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Genius Merge or total spew?

Collecting_Tax Posts: 177Subscriber
edited January 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5nl

$600 effective

Villain is very fishy. Calls wide pre. Not thinking past his own hand strength.

Hero has a good winning image and covers.

The K is exposed pre by dealer

Villain opens to $15 in MP (this was his standard open even with strong hands)
Hero 3bets to $50 in the CO with J J
Folds around and Villain calls

($100) T 8 6

Villain leads $75
Hero calls

($250) 9

Villain leads $130
Hero calls

($510) K

Villain checks
Hero bets $200

So what do you think? Can I get QQ to fold here as well as get looked up by A Tx? I honestly don't think he ever has AA and since a K was exposed pre KK is very unlikely. Obv my line doesn't make too much sense but I know he is not thinking about any of that.

Comments

  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    if this player's a real fish, i doubt they're gonna be able to fold QQ. and i think the bet-turn, check-river line is more likely sets and two pair than semi-bluffs, and he's very likely to call off with those hands. semi-bluffs are possible, but doubtful enough of his range. plus, i don't even think he's calling with like Ac8x or Ac6x, or even, much of the time, AcTx. i think a check-back is in order.
  • Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited January 2014
    Hm I dunno, his line looks like a naked ten or a missed flush draw like 100% of the time.

    I don't feel like he's donking into you with QQ after you 3-bet him preflop, even if he has the Q of clubs. Bad players who donk bet the flop are almost always doing it with some kind of one pair hand or a draw. I think the only time we're beat is if he has AK with a club and decided to check the river since he now has show down value.

    I think betting the river small is fine. Given the action, that river is honestly a blank 99% of the time.

    Vs. this kind of a player, you don't have to think about his perception of your range at all. Only your perception of his range. Do you think you have the best hand here a ton of the time? I think so. In which case I think a bet is in order, even if I think he's folding a ton, which I think he is.

  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    turn is a pretty solid bet -- i think a ten bets a little smaller on the turn? the bet-bet line with that sized turn bet made me think his range was skewed a little stronger than just a pair if he's your average pretty bad player.
  • Collecting_Tax Posts: 177Subscriber
    See I don't think the avg rec player is taking this line with 2 pair+ because they don't want to get raised. That being said, I do think they will lead with tptk or an over pair thinking that they are "protecting".
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    rec players will check raise with a hand they want to protect.. that or lead out over pot. He did neither. I think he has a lot of Tens in his range since we dont have a ten. I might have raised on the flop.. not big..but say a little over min..

    I agree with Sean .. I think he has a ten or a flush draw here most of the time. Is it possible he has an overpair.
  • Stonewalled Posts: 480Subscriber
    edited January 2014
    Genius merge. I think you're ahead super often here. But, the real question is when you're ahead, will he call a bet often enough to make a bet profitable? I think the King actually hurt you because it makes it more difficult for this player to call a river bet. Nevertheless, I think you can get called enough by a worse hand if you make it really small, like 20-25% of the pot. So, I think your bet is actually a little too big -- I'd make it super small, like $125.

    I suppose an argument could be made for making it bigger like you did, so that you can attempt to fold out QQ (kind of a combo bet), but I don't think that's realistic most of the time here because I think QQ is usually calling anyhow. I'd focus on trying to get value from Tx.
  • JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
    I think this might fall more on spew.

    You called his Donk flop and turn. He is worried that you have a Flush. Him hitting the King is a real possibility with the AK (one of them clubs). Also the QQ. You beat the pairs with 9c hands.

    When he checks the river, he either gave up on his semi-bluff or has value. So you are ahead of the semi-bluffs but not most of the value. The K was a terrible card. I think this Merge doesn't get you what you want. I would check, as he sounds like the Hero call type, or bet bigger. $350-450 bet.

    I think before this river you were ahead of most of his range. With the K hitting, you are now behind a lot of his range. You have a lot of showdown value. If your gut told you he had QQ there, then blast the pot. If you think it could be the Kc then I would give up.

    Bad river card.




  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    edited January 2014
    I'm of the opinion that merging (in the sense you're using it as getting better hands to fold and worse hands to call) on the river basically doesn't exist in NLHE. I would be EXTREMELY surprised if from villain's perspective, you could input *any* range for hero where he should call with AT but fold QQ.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    Don

    I merge many bets on flop or turn ..but rarely on the river.. no more draws on river so the draws just fold.. I did this over the weekend where one of two villains called my turn bet as an all in and other player folded likely better pair.. I won with pair of 6s as main villain had oesd..

    that said no one is folding a Q on this river unless the bet is all in for 300 bbs or more cuz he has a straight

    ww..
  • Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited January 2014
    he needs to have QJ to have a straight. We have JJ and block a ton of straights on this board.

    The one-liner is to a 7, far less likely in his range, and why is he checking a straight anyway after leading for two streets?

    He's not, but maybe he's checking 2 pair. Kinda doubt that also, but he could.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,390Subscriber
    I think you're good here most of the time. If the villain has over cards he bets stronger on turn I feel. You describe him as a fish. Fish usually don't turn their hands into bluff, and he checks the river here on the end. I think he'll show up with like AcTx, KcTx, QcTx in this spot. I think your $200 bet on the end is okay, but I might bet a little smaller like 100-125. He will never bluff raise you. Your other roption would be to blast the river for pot to fold out a K, 2-pair hands. I would opt for the small bet looking to get called by Tx.
  • Collecting_Tax Posts: 177Subscriber
    Thanks for all the comments guys. Villain tanked for a bit and folded.
  • TJ Posts: 239Subscriber
    I have no comments on the hand. But the title of this post is LEGENDARY.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    If he calls wide PF, why your 3bet is so small? Can you explain why did you call flop and turn?
  • Collecting_Tax Posts: 177Subscriber
    TDF, I mean I made it over a pot sized raise. I am not sure how much bigger I could go. Maybe $60?
    I called flop and turn because I just did not think this was the type of player to fast play a monster so there was a decent chance I was still ahead. Also, with position I thought that I could easily be presented with a situation on turn or river to take the pot away when a scary card fell.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    John

    The reason why I think and I think many other posters say the min raise on the flop is such a good play is for these reasons:

    1) Most players even the nitty ones just cant resist calling because of a perceived implied odds situation if they hit. But they dont know that by calling Hero is defining villains range and wont pay off if Villain hits..

    2) When villain is not on a draw but on a weaker made hand you get more money in the pot wo scaring them away from calling. This has an additive effect whereas because the called the min raise on the flop now they are much more likely to call a bet on turn and river.. why? because now the pot looks big enough for them to fight for it.

    So on the turn I would have done my best to get all the money in given my read on his range is either top pair or a flush draw..if you think his range doesnt have a seven in it. I think a 7 is less likely then a 9 with a club.. so 9T Ac9c QT, JT KQ AT etc...

    thats where hand reading can really add to your win rate. would villain call with a sucker gutshot? probably not.. so you can now value bet your overpair and get called by the draws and maybe even tp since villain sees NO ONE else bet this..ie he thinks you are bluffing and will hero call.

    I think betting the river is a little too thin. I am hard pressed to think of a hand that is worse that will call you. And if only better calls and worse folds 50% of the time or more then the bet is too thin.. I think this may be this type of situation..

    ww
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    Villain is very fishy. Calls wide pre.
    What does that mean in context to this hand? How wide is his opening range? Does he open 87s or l/c? I think this completely changes the dynamics of this hand. If he is open/calling suited cards, then he has a lot more 2 pairs and straights. If he is only open/calling with broadways and pairs, then he will have a lot of offsuit cards that are likely to have high flush draws.

    The exposed king is not as important as it may seem too. Firstly, the fishy player could have either not noticed it, or did notice it and not care when he has AK, KQ, KJ.

    However, regardless of whether he open/calls broadways+big pairs or if he opens suited connectors too, on this river, I would just check back and hope to be good. If he opens tighter, then we win the pot a decent amount when he has bricked with the lone A or Q of clubs. If he opens wider pre, then we are good less often, as he could be planning a pot control c/c with Kx or 2 pair. If he is opening wider with suited connectors, we should be folding the turn though. We don't really beat many hands other than his few lone clubs that are bluffing, but his range is much more weighted towards made hands. And if he is bluffing, he'll often have 12 outs, if not more.
    Villain is very fishy. Calls wide pre. Not thinking past his own hand strength..........Can I get QQ to fold here as well as get looked up by A:c:Tx?
    "

    This doesn't seem very consistent. If he is not looking past his own hand strength, why would he fold a stronger hand but call a weaker one?

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