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KQs, Barrel this turn?

MattyB Posts: 66Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
A lot of good discussion in here, so I'll try to stop lurking around and start posting.

The game is 1/3NL with a $300 cap. I'm in MP with KcQc and have both villains covered with about $600-ish. Effective stacks are $300. An older man limps ahead of me, and I make it $15. The btn calls, the BB calls, and the limper calls. Pot: $61.

The limper is an older gentleman who seems to play straight forward. Bets when he has it, folds when he doesn't - nothing fancy. Probably does not understand basic theory as he's playing a stack of about $150 or so.

The BB is a wild-card maniac. He'll call with any pair, draw, or overcard. I've seen him bet big as both a bluff and with the nuts. I had just stacked him about a half hour prior to this hand, so he's looking to play pots with me. On that hand, I had an overpair, and he check/raised my turn bet huge on a Q875 board with 54 offsuit after I Cbet the flop and turn. He has since bought back in and has a stack of $300.

Pot is $61. Flop: Ks Th 2s
BB checks, the limper donks $15. I raise to $50. Btn folds, and the BB flats the $50. The limper also calls.
Pot: $211. Turn: Ac.
BB checks, limper checks, I check behind.
Pot is still $211. River: 3d.
BB bets $100. Limper folds. Action is to me.

Question 1: Should I be betting the turn or always checking back here? Checking back is clearly the safer play, but I'm losing a ton of value from the maniac by not charging draws and lower paired hands that he'd give me action with. I don't really put the limper on an Ace here because he donked out, but of course Ax spades is obviously in both villain's ranges. Was I correct in checking back, or should I be charging draws here and/or repping AK?

Question 2: Obvious question - should I be calling this river bet? I think the answer is yes - but want to hear what others think.

My big dilemma with this otherwise straight forward hand really is whether or not I should have bet the turn. Obviously, if I bet the turn, I probably don't get put in this spot on the river.

Also - any thoughts on my bet sizing throughout? My flop raise of $50 is probably a little small.

Thanks everyone!

Comments

  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Welcome! My two cents: I'm ok with how you played it because a double barrel might have a tough time getting through given:

    -you are 3 handed vs. 2 players already calling a RR. The limper is nearly put 1/3 of his stack in so seems quite committed.
    -The A hits both those players chasing a FD, OESD, and AT type hands, many of the likely hands that continue PF.
    -You have SD value, so there's less need to barrel in order to end the hand.
    -Sure bet/folding is valid too but I am fine with the check back.

    For the reasons above, I would think about folding the river actually. But I can't think of that many hands you have beat other than a pure bluff here (Tx?, KJ?, K9?) -- I guess the bluff could be from a busted non-A-high FD, but that card being gone makes it a bit less likely. The bet size is also small, but seems a bit valuey. But, I believe though your call is based on your bluffy history/read on him, so I can't argue if that's the biggest driver for the decision.

    I thought the flop raise was fine, a bit more than 3x...
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    I agree with Schmed here but will run this hand through Flopzilla tonight to get a more clear understanding.
  • MattyB Posts: 66Subscriber
    shmed,

    Thanks for the input - I think I'm just second guessing myself too much here based on results and based on this 1 particular villain. I actually tanked pretty long on both the turn and the river, as a bet just felt right to me on the turn given that situation, but technically it was probably correct to check.

    Skinny,

    I ran it through Flopzilla myself and it still makes me a 65% favorite on the turn and 62% on the river, but that's probably because I give this villain a huge range. I started the hand with him at 100% of hands because I literally think he's playing any 2. I suspect that you'll probably come up with different numbers because of the range I'm using, but basically, I put his river bluff range as any 2, any T, any missed spades, and any missed gutter like J9 or Q9.
  • MattyB Posts: 66Subscriber
    Result of the hand:

    I tanked for a long time and ended up folding. I asked him to show if I fold, luckily he was nice enough to show me 72 offsuit. Haha, great laydown, right??? Like I said - he's playing any 2, and his range is super wide for flopzilla or pokerstove purposes.

    I'm probably over-analyzing the hand and maybe being too results oriented, but I'm struggling because I missed a ton of value on the turn and obviously made the incorrect fold on the river. Not sure if that changes the fact that I probably made the correct decisions in a vacuum, just not against this 1 particular opponent.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Matt Bodie said

    Result of the hand:

    I tanked for a long time and ended up folding. I asked him to show if I fold, luckily he was nice enough to show me 72 offsuit. Haha, great laydown, right??? Like I said - he's playing any 2, and his range is super wide for flopzilla or pokerstove purposes.

    I'm probably over-analyzing the hand and maybe being too results oriented, but I'm struggling because I missed a ton of value on the turn and obviously made the incorrect fold on the river. Not sure if that changes the fact that I probably made the correct decisions in a vacuum, just not against this 1 particular opponent.
    Against normal players its an easy fold... that said you say he is a maniac and therefore you have to decide if more than 1 out of 2 or three times hes is bluffing.. If he is then its a call.. but this is NOT normal..

    Also his bet is polarized because most players wont bet Ax spades so thats another thing to consider.. but hes a maniac and normal rules dont apply.

    Wendy
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    Just because he showed a bluff this time doesnt mean you made the wrong decision. I think its a fold. You will get into much better spots than this against the villian. You would have to assume he is going to float the flop over a bet and a raise with complete shit in order to be ahead by the river. I dont think its that often but then again i dont know this villian.

    People generally make the mistake of thinking someone is way too agro when they arent. If you have a really high first in open % it doesnt mean you are gonna stack off really wide. You can open 40% of hands but only 4b KK+. You will be surprised how often someone will 3b/5b a hand like At or 99 and then when they run into the nuts they just think they got unlucky and were coolered.
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    I think that the check back on the turn is fine. You are risking getting blown off the best hand by bet/folding the turn multi-way. Old man will probably never raise even if he makes some sort of weird aces up hand, and you have seen villian make plays with much worse, so betting dosn't get you very much information about either of their hands. That said, you have to be prepared to call off a lot of rivers if the old guy folds to a bet on the river from the maniac. Villian had shown the tendency to bluff MUCH worse, and if you think that he is bluffing more than one out of every four times this is a call (100 to win ~300). When playing with villians like this at low stakes, I am pretty much going with a flopped top pair every single time until proven otherwise. It's a high variance play (even 7-2 off flops two pair every once in a while), but in the long run, it's a +EV play to isolate and bet bet bet.
  • MattyB Posts: 66Subscriber
    Mike said

    People generally make the mistake of thinking someone is way too agro when they arent.
    I'm struggling with this right now. The villain in this hand is probably way more aggro than most, and I'm letting it affect my play against others. With this hand in the back of my mind, I made a very speculative similar call last night against a villain who is also probably playing "any 2", but who is way way less aggro. When he got aggro, I made the mistake of paying him off. So that's good advice and probably something to keep in the back of my mind that people just aren't normally this aggro.

    Thanks for the responses, all. Helped me understand that villains typically aren't this crazy, and 9/10 this is probably a fold.
  • LarryLido Posts: 52Member
    Your raise sizing OTF seems too small. Sure you're offering the flush and straight draws slightly bad pot odds to draw, but you ought to try to force larger mistakes from your Villians. Not small mistakes. Not to mention the small sizing leaves multiple Villains' ranges extremely wide, making hand reading more difficult. The BB's quarter pot donk bet looks like a drawing hands blocker bet.

    I'd raise OTF to about $65. As played, I'm check/folding.
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