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running out of fold equity @2/5 100bb

marseille Posts: 400Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
This hand came up yesterday and reminded me how I am often running out of f/e by turn in capped games when I c/r flop. Can I ever have any show down value here? Can I ever have any f/e? Is this just bad play given stack sizes? Or should I just c/r more?

2/5, 400 effective

H raises to 40 in sb with 7heart7diamond against 5 limpers, 5 way to flop

Flop: Qheart5heart8club ($200). Checked to Button who bets 65, I raise to 185, EP+2 cold calls, everyone else folds.

Turn: Qheart5heart8club9diamond ($635). Check/check

River: Qheart5heart8club9diamond5spade ($635). H has $175.

Things to note: Obviously I thought this pot was ripe for taking (debatable as always). I know the player on button well- he's decent winner with some exploitable tendencies. Here, he never has strong hand (tpgk is raising more, draws checking) and will buy a c/r line from me repping overpair/set/tptk. No reason for anyone else to limp big hand on this flop so I was hoping to shut out draws with c/r. After EP+2 calls (no reads other than usual passive/inexperienced) I assume most likely holding was 8hxh that is never folding turn but who probably has my 77 beat. The river leaves me in a quandary. After checking turn, I felt I was going to get looked up if I shoved for 175 more with a hand as weak as an 8. I thought my f/e was slim. Does the lack of good options here mean I screwed this hand up? Should I simply size my c/r bigger on flop? I just felt hamstrung by stack size and was kicking myself for playing a hand where I ran out of ammo. Bad planning? Is aggressive flop play more sticky in these capped games? All advice welcome


  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    $400 at 2/5 = 80bb

    don't raise pre

    size your bets so you don't get in a situation where you have like a ~1/4 PSB left on a future street with a hand you feel that you need to bluff with. If you absolutely insist on bluffing this flop into 5 players which I would not recommend, just go all in.
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    You've got 80BB effective, which gives you even less room to maneuver than 100.

    I prefer to flat 77 in the SB, and play to set-mine. Given 80BB, once you raise to 6BB PF you are further limiting your ability to maneuver post.

    I think the flop is pretty wet and is not favorable to elicit FE vs. 5 people that have called a raise, especially in a bloated pot PF (and I think this limp/call cascade is pretty common at these stakes). People who have called for the FD or SD potential will not fold at this point, even vs. a CR. So I wouldn't have picked this board to C/R, but I understand you had a read. If the button was FOS you could also call and evaluate on the turn where there is generally more FE vs. draws.

    Once you the "obvious" OESD comes on turn (giving you a gut shot), given your aggressive flop line, I think this is a turn shove. FDs or weak queens are a huge part of both Vs range. Yes 67 got there, but you have 2 7s as blockers. Once you check raise the flop to half your stack, you are taking a high variance line and you need to follow up on the story you told on the flop. True, these hands may still not fold, but I think you should be thinking that these are the kind of players that would when you elect to C/R the flop.

    As played, none of the draws got there. At this point your action is read dependent. Do you think they would fold a Q to this kind of bet? My guess is no in a vacuum. I would default to check/fold (I don't think you have much FE with theses stacks), but in special circumstances would consider a check/call vs. a missed bluff if you get that in-real-time read.
  • marseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    Yeah, good points guys. Not usually a great spot to c/r with # of players @80bb. Usually I'm content to set mine here but I did think this specific pot was for the taking. Clearly a mistake to not anticipate needing to double barrel on later street. Even a 1/2 psb would probably have been enough.

    From the perspective of someone playing in smaller pool @ 100bb with no table selection, trying to work on game by looking for soft spots is tough. I agree with Bart and David that it is a race to pump your stack up but when everyone is playing around 60-100bb, it doesn't really matter. Likewise, even with better conditions (fewer people in hand, better position and equity), it's hard to work more advanced flop play into game, especially with semibluffs where you really need to anticipate firing a second or even third barrel. This leads me to size my raises smaller, which in turn decreases my fold equity. Very frustrating for those of us not playing in 200bb games.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    The moral of this thread is: don't use fancy plays that rely heavily on fold equity at 80 BBs effective.
    Also, don't bluff raise flops that 5-6 players saw with almost no equity.
  • marseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    chilidog said

    The moral of this thread is: don't use fancy plays that rely heavily on fold equity at 80 BBs effective.
    Also, don't bluff raise flops that 5-6 players saw with almost no equity.
    Thanks for clarifying that. Really helpful.
  • 3aces Posts: 155Subscriber
    no fancy play at 80bb effective and flat pre flop 100 percent agree
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    marseille said
    chilidog said

    The moral of this thread is: don't use fancy plays that rely heavily on fold equity at 80 BBs effective.
    Also, don't bluff raise flops that 5-6 players saw with almost no equity.
    Thanks for clarifying that. Really helpful.
    i wasn't trying to be an ass, but this is one of those hands where you shouldn't be in this predicament. what i was saying is that it is generally not a strong strategy to make bluffing a primary staple of your game when you are under 100 bigs.

    especially in a hand like this one where the pot is super inflated due to your preflop raise and several callers. yes, it is a pot worth taking down, but no it is not wise to bluff a board like this when so many people saw the flop.

    if you really have to try to win this pot, then c/r much bigger on the flop (maybe it's a shove***). i'm not sure what you were thinking when you c/r so small into such a big pot, but what that raise is typically going to accomplish is to build a very large pot with very small effective stacks behind, leaving with you with little to no way to win, other than to hit the 11:1 shot 7 ball.

    *** pot is $265 after V bets the flop, and with your call + raise : $265 + 65 = $330. You made a ~1/3 pot sized raise with $120 more. a pot sized raise would be $330 + 65, so $395, which is less than effective stacks behind anyway.
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