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flopped bottom set twice.

the first hand: I am button with pocket 4s and its a 6 way limp pot.

flop goes 10 6 4 rainbow. sb leads for 30 bb calls and hj calls. I make it 160. sb calls and bb tanks and ships it for 450 total. hj tank folds. I start to tank.

sb: fish but will call with top pair, open enders, maybe call with pair and runner runner straight sometimes. he would re raise with any set. bb: I have seen him over play big pocket pairs, but I have owned him before because of that. So, I think he avoids me sometimes. He would have raised a lot of pairs pre. I am guessing jj+ and not sure on 10's. So, maybe some of the combos of 10s. I doubt 6's.

So, I am thinking wow a back raise=very strong. Would he do this with 10 6?maybe. But not sure. What do you do? What do you do on turn if you call and sb calls? what cards do you ship and what cards do you check?


I decided to call to get sb to call. I figured he would fold if I shipped it. Turn was a 5 he checks and I ship and he tanks fold 7-5. The other guy has a set of 6s. So, I was drawing to 1 out. I know combination wise more combos of 10-6 then sets of 10s and 6s. but this play is so strong. So, I am curious what people think.


about an hour and half later:

I built my stack back up to 800.

Nit lady in ug makes it 25 pre she has 500 behind pre: she has been playing for about 30 minutes and hasn't raised or has played a few hands, but I haven't seen her do anything. Also, I was watching my friend play 1-2 last night and she didn't raise in the 35 minutes I saw. And same thing didn't really play any hands.

mid player (sb from last hand) calls hj calls (has 190 pre) and I call button with 77 (800)

flop: j 8 7 rainbow. ug leads for 60 mid player calls

i make it 200 to go. ug tanks and calls. mid player says calls and is all in.

main pot: 690 side :20

my range on her pre was 88s+ aq+
I don't give nits a huge range and I rarely give them aj or a 10. I also figure smaller pocket pairs they will limp.

So, I also figured I am a way ahead way behind situation. Either she has a set or an over pair. thoughts on range?
For mid position guy: he would flat pre with 22-10s pre maybe 10s half the time. also he would call with suited/unsuited connectors. also, aj kj qj j10 and maybe j9 (so gap connectors pre. His pre flop range is pretty open. So, on the flop I figured if he had a j he would have raised the 60. especially if he had a draw. I feel he would have raised with a set. so, i was kind of confused what he had, maybe he flopped it, or 10s or 9s. and figured. I will go with it.

So, my plan on the turn was to ship a lot of cards. Turn q and still a rainbow.

She checks and I tank. My thought process on this one: if she has aa or kk i will get the money on the river b/c i doubt she can fold an over pair. I also figured she would check call the river with those hands. If she has a set jj, qq and maybe 88. I am getting my hand in bad. so, way ahead way behind again. So, I figured if I check the turn I get the aa or kk money no mater what. and i doubt she would ship a lot of rivers with one pair.

river: j

she thinks and open ships: I am getting crazy pot odds. My question for people do nits ship here with aa kk? any is there any other hands in the range i beat? Would a nit get it in with a set on the flop?

I have been told by my poker friends: I give players too much credit, i over think hands a lot and sometimes I just need to get the money in. I will admit the other set was a big hand and giving me issues. How many times will this happen.

I hope this makes sense and I am curious what people think.
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Comments

  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Zmonz,

    Hand One: There are 6 combos of 66 or 1010 which we lose to. There are 18 combos of overpairs and two pair (Over pairs conservatively discounted 75%) which we beat. There is absolutely no way we can fold this hand.

    Hand Two: I really think you missed a bet on the turn. There are 12 combos of AA/KK and 9 combos of higher sets (with no discount for the times villain does not slow play a set on a coordinated board.) If villain is getting in AA/KK then we have to get the money in now. Worst thing that can happen by checking is a J/Q/9/10/K/A (A is scare card for KK and vice versa) coming in the river and villain somehow finding a hero fold.

    As played this is gross. She is never doing this with AA/KK. We are beating a lone J bomb tho which I guess is possible since we checked the turn. How often is she opening AJ/KJ/10J utg and calling a substantial check raise on the flop? By your villain description this may be close to zero. I mean, we have to be good here about 25% of the time. If that's the case, I think I am folding the river. Maybe I'll get heat for this one tho. I am definitely open to discussion.

    Best,

    Skinnybrown
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    zmoney11 said

    she thinks and open ships: I am getting crazy pot odds. My question for people do nits ship here with aa kk? any is there any other hands in the range i beat? Would a nit get it in with a set on the flop?
    Sorry to hear about the set coolers. My two cents: the way you played hand #2 turn, your hand is under-repped and you've encouraged action such that I can't see you folding here. I also think trip Js (perhaps AJsuited) fits her line and it's just slightly below your range assessment -- I would imagine that even nits have trouble folding suited b'ways if they haven't played a hand for hours. AA and KKs could do this after you check the turn -- they may be taking you off of made monsters and put you on aggressively played draws on the flop. Nits also tend to play these as Limon puts "through tickets" consistent with the shove. Outside chance it could even be a play to taking down the pot purely based on perceived weakness on the turn.

    Could she have been slowplaying QQ, QJ, JJ, 88 on the turn? It's possible (I do think a nit might not reraise a set on the flop because of the obvious straight out there). But you think QJ and 88 are unlikely UTG PF and there's only 1 combo of JJ left. In any case, she only has ~$275 left and I don't think you can really fold here given the pot odds -- you only need to be right 20-25% of the time. I call and just tap the table -- tough night -- if she has a higher FH.

    EDIT: Arguing against the call, I should have mentioned is the fact that the side pot is dry, so she still needs to have a hand that can beat the PF raiser. But I think thinking about what she thinks of your hand is still valid -- I still think that trip Js and AA/KK through ticket thinking could drive her action enough to merit a call with these pot odds.
  • MattyB Posts: 66Subscriber
    I agree and I don't think you can ever fold the first hand. If the bb has a habit of overplaying TP/overpair type hands, there's no reason why he can't be going nuts here with T6, T4, 64, or even AT/KT type hands here since he's in the BB. If he is the type that overplays big pairs, then I'd expect a PF raise with TT here, so I'd discount that from his range. Narrowing down a BB's range to just 66 here is too narrow for me - I'm happy to get this in.

    I would be interested more in what others have to say about whether to flat the 450 and try to get the sb to tag along, or just jam here and get the sb out.

    For the second hand, I agree with everything Skinnybrown said, but I'd also add that if your plan on the turn was to get it in with her on the river, then what has changed with the river J that is causing you to want to fold? If your description of her is correct - she only played 1 hand in about an hour or so - then I can see her being the type to never fold AA/KK here and go nuts on the river because she's just not thinking about what you have. Agree that you're way ahead/way behind on the turn, and to me that J on the river doesn't change that, ie, I highly discount QJ/T9 type hands from her range. So for those reasons, I lean towards calling.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Skinnybrown said

    Zmonz,

    Hand One: There are 6 combos of 66 or 1010 which we lose to. There are 18 combos of overpairs and two pair (Over pairs conservatively discounted 75%) which we beat. There is absolutely no way we can fold this hand.

    Hand Two: I really think you missed a bet on the turn. There are 12 combos of AA/KK and 9 combos of higher sets (with no discount for the times villain does not slow play a set on a coordinated board.) If villain is getting in AA/KK then we have to get the money in now. Worst thing that can happen by checking is a J/Q/9/10/K/A (A is scare card for KK and vice versa) coming in the river and villain somehow finding a hero fold.

    As played this is gross. She is never doing this with AA/KK. We are beating a lone J bomb tho which I guess is possible since we checked the turn. How often is she opening AJ/KJ/10J utg and calling a substantial check raise on the flop? By your villain description this may be close to zero. I mean, we have to be good here about 25% of the time. If that's the case, I think I am folding the river. Maybe I'll get heat for this one tho. I am definitely open to discussion.

    Best,

    Skinnybrown
    I agree with Skinny here.. in hand one I am calling even though I am not 100% happy about it because of the back raise.. Remember someone else hitting a set is only 1 out of a 100 when I have a set so its very very unlikely.. some players just spaz.. now if you have seen this player do this exact thing with a set before then and only then I might find a fold.. One thing is I think your raises are a bit big.. Try making them just a tiny bit smaller and you might find players will widen their range against you... you went from a 30 bet to 160...thats big regardless of the pot.. dont make a raise so big you only get better to call..

    On hand 2 I think she binked a Q on the turn.. With AA or KK she is probably shipping the flop and you really want to get money in against that range.. I hate your check on the turn.. there is almost no way she has 9T.. remember she is a nit ..nits dont raise big with 9T..

    As played I think you fold.. you will get to see the hand anyways and I just dont think she is shipping anything worse than you.. probably quads or QQs full..

    Wendy
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    shmed said
    zmoney11 said

    she thinks and open ships: I am getting crazy pot odds. My question for people do nits ship here with aa kk? any is there any other hands in the range i beat? Would a nit get it in with a set on the flop?
    Sorry to hear about the set coolers. My two cents: the way you played hand #2 turn, your hand is under-repped and you've encouraged action such that I can't see you folding here. I also think trip Js (perhaps AJsuited) fits her line and it's just slightly below your range assessment -- I would imagine that even nits have trouble folding suited b'ways if they haven't played a hand for hours. AA and KKs could do this after you check the turn -- they may be taking you off of made monsters and put you on aggressively played draws on the flop. Nits also tend to play these as Limon puts "through tickets" consistent with the shove. Outside chance it could even be a play to taking down the pot purely based on perceived weakness on the turn.

    Could she have been slowplaying QQ, QJ, JJ, 88 on the turn? It's possible (I do think a nit might not reraise a set on the flop because of the obvious straight out there). But you think QJ and 88 are unlikely UTG PF and there's only 1 combo of JJ left. In any case, she only has ~$275 left and I don't think you can really fold here given the pot odds -- you only need to be right 20-25% of the time. I call and just tap the table -- tough night -- if she has a higher FH.

    EDIT: Arguing against the call, I should have mentioned is the fact that the side pot is dry, so she still needs to have a hand that can beat the PF raiser. But I think thinking about what she thinks of your hand is still valid -- I still think that trip Js and AA/KK through ticket thinking could drive her action enough to merit a call with these pot odds.
    If she is a true Nit.. Nits dont get their whole stack in unless they have pretty much the nuts.. they also slowplay only heads up (at least the ones I have seen).. Given this I just don't see how she is value owning herself with a worse hand on this river?

    If she isnt bluffing (and I think she never is) what hands can I beat? A straight and AJ.. do nits play these hands from utg for a big raise? No! I see nits limping with these hands utg..Raising utg is generally AA, KK, QQ and maybe JJ.. I see nits even limp with AK all the time..

    Now if she is just a bad tight player that will overplay AA or KK then by all means call .. but that is a big difference from his description of her..



    former Nit Wendy Wink
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Ooops, I didn't realize villain started with $500, I thought she had $800 like us.

    For $275 I am calling the river but I still think I would fold for $500+. What do you guys think?

    Matt - The river card doesn't change the board but her action on the river is additional information which does make a difference. AA/KK are definitely willing to get it in on the turn but are they equally willing to open jam the river on J87QJ given the action? I would be very very surprised if that was the case. I think a large marjority of the time they are checking, sometimes betting small and almost never open jamming. So the difference between turn and river is that all combos of AA/KK are still in her range on the turn when we bet but on the river some to a lot of combos are not. Then again I thought she was shoving $500+ not $275 so I don't think we can entirely remove AA/KK from her range.

    Peace and love always,

    Skinnybrown
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Wendy,

    My only concern is that we are getting 3.5 to 1 on the call so we need to be good 22.22% of the time. QQ and JJ make up 4 combos so we basically need her to have 1 combo of a worse hand to make this neutral EV.

    Also, with the other player in the hand there is a chance he had a J which would eliminate the 1 combo of JJ.

    I do not think this is a snap call and is actually closer than I first believed but I am still calling for this size. I mean if we ever fold wrongly here it is really really bad.

    Make love not war,

    Skinnybrown
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Wendy good points, but would a nit ever think: "I've been playing all night last night and tonight and never picked up AAs. Now I have AAs, but its tough this other guy called all in the flop, he could have a straight. But wait the 3rd PF reraiser just checked the Q turn. LOL at least I got him I'll shove the river."

    Also I think the OP said she had not played a hand in the two sessions (totalling 1 hour) he saw, but didn't say whether she was a bad or good nit -- I don't think I have enough to know. Either way, I could see it being human nature to just get your $275 into a $700 pot to try to pick it up somehow.

    I'm with skinny, it's a pot size thing -- I don't know for sure but at this price I think it's a bigger mistake to fold the best hand here, then to call off when you are wrong.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Skinnybrown said

    Wendy,

    My only concern is that we are getting 3.5 to 1 on the call so we need to be good 22.22% of the time. QQ and JJ make up 4 combos so we basically need her to have 1 combo of a worse hand to make this neutral EV.

    Also, with the other player in the hand there is a chance he had a J which would eliminate the 1 combo of JJ.

    I do not think this is a snap call and is actually closer than I first believed but I am still calling for this size. I mean if we ever fold wrongly here it is really really bad.

    Make love not war,

    Skinnybrown
    Skinny.

    I hear you and I wish it were true... but if she is a real nit she just can't have AJ AA or KK.. she would just not ship the river into a dry side pot.. She wouldnt do this because she would be afraid Hero might have the J...

    If she isnt a true Nit and just a bad tight player then she could have AJ, KK or AA and as you noted above it would be +Ev to call..

    NITs fold for hours and only raise with hand like JJ+ .. Nits don't bluff.. and are generally always worried about monsters under the bed.. That's why I just hate the check on the turn.. If he ships he will probably get AA and KK to call but they will check fold that river a high percentage of the time. Nits also like to make big leads on the river into aggressive with nutty hands..

    Wendy
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    wendy weissman said
    Skinnybrown said

    Wendy,

    My only concern is that we are getting 3.5 to 1 on the call so we need to be good 22.22% of the time. QQ and JJ make up 4 combos so we basically need her to have 1 combo of a worse hand to make this neutral EV.

    Also, with the other player in the hand there is a chance he had a J which would eliminate the 1 combo of JJ.

    I do not think this is a snap call and is actually closer than I first believed but I am still calling for this size. I mean if we ever fold wrongly here it is really really bad.

    Make love not war,

    Skinnybrown
    Skinny.

    I hear you and I wish it were true... but if she is a real nit she just can't have AJ AA or KK.. she would just not ship the river into a dry side pot.. She wouldnt do this because she would be afraid Hero might have the J...

    If she isnt a true Nit and just a bad tight player then she could have AJ, KK or AA and as you noted above it would be +Ev to call..

    NITs fold for hours and only raise with hand like JJ+ .. Nits don't bluff.. and are generally always worried about monsters under the bed.. That's why I just hate the check on the turn.. If he ships he will probably get AA and KK to call but they will check fold that river a high percentage of the time. Nits also like to make big leads on the river into aggressive with nutty hands..

    Wendy
    Maybe it's because I'm a good looking Mexican but I've had big time nits spazz on me and/or show up in spots with hands I never thought possible. There were times I thought I was on the set of Inception II or the Matrix IV.

    In theory, I do agree with you, this is a fold. But when we insert human emotions and retardedness into the equation I just can't lay this hand down at this price.

    Luckily, I have a beautiful asian gf as well so I can use that as back up to combat the sadness spots like these cause when we are beat.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Skinny

    I am so happy for you :-) always nice to have someone you love and who supports you. Now if you ever decide to "pop" the question I am a graduate gemologist and can get you a very nice diamond for a good price because we are friends.. but that is for another topic Laugh

    Wendy
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    wendy weissman said

    Skinny

    I am so happy for you :-) always nice to have someone you love and who supports you. Now if you ever decide to "pop" the question I am a graduate gemologist and can get you a very nice diamond for a good price because we are friends.. but that is for another topic Laugh

    Wendy
    Hahaha, We will talk about this topic in about 3-5 years Wink
  • For the first hand: I am still not 100% what he has most of the time. I figured he wouldn't get crazy with top pair top kicker like that. He might raise the bet, but not back raise. The reason I called was because of 10 6 would be in the same range. I figured 9 combos of 10 6 vs the sets. But I was just wondering what people have seen in the past. Do players raise with 2pair and back raise with a set? I've seen him over play over pairs, but I didn't feel that this was one of those situations. I think it sucks, but I was just wondering if there is any way i fold. I didn't think so, but the back raise is such a strong play.

    To Wendy: the pot was 30 pre. 30 bet and two callers. pot is 120 maybe I can go 100 or 110?


    For the second hand. the first one was heavily on my mind. I wasn't sure if she would have done this with aa or kk. especially into a side pot of almost nothing. Skinny I think you are right on I need one hand to be a spazz and I will take this as a expensive lesson. I folded. I couldn't see her doing this with less then a fb. b/c she has to beat the other guy for the all in as well. I most likely should ship turn, but if not stack off river. I thought i was way ahead way behind. and like i said i figured she would c/c all hands i crush and only bet monsters. but again i do over think.

    So, she ended up having ajdd. So, the one spazz all i needed. and i guess the pot is too big to fold to that. the other guy flopped a straight. So i would scoop the pot. So, thanks for your input and I played the hand bad, and maybe give nits less credit.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Man, I'm really curious as to what she would have done with $500+ behind her on the river...
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    zmoney11 said

    For the first hand: I am still not 100% what he has most of the time. I figured he wouldn't get crazy with top pair top kicker like that. He might raise the bet, but not back raise. The reason I called was because of 10 6 would be in the same range. I figured 9 combos of 10 6 vs the sets. But I was just wondering what people have seen in the past. Do players raise with 2pair and back raise with a set? I've seen him over play over pairs, but I didn't feel that this was one of those situations. I think it sucks, but I was just wondering if there is any way i fold. I didn't think so, but the back raise is such a strong play.

    To Wendy: the pot was 30 pre. 30 bet and two callers. pot is 120 maybe I can go 100 or 110?


    For the second hand. the first one was heavily on my mind. I wasn't sure if she would have done this with aa or kk. especially into a side pot of almost nothing. Skinny I think you are right on I need one hand to be a spazz and I will take this as a expensive lesson. I folded. I couldn't see her doing this with less then a fb. b/c she has to beat the other guy for the all in as well. I most likely should ship turn, but if not stack off river. I thought i was way ahead way behind. and like i said i figured she would c/c all hands i crush and only bet monsters. but again i do over think.

    So, she ended up having ajdd. So, the one spazz all i needed. and i guess the pot is too big to fold to that. the other guy flopped a straight. So i would scoop the pot. So, thanks for your input and I played the hand bad, and maybe give nits less credit.
    So she isnt a nit..

    she is a bad tight player... also shows why the check on the turn is so bad.. on the turn she calls as well with tptk and you scoop the pot..

    Sorry to be so picky about this distinction but I think its really really important.. Tagging players is great but if she really were a nit she would not have AJ.. She is just a regular ole bad tight player and yes a call getting those pot odds are madatory..

    One thing that I have to say is one of the most important things to feel comfortable about is stacking off for an amount at a level you are playing.. Part of the reason why I moved down in stakes was because I didnt feel confident in my sticking my stack in. Z... If at any time you DONT feel comfortable going all in when its appropriate then you are playing too high..

    As an example... The AQ hand I played against Rocco last friday on LATB.. what I am most proud of is the fact that based on my read that he was full of shit I shipped my stack.. My read was wrong and I can fix that but I made a decision based on a process that I was 100% confident in and I made the appropriate reaction which was to stack off.. My read was wrong but my play based on my process was right.. Capish?

    When you are handreading and you put a range that says the villain will pay off .. there is some of the time that you will be wrong but the play is still +EV the majority of the time.. Thats what matters.. not this hand or the next but ALL the hands you will EVER play just like it.. Its so hard but If I thought she was a nit I would have saved the $300.. If she is just a normal bad player who might spaz you have to call.. and tap the table if beat.. You wont win them all but you will win the majority and thats all that matters.


    Wendy
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Z

    About the bet size... going from 30 to 160 is really big.. so with a bet and a call I might raise to 100-115? I have been really trying to work hard on my bet sizing ..not based on what I have but what I think the range of my opponent is.. this way I can always get called by worse and hopefully alot worse..

    This also helps because with a slightly smaller pot now you might feel more comfortable making a value bet on the turn.. And there is nothing like getting a bad player to check raise you all in with the worst hand that you have to call because you are getting crazy odds..nits included..

    Laugh

    Wendy
  • the money and the game is fine to me. I have been doing well at 2/5 for a while. so the decision wasn't if i win the money or not it was: the best +ev spot. But i do understand that and I am glad you brought it up. I will have to check that latb part. I read the post but I still haven't seen it. I understand everything but capish. (bad simspns joke)

    She said she would have folded if i ship the turn b/c all she had was aj. so, i was wrong she isn't a nit just a bad tight player. but i will live another day and be ok. now i know more about her.

    I was just trying to get people's opinion and I am glad I did. This will help my game and it was just a weird night and i was still shell shocked from the first hand. oh well.

    I try to work on bet sizing all the time and obviously i felt the 160 was good, but i like your point. I will get called for like 110ish. one thing bet sizing fun but sometimes difficult thing to do.

    skinny: i am really curious what she would do with more money.


    wendy I like this: You wont win them all but you will win the majority and thats all that matters. and you are right on its not one or two hands but a combination and many.


    Z
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Well now I think she is full of shit.. If she is shipping the river then she is calling the turn..

    btw to make you feel ALOT better.. in 2010-2011 I got into I think over 10 hands where I had undersets to someone elses set. I had 1 or 2 oversets in the same period..6 were in one two month period.. Hands come this way sometimes.. 2010 was a really really bad year for me in poker..

    So far this year I also have had 1 underset ... BUT I binked my 1 outer.. already looking brighter!

    Wendy
  • i think she is full of shit too, but what can you do. under sets suck and i know the odds are bad, but when you have one already that day. it does cross your mind. i wish i could blink 1 outers. what is your secret? glad to hear things are going good and you will be fine.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    zmoney11 said

    i think she is full of shit too, but what can you do. under sets suck and i know the odds are bad, but when you have one already that day. it does cross your mind. i wish i could blink 1 outers. what is your secret? glad to hear things are going good and you will be fine.
    Easy.. the bozo checked his set on the flop.. I bet my quads tho on the turn.. 15 into a pot of about 40.. Laugh
    he called and then check raises me on river.. I ship he insta calls.. EASY GAME..

    EDIT: the river had both the flush and the straight card come in so it was easy bet threebet all in.. I mean what could he have that wouldnt call me?
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