bet. He opens to $12. I call.

F: K,Q,7 rainbow. I check. He bets $20. I call
T: J rainbow. I check he bets $30 and I raise to $80 trying to induce him to ship over the top. He snap calls.
R: K. Hero?

What is our best option here? What could his turn bet/call indicate?

Comments

  • Seananniganss Posts: 14SubscriberProfessional
    Anyone?
  • GL2UALL Posts: 22Member
    If I did the math right you need 38% equity to call river. Its a really gross spot as played. IMO It is hard for him to show up with complete air in this hand since you check raised the turn on rainbow board and that looks super strong. It comes down to the ? of what he does with AJ, J10, Q10, 1010 etc. If you think hes shoving all that on river either as a bluff or value-owning himself you should check-call. If he is the type of maniac who isn't as maniacal on river and will check back those hands on river its probably a check-fold. The only other way its a call is if you believe he's calling your turn check-raise with the random 10x and Ax and then bluffing river. Maybe just me but I find that those type of maniacs are few and far between. I feel like the one hand that seems to be most likely here is precisely K10. That would explain every action he made in this hand. Hope this helps or gets someone else to respond that can because I always have a hard time in these situations as well.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    no need to bet obviously -- it's just a question of check-call or check-fold.... maniacal pre is vastly different from maniacal post in the face of strength from your opponent. how was he playing post flop? bet bet bet? did he slow down when played back at? his raise was only to 12, not 30, so has he completely toned it down? this is crucial to knowing how to assess this.... if he's as super aggro post as he is pre, i think you'd have had little choice but to call if he shoved on you. if it was heads up to the flop and he shoved river, there would be 355 or so in the pot, 135-ish to call. so you're getting like 2.6 to 1. gotta be good 1 out of 3.6 times. i doubt he's shoving any value hand worse than yours, so it's a matter of whether he has the king or the straight.... i agree with GL that he shouldn't do this with air since you've shown such strength, but with certain players checking the river and giving them a chance to rep trips here is almost irresistible to them..... so if he's demonstrated any degree of river bluffing like this, then i think it's safe you'd be good often enough to call.... but need a little more input on how he has "calmed down" in his river play.... i think pre, flop and turn are fine....
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    GL2UALL said

    If I did the math right you need 38% equity to call river.
    Quick nitpick: You would need 27.6% equity to call if he were to shove the river, not 38%.

    138/(362+138)=.276

    It looks like you forgot to add 138 to the denominator.
  • Seananniganss Posts: 14SubscriberProfessional
    He was a maniac post flop too. Taking bet bet bet lines with air. He was raising donks. Unfortunately I don't know how he acts towards aggression since I was the first one to raise him post flop.
  • GL2UALL Posts: 22Member
    OminousCow said
    GL2UALL said

    If I did the math right you need 38% equity to call river.
    Quick nitpick: You would need 27.6% equity to call if he were to shove the river, not 38%.

    138/(362+138)=.276

    It looks like you forgot to add 138 to the denominator.
    Are you sure you didn't add the 138 twice to the denominator? I got 138/(224+138), or 138/362 which = 38.1% is that not correct?confused
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    GL2UALL said
    OminousCow said
    GL2UALL said

    If I did the math right you need 38% equity to call river.
    Quick nitpick: You would need 27.6% equity to call if he were to shove the river, not 38%.

    138/(362+138)=.276

    It looks like you forgot to add 138 to the denominator.
    Are you sure you didn't add the 138 twice to the denominator? I got 138/(224+138), or 138/362 which = 38.1% is that not correct?confused
    have to be good 1 out of 3.6 times = have to be good like 28% of the time..... 38% comes from the pot odds -- it's a pot of 355, and 135 to call, so you're getting 2.6 to 1, and 1 divided by 2.6=38%.... but you need to figure out how often you need to be good, and you need to be good 28% of the time.... but i usually like to think of it as just 1 out of however many times....
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    Seananniganss said

    He was a maniac post flop too. Taking bet bet bet lines with air. He was raising donks. Unfortunately I don't know how he acts towards aggression since I was the first one to raise him post flop.
    with these observations, i think i have to call.
  • GL2UALL Posts: 22Member
    Thats right thanks floppedawheel. Going on 2 hrs sleep played all night.
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