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Is this a bit too thin?

UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain is the main reason I was sitting at this game. He's super loose from all positions, almost never folds his BB or straddle, and rarely puts anyone to super though decisions post-flop.

My image is:
People tend not to believe me when I make any type of bet, especially this villain. I find this odd, because I'm a younger clean-looking girl who you would expect to be weak-tight.
I have no idea why I look like I'm bluffing all the time.

~1700 effective
Villain straddles UTG for 20
Folded to tight-passive old guy in MP who limps
I kind of want to play HU against UTG, so I make it 100 from the CO with 88
Villain defends his straddle (as expected)
Old guy folds (as expected)

Flop:
J 3 J rainbow

Villain checks
Hero bets 80
Villain quickly calls

Turn:
5

Villain checks
Hero bets 175
Villain quickly calls as if he's not planning to fold

River:
J

Villain quickly checks like he still thinks he has the best hand

My analysis here is that this guy is definitely not going to believe I have a J, now that the third J is on the board. He doesn't believe me, so he might call with any pair or even A high, and he's not the type to turn something into a bluff and represent quad J's

Hero bets 680
Of course, I might be value owning against 99 or TT, but for somebody who defends his straddle with 75% of hands, these hands seem unlikely
Is this a little too big? I was trying to use psychology to make him think I had either quad J's or a bluff.

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Claire

    If you think that villains calling range is inelastic.. meaning he is either calling the river or folding then I like your bet. You are polarizing the bet amount but the bet itself isnt polarized.. You actually might get called lighter..

    If the villain does have a elastic calling range then I think the bet is too much.. Betting something like 250 would seem like you can get worse to call you. And if you are raised you can so easily fold..

    Wendy
  • StopHammertimeStopHammertime Posts: 81Member
    A few years ago I would make these quick calls, which were usually because I was bluff-catching the entire way. I'm trying to take out the quick-call element now because I think it's a bit obvious to the person that I'm calling; it looks transparently like you're trying to slow them down, and if I think they're bluffing, I don't want them to slow down.

    The board, the description of Villain, and your assessment of your image has made it such that I think AT is the worst hand trying to bluff-catch you. You say that you have an image of someone who never has it, and that you're sitting in this game because of this guy. From his perspective, perhaps it seems as if you're attacking his straddle (which he's prone to defend) and that you're a bluffy, aggressive player. It seems credible that he's bluff-catching you.

    Unfortunately, if you're bluff-catching against a player, you're playing similarly to how you'd slow-play against an aggressive player as well.
    That is, you let people put the money in when they're behind. There's only one J left but I think he plays it this way, too.

    I think I like betting on the river, but I'm ambivalent about the sizing. If we really think he's bluff-catching, then that is a vote for your sizing. But sometimes he's going to have TT or 99 here and that's just the way it is.

    What do you think his range is after he calls the turn and checks the river? It seems like QQ-55,33,AJs-ATs,KJs,QJs,JTs,ATo+,KJo,QJo, though maybe he re-raises QQ and AJs+ out of the straddle. And ATo+ might be a bit too wide of a range, ha. You're 65% against that so I'm partial to a bet/fold line. Maybe a $325 bet on the river is in order.

    Bart has recently talked on the podcasts about not putting people all-in on the river, because it gives them the comfort of being able to play the next hand, and make calls they otherwise wouldn't make. I'm ambivalent about that but it's a concept I want to try in the future so I can better assess it. Maybe that's something to consider here.

    Your sizing on the flop relative to the pot is interesting, but perhaps it was wise so as to get smaller pairs and Ax to call. It also sets up your bets later to be fairly well sized.

    Anyway, I don't think the bet is too thin here, but I bet bottom two on a four-to-a-straight board last weekend. I am a big fan of thin value betting. If there's a problem here, I think it's with your river bet sizing, not with your attempt to get called by worse on the river. I think I have a similar problem in that I bet fairly thinly and think that's appropriate, but my sizing is often too large.

    ---

    Edit: A few hours later, I think ATo is a bit too wide; maybe it's AQs that this guy would call you down with as far as A-high hands goes, and that may be too wide. With the size of your bet, getting a call from A-high is asking a bit much. So I think you're doing much worse against his calling range than I initially suspected; I was assessing what he'd see the river with and not what he'd call the river with, which is what we're really interested in. I've narrowed it down to pocket pairs 6's and higher, sets, and JTs+/QJo+ and you're losing against most of that. If you bet here I think it should be on the smaller side.
  • Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
    I guess I am the lone dissenting voice....and I might be way off base Laugh

    I'm not sure that I agree with the preflop raise. You have described the V as super loose and defending the BB/straddle etc... You mentioned that he won't put you in mnay awkward sots, but calling every street has done just that.

    I really think it might be better long term to use the positional advantage that we have and see a flop. I know that I occasionally go a bit overboard when playing with a complete moron that I know is going to go broke. I've put myself in awkward positions in an attempt to isolate and outplay the V, when patience and value betting will accomplish the same thing with much less variance and tricky spots.

    The flop worked out, but what would you do if it came KJ4, AT6ss, etc...?

    From a SPR standpoint, your pf raise puts the hand at an SPR of about 6.8, which is an awkward number to play with for a hand that you are most often going to hit middle pair with. Sometimes with loose players, playing big pots allows them to play their hands well against you because of the lack of thought that can go into each situation. I'd rather just call in position and have room to maneuver the hand depending on the flop. Every hand doesn't have to be for stacks.
  • grindbler Posts: 131Member
    with your image as described, i think its fine. 88 has a lot of value when you are expected to be FOS, and w/ the straddle on it, the stacks are shallower, so i think it even goes up in value...
    with your read, as played , on the river its turned into a pretty nutted hand relative to his range, and you can get called by worse.
    if your read is that hes not folding, then i like the river bet size.
    if he folds, then you dont have to show, which is good
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    88 just misses my isolation range in this spot.

    We have little to no fold equity so I expect to be barreling a lot versus this villain.

    If that's the case I want to open hands that have barrel equity and/or make strong pairs as I will often be betting flop and turn.

    I would be more comfortable isolating with 910dd here.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I don't want fold equity pre. I want to play the hand in position against the garbage he defends with. I raised with 88 pre, because I knew that if he had anything somewhat connected or anything with one card Q+, he would defend his straddle. If he defends with two unders, which he would have a lot of the time, I have over 80% equity. If he defends with one under and one over, I have about 70% equity

    He wouldn't think there was anything weird about my small flop bet on that kind of board because I always bet less than half pot on super dry boards, as I believe it gives me the best price to pick up the pot when he misses completely

    So, anyway, what happened after the bet:
    I think he snaps me if I make a normal sized bet

    But then he cursed at me to stop following him to bully him. We were at a 2/5 while he was waiting for a 5/10, and when they started a must move, he got a seat. And right after he moved, I put myself on the list. Now I think he's trying to avoid me.
    I'm guess unskillful in making the fish want to play me :P

    He chucked his A7o after some deliberation at the dealer saying that he knew I didn't have a J but I could have been "bluffing with a better Ace"
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    you iso-raise with a small-mid pair, and bet three streets with a de-polarized range, and want to project a weak tight image?? there is a lot more to image than your appearance. it only takes a few hands for players to realize that you are not a meek little girl. you are seen as bluffy / never having it based on the type of play you made in this hand: most live players will take a showdown or bet small with 88 on the river.

    i think he might bluff catch up to about $475. though the $680 does well as an apparent polarized bet, people have limits. some are convinced more easily than others.

    EDIT: i wrote this post before i saw post #7 fwiw.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Zach Z-H said

    I guess I am the lone dissenting voice....and I might be way off base Laugh

    I'm not sure that I agree with the preflop raise. You have described the V as super loose and defending the BB/straddle etc... You mentioned that he won't put you in mnay awkward sots, but calling every street has done just that.

    I really think it might be better long term to use the positional advantage that we have and see a flop. I know that I occasionally go a bit overboard when playing with a complete moron that I know is going to go broke. I've put myself in awkward positions in an attempt to isolate and outplay the V, when patience and value betting will accomplish the same thing with much less variance and tricky spots.

    The flop worked out, but what would you do if it came KJ4, AT6ss, etc...?

    From a SPR standpoint, your pf raise puts the hand at an SPR of about 6.8, which is an awkward number to play with for a hand that you are most often going to hit middle pair with. Sometimes with loose players, playing big pots allows them to play their hands well against you because of the lack of thought that can go into each situation. I'd rather just call in position and have room to maneuver the hand depending on the flop. Every hand doesn't have to be for stacks.
    i have liked many of your previous posts, but this one does seem off base, no offense. i think the iso is beyond standard, especially when the villian is defending so widely from the straddle. him snap calling our bets hardly puts hero in an awkward spot. he has fallen into our trap by defending with crap and calling down with no piece.

    hero is betting for value on every street. we are not trying to get him to fold. he has a big range of crap, let's see how much value we can get from his K3 / A9o type hands. making money in poker is about exploiting poor tendencies. here we have a guy that might call with with a pair of 5s and you don't want to inflate the pot?
  • Fish Fryer Posts: 161Member
    chilidog said
    Zach Z-H said

    I guess I am the lone dissenting voice....and I might be way off base Laugh

    I'm not sure that I agree with the preflop raise. You have described the V as super loose and defending the BB/straddle etc... You mentioned that he won't put you in mnay awkward sots, but calling every street has done just that.

    I really think it might be better long term to use the positional advantage that we have and see a flop. I know that I occasionally go a bit overboard when playing with a complete moron that I know is going to go broke. I've put myself in awkward positions in an attempt to isolate and outplay the V, when patience and value betting will accomplish the same thing with much less variance and tricky spots.

    The flop worked out, but what would you do if it came KJ4, AT6ss, etc...?

    From a SPR standpoint, your pf raise puts the hand at an SPR of about 6.8, which is an awkward number to play with for a hand that you are most often going to hit middle pair with. Sometimes with loose players, playing big pots allows them to play their hands well against you because of the lack of thought that can go into each situation. I'd rather just call in position and have room to maneuver the hand depending on the flop. Every hand doesn't have to be for stacks.
    i have liked many of your previous posts, but this one does seem off base, no offense. i think the iso is beyond standard, especially when the villian is defending so widely from the straddle. him snap calling our bets hardly puts hero in an awkward spot. he has fallen into our trap by defending with crap and calling down with no piece.

    hero is betting for value on every street. we are not trying to get him to fold. he has a big range of crap, let's see how much value we can get from his K3 / A9o type hands. making money in poker is about exploiting poor tendencies. here we have a guy that might call with with a pair of 5s and you don't want to inflate the pot?

    No problem, it takes more than that to offend me. I'm up for a discussion, even when wrong, anytime. Ultimately, we are all here because we want to improve our games and I need all the help I can get.

    Perhaps it is a flaw in my game, but no, I don't really want to inflate the pot preflop here. IMO, if we were looking at the hand without knowing the flop, we have a close to even equity against a V that plays a "big range of crap". With 88, there are so many flops that can come and make life complicated for us if V shows any initiative I'd be just as happy using my post flop advantage, my positional advantage etc... Aside from an 8 hitting the flop, or a flop like our hero just got, what other flops are you excited about and feeling like we are ahead of? If I go into Pokerstove and give V's range the top 65% of hands, which really is a ton of garbage and I don't know how realistic it is, and enter random flops that don't have an 8, we are never more than 60/40 ahead and often even. If I am going to play an inflated pot against a V that isn't really going to fold much, I guess I would rather play hands that can lead to bigger hands than middle pair against V's craptastic range.

    Given the flop, turn, etc... I'm not knocking the play at all. I just think preflop, I would have played it differently. That's not to say I am correct, because I louse it up all the time.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    I've had my first cup of coffee this morning and now think Isolating this player is optimal.

    I really like your sizing on the flop and turn too.
  • StopHammertimeStopHammertime Posts: 81Member
    Claire said
    ...

    He wouldn't think there was anything weird about my small flop bet on that kind of board because I always bet less than half pot on super dry boards, as I believe it gives me the best price to pick up the pot when he misses completely

    So, anyway, what happened after the bet:
    I think he snaps me if I make a normal sized bet

    He chucked his A7o after some deliberation at the dealer saying that he knew I didn't have a J but I could have been "bluffing with a better Ace"
    Wow, this makes me think my initial assumptions about ATo being in his calling range may have been correct after all. What do you think is the worst ace he calls you with here, given what you know about him now? Do you think he calls you with 22 or 44?

    Edit: Also, I have tried your smaller flop bets before and I like it against players who don't understand pot size or keep track of such things.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Claire,

    I played with a very similar player last night and I agree with you isolating 88. If someone is defending straddles, in the case of my villain hands as bad as 24 off, 88 has a ton of equity. Also, it's not like he'll be putting a ton of pressure on you when you check back flops right? On A104 is he going to turn 69 into a bluff that often?

    On the river I think $680 may be too much unless you have a read other wise.

    Warm Regards,

    Michael
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