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flopped boat, facing river raise

fogodchao Posts: 104Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 MD Live!

V (1300) CO: Mid to late thirties guy who has been talking some poker strat, not totally clueless. Pretty splashy and loose pre flop. Was recently opening extremely wide ip, but has slowed down the last hour or so and started over limping some of his more speculative hands like Axs, suited gappers ect, but still imagine he is opening a decently wide range ip. Have seen him essentially min raise for value in spots where normally people are just calling, such as min raising with A9 on a 9xx board facing a bet from a field player (can't remember if this was a limped pot or if he was the pre flop aggressor).

Hero (covers) SB: Been playing very tight, and V announced this to the table and requested that I begin playing more hands (this was about two hours before this hand takes place). Asked if I was a nut peddler, to which I responded that what he does with nuts in the bedroom is his own business, but please leave me out of it laugh

Pre: 2 ep limps, V limps in the CO, BTN (stationy fish) limps, I complete Jspade9spade SB, BB checks

Flop (30): Jclub9heart9diamond
I lead 20, V calls, BTN calls.

Turn (90): 4club
I lead 65, V calls, BTN folds

River (220): Kdiamond
I lead 180, V raises to 600.

I don't recall V over valuing hands in any real blatant way, nor having it in him to execute any large bluffs in the time i've been playing with him.

If it is possible he is raising with worse for value, what do you make of the large sizing? In most of your experiences, do you notice thinking players making a smaller raise with a hand like QT otr here?

Would you think that he would raise on either the flop or the turn with 9x some of the time, or does my line look strong enough that he may just enter call mode?
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Comments

  • ScottyScotty Posts: 48Subscriber
    The only hand that beats you is K9. JJ and KK raise preflop.

    You need the best hand >30% of the time to make the call profitable. With only one hand that beats you and the random things that I see live players do, I would call. he could be overplaying QT or 94 or rando spazing with something.
  • ScottyScotty Posts: 48Subscriber
    actually looking at it more closely there are no combos of 94s that can make a boat and he probably folds 94o pre. assuming he always raises the river with K9 (3comobos) and J9(2 combos). that gives you 20% equity guaranteed. But he raises J9 on flop or turn pretty often I imagine. so we will discount that by half. so you have 12.5% "guaranteed" equity. You just need to pick up another 18% from QT and spews.. maybe A9. Its probably pretty close, but i would still call.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    When I first read this post I said.. snap call. and why?

    BECAUSE NO ONE BETS FLOPPED BOATS..

    when you did this villain figured no way you have a boat.. so I think there is a very good chance he thinks you have at best a 9 and he would raise with QT because he thinks he outdrew you. I would lean towards calling here just because of that..

    Also lets step back a bit and see what hands beat us.. JJ and KK would villain limp preflop in the cutoff with those two hands? I dont think so.. would villain limp with QT or 44? Yes I do.. This is the basis of hand reading.. I feel its very very unlikely that villain is bluffing here.. that said I thinks its almost impossible for him to have a better value hand (with the exception of K9).. so I would call.. if he has K9 suited then there has only two combos of that (K9hh and K9cc) why? because the 9 dias is on the board and you have the 9 spades.. only two combos of likely hands beat you and everything else you beat..

    call

    ww
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    One thing I will add.. Have you seen villain raise on a paired board before with just say trips or a straight? Have you seen him super slowplay trips? or a full house? these thing would alter my judgement of his potentially having K9..

    If he NEVER raises without a full house then he has to have a fullhouse. that leaves J9 same as you , K9 or 44.. it might still be a call because K9 is the only thing that beats you but you would know his range is narrower than what I assumed above..

    ww
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,386Subscriber
    Although I am probably calling here, this bet on the end is so polarized, and is a perfect bet. Straights are not raising you in this spot. And if they are it s not 3x+ . He either has you beat with JJ or K9 or it's stone value bet bluff. Essentially the. V has committed 50% of his stack here. Who does that 260bb deep? I'm curious to know how the V responded to your bets otf and ott. Was it quick or did eh tank call. OTR, was it a measured raise or done quickly?
  • fogodchao Posts: 104Subscriber
    Thehammah said

    One thing I will add.. Have you seen villain raise on a paired board before with just say trips or a straight? Have you seen him super slowplay trips? or a full house? these thing would alter my judgement of his potentially having K9..

    If he NEVER raises without a full house then he has to have a fullhouse. that leaves J9 same as you , K9 or 44.. it might still be a call because K9 is the only thing that beats you but you would know his range is narrower than what I assumed above..

    ww
    With only about the five hr sample we had together, there were only a few spots that could somewhat dictate how he would play this hand with various holdings.

    Mentioned he essentially min raised with A9 on a 9xx flop when a field better lead, but can't remember if it was a raised pot or not.

    But for the most part, as with most live opponents, he wasn't any sort thin value better in a way that stood out, hadn't seen him value own himself once since I sat with him, and definitely saw him check back some medium strength hands that he didn't even consider betting otr for value
  • fogodchao Posts: 104Subscriber
    Brudre21 said

    Although I am probably calling here, this bet on the end is so polarized, and is a perfect bet. Straights are not raising you in this spot. And if they are it s not 3x+ . He either has you beat with JJ or K9 or it's stone value bet bluff. Essentially the. V has committed 50% of his stack here. Who does that 260bb deep? I'm curious to know how the V responded to your bets otf and ott. Was it quick or did eh tank call. OTR, was it a measured raise or done quickly?
    Flop call was in stride, turn he tanked for a little, but I'm not a huge live tells guy, so didn't really pick up on whether he was thinking about folding, raising, or hollywooding.

    River was measured out slowly and calculated. definitely wasn't a snap raise
  • fogodchao Posts: 104Subscriber
    Also curious what you guys think about an over bet otr.

    When I was reviewing the hand, I thought this river was ripe for an over bet IF I was very sure that this V would never raise with worse, which is possible if he doesn't raise/fold for value when deep, since everyone is scared of putting their stack at risk when they are deep without the nuts.

    If you can narrow his range otr to 9x and QT, both of which would have an extremely tough time folding since its pretty rare for someone to fold trips to a lead/lead/lead line no matter how strong it looks, I think a bet of 300 might be best.

    Could also potentially have the side effect of making it a more clear b/f.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    Because you bet your full house I dont think you should have the thought of bet folding the river. This is soooo confusing to an opponent I think it very likely that they would assume you dont have a full house and might overvalue their hand... that said if you were super deep say 300-400 bbs then you would have to consider this..

    One thing I will mention that would have been good to know before is you said he hadnt made any thin value bets "like everyone else" This is important because at first you said that he was talking strategy at the table.. so his min raise with A9 on a 9xx board was a "see where I am" type of bet then? This would narrow his range quite a bit I would say and make this big a raise more unlikely with QT..

    So that leaves us with a boat.. would he limp with KK JJ or K9.. that is the question.. If he is only limping with K9 then I still think its a call but only a call. hmmm,,, well lemme thing on that. If he was a good player I would think if you shoved nothing worse is calling you. But there is a naked 9 and 44s that might call.. so if he is a worse player you might think about just shoving.. but understand you are doing this regardless because he will call you with worse its just a matter of how often you think he has KK JJ or K9.. if you think he does have these hands more often then maybe you just call. but I would have had to have seen this before to even think of folding...

    ww
  • fogodchao Posts: 104Subscriber
    This opponent will pretty much never end up with JJs or KKs otr since he should be opening pre with them from lp probably 100% of the time.

    In regards to value betting thinly, should have clarified, I meant on later streets. In that, I've seen him check back some hands with sd value without even considering a bet for value since he could just take a cheap showdown.

    On the flop though he was much more willing to bet, or raise as in the A9 hand, for thinner value
  • BartBart Posts: 5,725AdministratorLeadPro
    Seems pretty unlikely/almost impossible that the villain could have 44. The flop is J99 and Hero leads into four people. There isn't even a flush draw on the board and he still has a guy left to act behind him.

    He basically can only have K9 or QT. And for the reasons I dealt with in SO 63 “Reality of Combinations” I would ship all-in. Really it comes down to the percentage of times you think he might make this play for value with QT or worse. If it is over 10% of the time (when he actually has these hands, not 10% of the total situation) then it’s a ship. Have a listen now--I spent almost 40 minutes on it.

    Bart
  • fogodchao Posts: 104Subscriber
    Bart said

    Seems pretty unlikely/almost impossible that the villain could have 44. The flop is J99 and Hero leads into four people. There isn't even a flush draw on the board and he still has a guy left to act behind him.

    He basically can only have K9 or QT. And for the reasons I dealt with in SO 63 “Reality of Combinations” I would ship all-in. Really it comes down to the percentage of times you think he might make this play for value with QT or worse. If it is over 10% of the time (when he actually has these hands, not 10% of the total situation) then it’s a ship. Have a listen now--I spent almost 40 minutes on it.

    Bart
    Great, thanks for the reply. Podcast couldn't have come at a better time, been working on this aspect of my game recently and still have a lot of uncertainties.

    Even as he raised, I remember thinking in my head, "This could very possibly be a ship here", but was unsure as to how to determine if it was a profitable ship, so just ended up calling.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    Bart said

    Seems pretty unlikely/almost impossible that the villain could have 44. The flop is J99 and Hero leads into four people. There isn't even a flush draw on the board and he still has a guy left to act behind him.

    He basically can only have K9 or QT. And for the reasons I dealt with in SO 63 “Reality of Combinations” I would ship all-in. Really it comes down to the percentage of times you think he might make this play for value with QT or worse. If it is over 10% of the time (when he actually has these hands, not 10% of the total situation) then it’s a ship. Have a listen now--I spent almost 40 minutes on it.

    Bart
    I heard that on your podcast. I see alot of loose players calling a 20 dollar flop bet hoping to hit their set for a full house. I would consider adding some percentage for this. maybe it still doesnt come out to 1 combo but I dont think its zero.. really depends on how loose this guy really is.

    ww
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    cmon man your killing me.. what did you do? result pretty please

    ww
  • ScottyScotty Posts: 48Subscriber
    I think QT folds to a river ship too often to make shipping the river better than calling. Villain has $600 behind after his raise. He will be getting a good price at $600 to win $2,000 BUT $600 is still a large absolute bet size and people will find folds. Against bad enough players i can see a ship but against someone who isn't a moron, I don't like it.
  • fogodchao Posts: 104Subscriber
    lol, I try and not post results often but since you asked so nicely :)

    As Bart pointed out, my thought process at the time is probably incorrect, but I tanked and debated shipping for about a minute, and finally settled on the fact that I thought his sizing was indicative of probably only K9 and 94s and ended up just calling and he showed K9.

    If he had made it 500 or less, I'm probably shipping (or possibly essentially min raising if I expect he could fold QT some of the time for 700+ more) since I then think he has QT a much larger percentage of the time.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    K9 offsuit?

    cooler man .. bummer nothing you could do there.. well played..

    ww
  • BartBart Posts: 5,725AdministratorLeadPro
    Thehammah said
    Bart said

    Seems pretty unlikely/almost impossible that the villain could have 44. The flop is J99 and Hero leads into four people. There isn't even a flush draw on the board and he still has a guy left to act behind him.

    He basically can only have K9 or QT. And for the reasons I dealt with in SO 63 “Reality of Combinations” I would ship all-in. Really it comes down to the percentage of times you think he might make this play for value with QT or worse. If it is over 10% of the time (when he actually has these hands, not 10% of the total situation) then it’s a ship. Have a listen now--I spent almost 40 minutes on it.

    Bart
    I heard that on your podcast. I see alot of loose players calling a 20 dollar flop bet hoping to hit their set for a full house. I would consider adding some percentage for this. maybe it still doesnt come out to 1 combo but I dont think its zero.. really depends on how loose this guy really is.



    ww
    Even more of a reason to ship then.

    Bart
  • BartBart Posts: 5,725AdministratorLeadPro
    Scotty said

    I think QT folds to a river ship too often to make shipping the river better than calling. Villain has $600 behind after his raise. He will be getting a good price at $600 to win $2,000 BUT $600 is still a large absolute bet size and people will find folds. Against bad enough players i can see a ship but against someone who isn't a moron, I don't like it.
    I couldn't disagree more. If you are up against players that are capable of raise-folding for value then, fine, just call. But at this level I would expect literally less than 5% of the player pool to be able to do this. People don't raise and then fold with a strong hand on the river. If they were worried about not having what they thought was the best holding then they would just call. I can count the number of times on one hand I've seen a raise-fold with a second nut type of hand at 5-10 and below and I've been playing for 10 years. Granted sometimes these folds might not be shown down but I think LATB is a pretty good sampling of what actually goes on at the table. Even skewed a little more towards "good play" because people want to look smart on camera.

    The other important variable in this hand is the raise sizing on the river. Some way argue, with merit, that value hands worse than K9 so rarely size their raise here to $600 that we start to slip into the 29-50% range of being good here making this a call--or against nuttier/nittier type of opponents possibly a fold.

    Bart

    Bart
  • BradleyT Posts: 621Subscriber
    Haven't listened to the podcast yet but I disagree that he never has 44 after the flop. It's only $20 to call and so many people would peel there trying to make their full house with stacks this deep. However I don't think he plays the turn that way once he does make an underfull so I discount it because of that but not because of the $20 to call on the flop.
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