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Raise AA, get donked into for

PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
edited January 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 200-500

Villain ($650) 30's white guy. 2/5 reg, but I haven't played with him much. Capable of making plays - I saw him call twice with QJ on something like KT8cc7x3x board and then he bet very large on the river when checked. He got called, showed the hand and the other guy had 96 for a straight. He does seem to limp a little too much. We started 5 handed and he open limped 42s in MP which seems bad 5 handed, so I dunno.

Hero ($800) Good image so far. Flatted JJ and got a few streets from a field caller on a 9 high board. I also flopped a set in a raised pot, check raised the flop but the guy folded turn for like a half pot bet. I didn't show that one. Haven't been super preflop aggro.

UTG limps
Villain (MP1) limps
Hero Ah As raises to $30
Button calls
Both limpers call

$125
Flop: Jc 6h 5d
Checks to hero, hero bets $75, Button/UTG fold, villain calls

$275
Turn: Jc 6h 5d 6c
Villain donks $125, hero?

I cbet on the smaller side because the board is dry and I'm hoping to get looked up by PP's etc.

The turn lead is weird. It looks like it could be a block bet, but what is he blocking? I don't think he's check/calling with a gutshot like 98 - he's not a station as far as I know. He can't have Jxcc. So the only way he picked up equity is if he had a hand like 87cc or 34cc (which he might not play). It's possible he could have called with 78 and now is blocking turn despite picking up no equity.

It's possible he has trip 6's but I think it's unlikely. Not a ton of combos of 6's. Some frequency he just folds flop and some frequency he bets large OTT or check/raises. If he was full or had A6 it would actually be a really good bet but I try not to give guys too much credit.

The other possibility is he's kinda block betting a Jack which would be an odd play. The guy isn't a station and I imagine he raises AJ first in a decent amount. Possibly KJs and QJs also although you never know. So it's tough for him to have a big jack and he can't have Jxcc.

Thoughts? Are you guys raise/folding this turn? Calling and calling a reasonable turn bet?

If I were to call and river bricks and he checks, what kind of bet sizing are you looking at? I think his range is probably KJ or MAYBE AJ max but I might be able to get like $175-$200 in value in a $525 pot.

Comments

  • Drew5harkDrew5hark Posts: 574Subscriber
    edited January 2014
    call turn and evaluate river if he bombs and get a read but you are ahead a lot here IMO...

    The other option is to min click it as draws almost never come over the top of you and will still call..you may have to make a tough fold on the river if a scary card comes and he leads.
  • GhostDogGhostDog Posts: 328Subscriber
    I think raising the turn here is best. Do you think he donks with 6 here? It's a good play, but I think most players with a 6 would go for a check raise. I think it's likely he's trying to name his price with a draw. He could have some combo draw that he doesn't mind getting in here, but it's likely he has a J or a draw. He may fold his Jx hands to a raise sometimes, but people don't like folding top pair that often and you can still get value from draws. For a reg he seems on the "bad" side with limping a lot, so maybe he's sticky. And if he is why not raise? With the pot at $400 and him having $420 behind you could shove. It's a big bet live, but any raise other than a min raise leaves the stacks weird.

    If you decide to raise be it a min raise or if you make it $300, I think it's a raise call off. I just don't see most players playing there nut hands fast that often. So I feel you're ahead here very often.

    If you just call it gives him a chance to bluff the river as he's shown the propensity to do, but there are a ton of scare cards and you could be put in a tough spot.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    I agree with Ghostdog. I might even make a small raise.. maybe to $275.. I dont think a normal type player would lead out here with a 6.. If they called the flop with a 6 most of them would go for a check raise..

    Given his lead I think he has lots and lots of Jacks in his range or some kind of straight draw.. Again I agree with GD that after I raise him I am not folding to a ship. I doubt he has a full house again most players would go for a check raise in this spot.

    Had I bet $125 and villain raises wo going all in then i would actually be more inclided to fold..

    ww
  • Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    He's closing the action on the flop after the other two players fold. Which means he is definitely MORE LIKELY to take one off with like say 67 than if he was first to act behind you.

    So I don't think you can rule a 6 out. But I do agree he won't donk into you with a 6 very often, though it's certainly possible.

    I feel being this short you definitely have to make your decision now, but I don't think you have to raise necessarily. I tend to think he doesn't have a draw, this kind of player would be more likely to raise on such an innocent looking flop 5-handed. It sounds to me like he may have a Jack and doesn't want to give a free card. If he does have a draw, he may very well bluff the river if you just call.

    I think calling here and calling a blank river is fine, and so is shipping. I don't like making a small raise, just because I think a jack will fold there and a draw will continue on, but not give us any more action if he misses.

    I dunno, I think the only wrong way to play it would be folding, but if he does in fact have a 6, I think he's probably going to stack me in this spot.
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    I think the sizing is somewhat of a tell. It's probably good to lead small with trip 6's, but most guys are going to bet more if they donk just because they have trips and trips is a big hand.

    I actually just called turn.

    River was an offsuit Q. Villain now checks. Pot is $525.

    Bad news is an overcard hit. Good news is QJ is now top 2 and the Q is not as scary as an ace or king.

    What kind of sizing do you like? If he busted a draw he's folding. I thought something like $175 might get looked up by the jack.
  • Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited January 2014
    175 is too small, if anything it just looks like pure value. Yeah he'll probably call, but if he'll call that he'll call $250 as well.

    I probably bet that amount, maybe $225.

    I think you played it well though. I'm seeing him folding the river a ton of the time if he's any kind of player. I'm also calling if he check shoves river for some reason, just because it makes no sense to me. Maybe that's a leak, but I'm not finding my fold button with that given action.
  • Drew5harkDrew5hark Posts: 574Subscriber
    I like a bigger bet as well,....a bit more might make it look like a possible bluff and get looked up by KJ.....I'd go for 1/2 pot or a bit less $225-$250
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    Results if anyone is interested. I called turn, villain checked river and I bet $175 OTR and he folded pretty quickly. I guess it was some kinda draw unless he's that confident a jack is no good.
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