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3b an LP raiser with JJ, turn/river the nuts.

PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
edited January 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$2/5 200-500

Villain ($800) 40's white guy. Should be a rec player. Not terribly aggro preflop - hasn't raised a ton. I imagine he'd 4b KK/AA. Not a huge station or anything. Probably mostly playing off his own hand strength but probably aware enough to know that I could have a hand like AA/KK here.

Hero ($1000) Good image. I stacked a guy for $500 - got check/raised after betting a gutshot straight flush draw and hit the straight flush on the turn. Bleeding off a little money since then. I haven't 3b this session yet.

Folds to villain in CO
Villain raises to $15
SB folds
Hero (BB) JJ raises to $40
Villain calls

Villain thought for a little while before calling. Not sure if he was thinking of raising or folding.

$80
Flop: 8c 7s 3d
Hero bets $45, villain calls

$170
Turn: 8c 7s 3d Jh
Hero bets $80, villain calls

$330
River: 8c 7s 3d Jh 3s
Hero bets $X?

Villain took a while to call flop. Kinda played with calling chips for a while. Didn't seem like he was thinking of raising.

I know the sizing is small. Guys are sometimes sensitive to bet sizing and I'm looking to get called by low pairs, maybe A high pieces off once.

I didn't want to bomb turn because I think his range caps out at 99/TT and possibly even weaker. I think QQ snaps flop if he's not raising, and even a hand like TT probably calls quickly. If I bet too big he might get scared of a big river bet and fold. Me having trips is kinda irrelevant.

OTR I basically have the nuts, but his range is probably not super strong. I don't want to bomb $300 or something but there's no more bets so maybe if he does have 99/TT he calls a medium bet thinking I busted AK or something.

I'm thinking I can either go really small - like $130, or I could go more medium like $200. It's not like I have trip 3's and it might look weird to bet less when you'd think I'd want to protect and then bet more OTR.

What kind of sizing do you like? Do you think my sizing is too small throughout?

Comments

  • bobo1384 Posts: 145Subscriber
    Even with 99/1010 I think villain would call a bigger turn bet. I agree about small bet sizing. The only thing I think villain would call a big bet with is maybe AJ but having a jack is unlikely.
  • Stonewalled Posts: 480Subscriber
    I think your bet sizing is maybe a little small, but within a reasonable range (albeit on the low side of the reasonable range).

    Pre-flop: I would make it a little bigger since you're oop, probably 50.

    Flop: When he thinks for a while and calls, I think it's most likely he was thinking about re-raising, which makes me think QQ/TT/AK are strong possibilities. Sure, he could have been thinking about folding instead. Anyhow, I'd guess his range is mostly QQ/TT/AK, with some 99> pocket pairs plus AQ. So, the flop is obviously really good for you because there are a good number of hands in his range that he'll call with. I think your bet sizing is about right. I might make it 50, but that's nitpicking.

    Turn: Yes, the Jack might cause him to fold TT and lower pocket pairs, but not necessarily, and of course he'll still continue to call with QQ, which I believe is in his range. I'd continue going for something around half pot. Again, I might make it just slightly more, but I'm not criticizing you for betting slightly less.

    River: Right, we're ahead and what will he call? A 3-barrel will look really strong, and you're probably only getting calls from QQ -- I kind of doubt TT and lower pocket pairs are going to call you very much, unless you have a read that this guy is capable of making that call. With that in mind, I think you have to focus on trying to get value from QQ. I think QQ will probably call around a 1/2 size pot bet here, particularly given how small you've kept the pot, so I'd probably bet about $170.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    PIF

    I agree with everyone here that your sizing can be a big bigger..not a lot bigger but those extra $10 here and there add up.. :lol: I see almost no rec players raise to 15 with say QQ-AA.. so at best he has TT or 99s.. given this that his range is pretty narrow to a busted straight draw .. two pair or maybe maybe A3 that he was getting stubborn with.. you just go for thin value on the river but NOW you need to bet smaller..since his range is kinda weak..

    ww
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    Results again real quick if anyone is interested - I probably bet too big on the river.

    I bet $195 and villain folded. He said he woulda called about $125 for what it's worth. Dunno what he had.
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