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I've seen Aesah do this before....

YoungGrinder Posts: 210Subscriber
I titled the thread as such because I've seen Aesah specifically post about this type of hand in this PG&C thread on 2p2.

$1/$2 PLO with the $5 bring-in as usual

I've only been at the table maybe 3 orbits tops. I've played 1 other hand where I raised preflop and bet 3 streets where V folded on river.
I've played the fewest number of hands of anyone at the table and should be perceived as relatively tight.
Nearly all V's appear at least to be decent PLO players and have the ability to do some minor ranging and disciplined folding.
All the real big spots have busted out or chip/ran.
I was planning to leave the game due to it being only an average game when this spot came up.

We are 7 handed. Most players have me covered. Eff Stacks ($750)
UTG limps. MP pots to 25. At the time, I thought this player was all-in.
(He had lost the previous hand and had 25 left. He actually had pulled out 500 more in greens.)
This is sort of irrelevant though as I'd play the hand the same way.
HJ calls. Hero in CO raises to 100 with KK97ddss. BTN folds. SB calls. UTG calls. MP calls. HJ calls.

My plan was to pot most Ace high and King high flops especially if there was no flush draw.

Flop: A 10d 4 r ($500+)
Checks to me. I pot it.

Thoughts if this is +EV against V's that I believe are folding all non-wrap, non-top2+ hands?

Comments

  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    I'd say this is villain dependent, and you seem to know them well.

    Arguments against doing this is that you have 4 opponents (so odds go up that at least one could have those hands you describe that won't fold), and that you are only $650 deep after you raise to $100. I would like your play better if you were deeper so you had better FE to leverage.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    in a 3 bet pot with 5 players seeing the flop, i think you are throwing away money by potting the flop with no equity if called (usually). the only hands that you are ahead of that might consider calling are KQJx and 235x, and you block the Kings obv. i might consider doing this if 2 or maybe 3 people saw the flop, but with 5, it is just too likely that someone connected strongly enough to continue.

    i probably don't 3bet KK97 pre anyway, as i'm content to see the flop and proceed a little bit more ABC than trying to rep the nuts into 5 people. also, how often would you think your preflop 3bet takes down the pot now? i'm guessing about 30%.
  • YoungGrinder Posts: 210Subscriber
    chilidog said

    in a 3 bet pot with 5 players seeing the flop, i think you are throwing away money by potting the flop with no equity if called (usually). the only hands that you are ahead of that might consider calling are KQJx and 235x, and you block the Kings obv. i might consider doing this if 2 or maybe 3 people saw the flop, but with 5, it is just too likely that someone connected strongly enough to continue.

    i probably don't 3bet KK97 pre anyway, as i'm content to see the flop and proceed a little bit more ABC than trying to rep the nuts into 5 people. also, how often would you think your preflop 3bet takes down the pot now? i'm guessing about 30%.
    I actually think that it rarely if ever takes it down preflop. These players were a little loose preflop so I thought I'd get at least 2 callers.
    Thanks for the thoughts.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    This is a similar spot to the very first hand I discuss (like 1 minute in) the podcast from Macau here: http://www.seatopenpoker.net/plo-hhs-from-macau/

    That said, there are two key factors that makes bluffing this flop 5-ways much, much worse than the Macau hand I talked about in the podcast:

    1) MP, who raised preflop, is all-in for HALF THE POT. This is by far the more important of the two factors and is extremely, extremely significant. Yes, it could be tilt from losing the previous hand, but when he effectively ships his 25bb stack it's very likely his raising range is EXTREMELY heavy in Axxx hands. Even if you bluff everyone else out your return on investment is significantly hurt by MP being all in.

    2) Stack sizes. In my Macau hand, I needed everyone to fold about 40% of the time for my 5-way bluff to be profitable. Here, since you're priced in to call it off if someone ships, assuming best case scenario with MP where he has no equity (which we already see is a bad assumption), you need everyone to fold about 60% of the time.

    Put these two factors together and you're in a world of hurt- if we assume, very generously to ourselves, that MP has 50% equity vs. us, then you need everyone else to fold over 70% of the time (!!!)

    There are some other minor differences, such as flop texture. People are more likely to have ATxx or TTxx (and they will probably not fold TTxx even if they know you have AAxx because who folds middle set for 1 PSB :P ) than lower two pair/set combos.
  • YoungGrinder Posts: 210Subscriber
    Aesah said

    This is a similar spot to the very first hand I discuss (like 1 minute in) the podcast from Macau here: http://www.seatopenpoker.net/plo-hhs-from-macau/

    That said, there are two key factors that makes bluffing this flop 5-ways much, much worse than the Macau hand I talked about in the podcast:

    1) MP, who raised preflop, is all-in for HALF THE POT. This is by far the more important of the two factors and is extremely, extremely significant. Yes, it could be tilt from losing the previous hand, but when he effectively ships his 25bb stack it's very likely his raising range is EXTREMELY heavy in Axxx hands. Even if you bluff everyone else out your return on investment is significantly hurt by MP being all in.

    2) Stack sizes. In my Macau hand, I needed everyone to fold about 40% of the time for my 5-way bluff to be profitable. Here, since you're priced in to call it off if someone ships, assuming best case scenario with MP where he has no equity (which we already see is a bad assumption), you need everyone to fold about 60% of the time.

    Put these two factors together and you're in a world of hurt- if we assume, very generously to ourselves, that MP has 50% equity vs. us, then you need everyone else to fold over 70% of the time (!!!)

    There are some other minor differences, such as flop texture. People are more likely to have ATxx or TTxx (and they will probably not fold TTxx even if they know you have AAxx because who folds middle set for 1 PSB :P ) than lower two pair/set combos.
    Thanks so much for the comments Aesah.
    I guess I may have gotten a little ahead of myself on this hand.
    I do think you misread the OP though. MP is NOT all-in. I definitely wouldn't have made the bet if he was.
    He had 400+ behind (since he had pulled the stack of greens out before the hand started).

    I thought results were interesting though.
    Folded to the last kid who tanked for 3 minutes and then painfully sigh called with a set of 10s.
  • ScottyScotty Posts: 48Subscriber
    With 5 players to the flop the plan should be to cb when you hit a set or a draw. I also might make a 1/3 pot bet on Ace + pair boards (ex: A77).
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