2/5 and effective stacks are about $700 deep.
Villain is a recreational player, 50's foreign (?) player. The day before, he said his main game was roulette and he asked about some of the rules of the game. He looked at me and asked if he was the big blind with an innocent look and then asked if it was 2 or 5. He was asking players around him about his play because he was trying to get better. He seems to know basic hand strengths (like a flush beats a straight), but doesn't seem to have understands concepts on hand reading. If I had to guess on his pf stats, it was probably something like 70/25. He was raising a decent amount and it was normally for 3x. I haven't seen him 3 bet or limp reraise. He had ran pretty good the previous day and eventually busted his stack. This day, he had again been running very well and ran his stack up to $2K or so. Some hands of note that were going through my head:
-Straddled pot, one limp, someone makes it $45, he calls the BB with K8o. c/c K72dd. X/X on Qo turn, He leads 6d river. I can't remember other full hand histories, but there were other times where he showed up with strange holdings like this.
-On several hands, he chased a draw (either flush draw or straight draws) and then showed his hand on the river to his opponent that was betting and said "Aww you're so lucky. I almost got you again buddy!" and mucks his hand.
-On one hand, he called down an overpair on T77ss board and thought said "whew, I was sure you had a seven" despite the fact that the pfr 3 barrelled after raising UTG and the other caller never raised and looked a bit defensive when c/c down. This is what I meant by not really hand reading well.
Now for my hand:
Villain raises $15 UTG+1 and 3 calls. Hero calls SB with QJo (no hearts). BB folds.
Flop AKThhh ($80)
Hero leads $50. Villain calls. All others fold.
Turn 8s ($180)
H bets $125. V calls
River 9c ($430)
H bets $240. V jams for another $210 after thinking for 5 seconds.
So my thoughts on the hand. Pre, I called because of how loose the pfr was and some of the callers. Another rec player had called that was playing 70% of hands and calling down with pretty much all draws and folding flopped top pair to 2 and 3 barrels. So please no preflop nits. This was a very clear call against the player types.
I don't know how often V is cbetting and don't know how likely it is for other players to take the betting lead on this scary board, so I donk bet. I also feel like c/r is pretty gross against the field since they are somewhat likely to have a flush and leading can define their ranges better than c/r & guess vs a jam or call. Turn is an easy 2 barrel as V is likely to have a ton of hands from 2 pairs to a bare Qh.
OTR, this is a fold against 99% of players because they just never jam a hand that isn't a flush (or they would have raised earlier). The predicament I'm in though is that this guy is new to the game and probably doesn't understand hand strength very well. I'm getting about 4:1 and lose only to a flopped flush. I do not know how many combos of flopped flushes are in his pfr range in the first place. Like I said, he raised with some frequency (which is why I guessed 70/25), but I'm not sure if this includes 65s or J4s. I almost would expect someone like this to l/c those hands but IDK. I also think that with him being so inexperienced, that he could have c/c down and hit 2 pair or a straight or a set and then jam the river. For instance, I could see him having AA/KK/AK, know that those are the best hands preflop, slowplay them OTF/OTT because he doesn't know any better, and then snap jam them OTR. Fwiw, I would normally also put some bluffs in someones range, but I have not seen him bluff the river yet when he missed, in playing with him for 2 days. So I'd put that at a really low %.
And also, any thoughts on alternative lines? c/r turn, c/c river, adjust bet sizing to jam river?
Normally, where I'm from (Midwest casino), everyone has some poker experience, through home games with their buddies, splashing around in the tourney before playing cash, or something. We don't get many players at our casino just coming over from the house games and splashing around. So if any Vegas regs have any other types of comments on this type of player, feel free to rant about it, even if it doesn't apply directly to this hand.