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ATo top pair in capped game vs a likely draw...questions on turn and river

Drew5harkDrew5hark Posts: 574Subscriber
edited January 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
posted in wrong forum...administrator please move to Strategy Forum..

reads- Hero is probably viewed as tight and aggressive, makes some thin value bets
Villain is splashing around, rarely folds to standard raises both in and out of position...likes suited junk hands; seen some 2 and 3 gappers. Villain would not overlimp with a big A and likely would raise any pair in CO.

Stacks; Villain ~$420
Hero covers

3/5 spread
EP limps, villain limps on CO, hero raises to $25 with AhTc, EP calls villan calls.
FLOP ($80) Ad9d6h, EP checks, villain leads for $25, hero raises to $90 calls, EP folds,villain calls
TURN ($260) 8c, villain checks, Hero bets $140??, villain thinks about 10 seconds and calls.
RIVER ($540) 4s, villain checks,..Hero?

My plan was to bet the turn and get value from his draws and then just fold if he woke up and seemed to hit something on the river like a diamond, T, 7,5 etc..Does anyone ever jam the turn if they know villain never has a big ace here and didn't raise back on the flop or lead turn?..What about the river? Villain has $158 left, is this too thin?

Comments

  • Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    Too thin, I think he's folding 99% of the time, except if he has some insanely weirdly played 2 pair hand. The only thing you want value from is a smaller ace.

    The thing is, I don't think he ever has an ace that leads into you as the preflop raiser. Like you said, it's almost always a draw. I don't think there is much wrong with betting, but I'm just seeing him fold the river all the time unless you're beat with a weird 2 pair. If he had check-called you on the flop, then I might go for super thin value vs a smaller ace on the river. But his line is like hearts nearly all the time with the lead into you for $25, call, check-call.

    If you bet this river, you have to go for the retard bet and hope to induce him to bluff raise. I'm probably checking, just because of how often I see fish sheepishly turn over like a 84h type hand that they're too ashamed to bet or something. But you could bet $10 and hope he goes insane with anger.
  • marseille Posts: 400Subscriber
    Hi Drew-

    I was in a hand like this recently with similar villain, action and stack sizes. Since villain has just over one psb left on turn and pretty wide drawing range- I can see diamonds, diamonds with pair, diamonds with gutterball, pair and gutterball- I would rather get it all in since I know I would have a hard time folding river if flush or straightening card comes in getting almost 5:1. As played, I can't see him checking better but he might call with worse-single A that picked up equity on turn is possibility, though the flop bet looks more like draw.
  • Drew5harkDrew5hark Posts: 574Subscriber
    edited January 2014
    Well, it was 84h and he hit runner runner 2 pair. I wasnt being results oriented and I wanted value from his draw on the turn but thought all in was too strong and only better would call like a turned 2 pair. He checked and I pushed 158 and he called probably hopng he was good and I didn't have a set or two pair myself. In retrospect I think my sizing is fine if I dont think he will bluff any missed draw and I should just take a showdown and bet any Ace or ten that isnt a diamond and I expect him to fold a lot on the river
  • Reece Posts: 90Subscriber
    Pot was $260 on the turn and he had about $300 left. You may value own yourself at times, but I would get it all in on the turn. If he doesn't hit his 2 pair on the river or his draw you don't get his last $158.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Don't post results so quickly!
    As I read the OP , I was thinking to bet like $55 on the river to get him to call with what I read to be a pair of 8s. A lot of his draws on the flop turned a pair of 8s, which mostly didn't improve.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    very, very close. but when it's very, very close i usually fall on the side of betting in spots like this. 2 pair on flop re-raises most likely. so 2 pair would be super fluky. and wouldn't a turned 2 pair bet out on turn or C/R? maybe not, but the fact that that didn't happen makes it that much less likely. and a rivered two pair might bet out as well. didn't happen, but him not betting out diminishes the 2 pair possibilities somewhat... smaller aces i think make up a significant enough portion of his range to bet. i'd bet maybe 80 or 90, not putting him all in. so small that 9's almost feel obligated to call.
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    I don't think he's calling turn with random nines - our line is pretty strong. He might call with some bizarre draw, but I don't think he's calling mid pair trying to hit.

    So given that, and given that we don't beat a ton of aces OTR I'd probably check back. 

    One thing to think about is sizing our flop raise to get stacks in OTT. If the guy has a draw, he's probably never folding a flop raise. So if we can eyeball his stack and realize he has $375 we can raise to maybe $110 and then if he calls pot is $300 and villain has like $280 left.

    It's not a super big deal. If the guy is a splashy fish then I kinda like a turn shove a decent % of the time. The guy might even call you with an ace thinking you're drawing. It's not like he knows the pot, so if you shove $300 and he has a big draw he might just go with it.

    That being said if I did bet smaller OTT I probably check river.
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