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Top & Bottom Pairs vs. Guy Possibly on Tilt

TomBayes Posts: 81Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
This is from the same casino/game as my "Two hands with AKo" thread. 1/2 NL, buy-in from $30-$300. I'm still a 43 yr old white guy, semi-regular, generally thought of as a tight, solid player.

Villain in this hand is sitting on my immediate left. He's about 50, a good ole boy dressed like he's ready to hop on his Harley and go to Sturgis. He's also a "semi-regular", occasionally plays good but is prone to being a calling station and going on tilt. He's probably on tilt right now. He recently lost most of his stack on a bad beat and then spewed the rest on a terrible play. He went to the ATM, reloaded for $200, and for this hand is sitting on about $180. I have him well-covered, at about $500.

As you will see, I think there are several points in this hand where my line is questionable. I'll post the result later.

I'm in the small blind with A5 of spades. Four limpers, I complete my SB to $2, Villain raises to $15, everyone including me call.

Flop ($90): 975 all diamonds. I check, Villain checks, and everyone else checks around.

Turn ($90): A of clubs, making me top & bottom pair. What's my play?


In reality, I checked, Villain bet $50, everyone else folds around to me. What's my play?


In reality, I called.


River ($190): Jack of spades. What's my play?


In reality, I checked again and Villain ships his last $115. What's my play?

Comments

  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    On the turn I'm leading pretty large for value.

    Villains (especially the main villain) are not folding an A especially if it has a diamond. You can also get called by naked diamond draws as well as other hands.

    As played to the turn I am shipping over his bet for value. He has an A here a TON of the time and sometimes with a diamond to boot. No reason to slowplay. The money is getting in now. Imagine just calling, another diamond falls, it goes check check and villain tables AK no diamond or even worse he leads out!

    On the river I am calling as we have to be good 27.5% of the time which we definitely are.

    I could be wrong but I think this hand illustrates that you are playing scared poker.

    This is a very GOOD thing because that is a leak and any time we find leaks in our game and patch them up we get better as a player. I'm by no means saying I'm a great player as I am constantly finding and fixing leaks myself Laugh That is why we are here!

    Why did you check the turn? Is your thought process anything similar to?

    1) Ok, I have two pair.
    2) Flushes, straights, sets and bigger two pairs beat me which is a lot of hands.
    3) I'm going to check, see what happens and then go from there.

    This is a major problem because you are not taking into account the actual ranges of the other players. Instead, I think a better thought process is something like.

    1) What hands can villains have given the flop checked through and an A hit the turn?
    2) Ok, main villain would for sure bet anything strong for value on the flop. There is no way he is stuck and steaming and then all of a sudden deciding to check an overpair, a set, two pair, a flush here.
    3) As for the other villains they all checked AFTER the pre flop raiser. This is much much different than if the villain was still to act after them as recreational players ALWAYS check to the raiser with big hands so after the PFR checks I would suspect them to bet any made hand here for value as well.
    4) With that said what hands can they have on the turn then that were not strong enough to bet the flop? Well, they could have ace highs on the flop that hit top pair on the turn (some could also have a diamond), maybe a pair like 22,33,44,66,88,9x,1010,JJ. Maybe not JJ or higher as they would have raised preflop right but something like that. There are also some straight draws like J10, 66, 810 or 8J some of which could also have a diamond.
    5) My hand is ahead of all these possible holdings but those hands still have equity against me which I will allow them to realize if the turn checks through. That would be a disaster if I didn't charge hands now that would call a bet on the turn but if the turn checks through will only put in money when they hit.
    6) Well how much to bet? Well, I think I can bet pretty large as any hand like Ax or Ax with a diamond or any naked diamond or any combo draw will probably call a big bet here, ESPECIALLY the main villain.

    Does that help at all? The main thing we have to do is make the best possible decision with the information we have at the time. Rinse and repeat. That is it. Forget about the money as best as you can. All that matters is decisions, decisions, decisions.

    Hope this helps!

    Skinnybrown
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,146Subscriber
    If I check the turn, it is solely to go for a check/raise because I believe strongly that the PFR is going to bet the turn. I do not want another diamond to come and either kill my action, or, worse, lose me the pot to someone with a big diamond who not fold.

    If I have no reason to believe that the PFR will bet the turn after checking the flop, then I am leading the turn, like $60-$75, hoping to get called by a big diamond or a big A.
  • Mike Posts: 371Member
    how he spewed his chips really matters in this case IMO. If he spewed them by bluffing in a bad spot then id lean to play it the way you did. Let the tilt monkey give you his chips.

    If he spewed by calling down with some trash hand then id lean towards betting turn and river big for value.

    A case can be made from both sides.

    Also, how certain are you that he veiwed you as a 43yo? He could think you are 35 or 55 depending on how crazy you were in your younger days.
  • TomBayes Posts: 81Subscriber
    Skinnybrown said

    On the turn I'm leading pretty large for value.

    Villains (especially the main villain) are not folding an A especially if it has a diamond. You can also get called by naked diamond draws as well as other hands.

    As played to the turn I am shipping over his bet for value. He has an A here a TON of the time and sometimes with a diamond to boot. No reason to slowplay. The money is getting in now. Imagine just calling, another diamond falls, it goes check check and villain tables AK no diamond or even worse he leads out!

    On the river I am calling as we have to be good 27.5% of the time which we definitely are.

    I could be wrong but I think this hand illustrates that you are playing scared poker.

    This is a very GOOD thing because that is a leak and any time we find leaks in our game and patch them up we get better as a player.
    I'm trying to avoid playing hands and taking lines like I did here. I was weak-tight when I began and I lapse back into that style when I'm not vigilant. I think most of us have a non-optimal "natural" style of play (for some, it's being a station or a maniac) that we revert back to when tired or on tilt or just not on top of things.

    On the drive home, I felt I should have led the turn and have been prepared to play for stacks against the main villain. There was another player in the field that's a notorious slow-player of monsters that I might have had to re-evaluate and maybe bet-fold to if he had shown any interest.

    As played, villain shoved on me on the river, I tanked and called. He seemed uncomfortable and when I finally called, he said "You win". When I showed my two pair, he was very surprised and double-checked his hand before he finally folded. I'm pretty sure he had an Ace and quite possibly the Ad, and was hoping that he had a 2nd pair.
  • TomBayes Posts: 81Subscriber
    Mike said

    how he spewed his chips really matters in this case IMO. If he spewed them by bluffing in a bad spot then id lean to play it the way you did. Let the tilt monkey give you his chips.

    If he spewed by calling down with some trash hand then id lean towards betting turn and river big for value.

    A case can be made from both sides.

    Also, how certain are you that he veiwed you as a 43yo? He could think you are 35 or 55 depending on how crazy you were in your younger days.
    I look more or less my age. Villain's not terribly observant about your image or style of play.

    After his bad beat, he called down on a hand and lost the rest of his original stack when he apparently misread his hand-he thought he had aces up when he just had like 3rd pair and didn't have an ace.
  • StopHammertimeStopHammertime Posts: 81Member
    This is a pretty awful flop if you're going to call raises from the blinds and play this hand. Monotone flops that I don't hit are always very tough for me to play; they are the biggest way ahead/way behind spots.

    Several people saw this flop, and it checks through. The turn comes and this guy leads. This is consistent with both an aggro person on tilt who has seen weakness on a scary board, and also is consistent with someone who flopped a flush and wanted someone to do his betting for him, but has now taken it into his own hands.

    Bart always goes over the "if you're calling the turn, you don't have to call the river" business. But I think that this is a different situation. IIRC, Bart often brings that up in situations where the villain has gone check/call flop, lead turn, or check-raised the turn. I think he also brings that up when we have position on the villain, and that's not the case here.

    We've given him three streets of checks and a scary board to bluff at. It's a green light the whole way for him. It also seems like he's tilting, and that he's got this sort of aggro personality. There are a lot of bluffs here. (If he rivered a higher 2P than you, I think he thinks he's betting it as a bluff.)

    Why'd you call the turn? You're going to have to act first on the river. You didn't fill up and he's betting the river when you check to him 100% of the time; this is something that should have been anticipated when making the turn call out of position. So, I don't want to say "if you call the turn, you have to call the river"... but the way the hand played out given your turn call was virtually set in stone. Bart counters that cliche I've referenced by saying that betting on the river is new information, and we should treat it as such. And he's right about that, but I'm not so sure about the applicability here, because I don't think we're getting any new information. It's not new information, because it was practically set in stone that it would happen. I realize I'm trying to tread a thin line here, so let me rephrase: I don't necessarily think you have to call the river, but I DO think you should have seen his river shove coming a mile away. And if you weren't willing to call a river-shove with aces-up when you don't fill up, you shouldn't have called the turn, either.

    Now, all that said... with all the people that saw the flop, it seems likely that someone caught a flush, right? That's the main thing telling me to fold. I'm pretty conflicted about it.

    I like the idea of leading into the turn. Your check on the flop (first to act in a large field, to the preflop raiser) would be consistent with someone with a flush. Your hand strength is very disguised with a turn lead and it will be very hard for someone to call a guy who played out of the blinds and leads into several people on a board like this on the turn after having seemingly missed a flop bet. Yet, you could also be called by worse (pair + NFD) with that bet. It's an easy bet/fold on the turn, I believe.
  • StopHammertimeStopHammertime Posts: 81Member
    Tom Bayes said
    He seemed uncomfortable and when I finally called, he said "You win". When I showed my two pair, he was very surprised and double-checked his hand before he finally folded. I'm pretty sure he had an Ace and quite possibly the Ad, and was hoping that he had a 2nd pair.
    To me, this is a big, neon sign saying that this is a guy you can bet thinly against. BTW, my reply was before I read your response saying how the hand played out, honest :-)
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