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5/10NL: 2-pair plus flush draw on turn, facing heat

Stonewalled Posts: 480Subscriber
edited January 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Stacks a little more than $2,700. Villain is older and very experienced reg. Very tight. However, I have seen him make big bluffs. His 3-betting range is very tight. He's typically going to check back a large range on the river, so I think he's very polarized if we make it to the river here and he bets. He probably views me as TAG ish.

Hero has 9s8s in cutoff.

Preflop: Weak mp limps, Hero raises to $40, Villain calls on button, bb calls, mp calls.

Flop (4 players) (Pot is $160): Qs9x7s
Checks, Hero bet $115, Villain raises to $375, folds, Hero calls.

Turn (2 players (Pot is $910)): 8x
Hero checks, Villain bets $800, Hero ?

Importantly, If you call the turn, what is your plan on the river? Pot would be $2500 and remaining stacks would be $1500.

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    I assume this is 5/10? I am def betting this flop and of course calling when villain raises. When villain flat calls preflop I dont put him on QQs 9s are tough since we have one 77s is possible ..so is JTss KQ AQ those are probably only hands he might raise on the flop with

    So when you look at this flop what two pair can villain have? if he is reasonable like you said I doubt he has Q9 or Q7 ..even 97 is a bit of a stretch.. So that leaves a single paired Q, a combo flush draw or a set.. I would have lead that turn.. you are still deep enough to call if you are raised again and now you would know that villain has a set or hit a straight.. I wouldnt want this to get checked through if he has QJ or a naked flush draw like AXss

    given you checked I wouldnt want to raise now because he bet so big.. So he is polarized now I think to a set , turned straight or air.. If you raise you get his air to fold and only will get called by better.. So I think you just call and hope your draw comes in.

    Given my read on his range as most likely a straight or pockets 7s.. I think that if a 9,8, or spade comes in I doubt he will fold.. So I think you can bet bigger on the river too. If you hit I would just go all in for your last $1500.. I just dont see many players folding this..

    ww
  • DavidTuchman Posts: 784Pro
    edited January 2014
    This is an interesting spot...

    I think eliminating QQ from his range would be a mistake as I know many tight regs that flat with QQ especially when a TAG was the original raiser.

    If he was raising with a made hand, turning two pair shouldn't really change much unless you think he has 9/7 in his range. Once he bets $800 on the turn, I think 9/7 is prob not. So, with that said, the made hands are essentially, QQ, 99, 77 or Q9 ... his draws are probably skewed toward combo draws. You having the 98s eliminates a bunch of hands that he might try and semi-bluff with. KTs, KJs, 65s or JTs. JT and 65 got there on the turn...And this is a question only you can answer, is this the type of player who would bluff with KJs and then fire again even after he's called and misses? Would he bluff with ATs and continue firing on the turn?

    You really aren't beating much on the turn tbh and also don't really know where you're at in the hand.

    I'm thinking this hand out while I'm typing. You're essentially beating Ax(spades), KJs and KTs

    $800 to win $1710 huh? 4 outs to make a full house which may or may not be good depending on what he has. 9 outs to make a flush which also may or may not be good depending on what he has.

    More I think about the hand, the more I think it's a fold on the turn. Now, that all changes if the villain bluffs more frequently or semi-bluffs often.

    If you decide to call the turn, the fact that he's very polarized doesn't really help you all that much because we know that at this point, he's either got a monster or a big draw. I'm assuming unless a scary card comes off, he'd bet all his monsters.

    If you're calling just to hit your flush or your full house, I think it's a mistake. You'll only improve approx 26% of the time and as I mentioned earlier, you're not even sure what you want. The pot is not laying you enough odds to make this call.

    If you're calling the turn, it's because you think two pair might be good and that if you don't improve, you might get to showdown without having to face a $1500 bet on the river.

    I might be too nitty in this circumstance and maybe if I'm there, I get a different read. The more I think about it, the $800 bet on the turn is large. Maybe the villain is trying to get me to fold. If that's the case and you think he would play Ax(spades)...

    nah, I'm dumping it.

    Sorry about the stream of consciousness post - I think better this way.

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    David

    I love the stream of consciousness. Helps me immensely.. I would actually discount the QQ but after your post I should reconsider this if the situation happens..

    ww
  • BartBart Posts: 5,723AdministratorLeadPro
    edited January 2014
    If he has combos of 77, JT suited and Q9 in his range I think that our hand is way to big to fold on the turn. We almost have the correct equity to call anyway at getting just over 2-1 if we have 13 outs. We probably need something like 30% and of course there is the money that we can win at the end if we make or flush or fullhouse. There are of course reverse implied as well but I think people fold too much in these spots. Seems like his range is very skewed towards 77 given the villain's tendencies preflop and card removal and if we brick out and he fires huge on the river it just comes down to whether you think that this older guy has it in him to empty the clip with a three street, combo draw bluff. In reality the only thing that would really suck is if he specifically has Js Ts.

    Bart
  • Stonewalled Posts: 480Subscriber
    Thank you for all the thoughtful analysis.

    Yes, QQ is possible, but I thought this villain was more likely to 3-bet big to "protect" his QQ from a lp raiser. I also didn't think he would raise AQ/KQ on the flop. I should also mention that this particular villain is unlikely to call with Q9 pre-flop. With all that said, I thought his range on the flop consisted mostly of 77/JT/draws. I decided to call, thinking that I could be ahead, and if behind then many of my outs were probably clean.

    The river was Qx. I checked, Villain shoved for $1,500, Hero ???
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    Now this is just a math question. You said villain was capable of big bluffs.. Do you think he is bluffing in this spot more than 1out of three times? Pot is 2500 1500 to call.. If you think he is bluffing here then you might need to call.

    This is a spot where Bart would be looking to see HOW he bet on the turn? Did he tank a moment before he bet the $800 ? Did he insta bet.. did he look strong? Did he look worried.. etc... then make a decision and go with it.

    ww
  • PuraVida96 Posts: 33Member
    edited January 2014
    I probably just sigh fold the turn for a couple of reasons.
    - villain is an old very tight reg
    - our reads aren't great. 'capable of big bluffs' could mean anything and 'probably views me as TAG' is not much of a read at all. Is he capable of unloading the clip for 250bb+ out of the blue over multiple streets? Or does he generally prefer to bluff at a pot when shown weakness? Is he more likely to attack a wet or dry board?

    I'm curious about the hand(s) where he made a big bluff that gave you this read. And if this was a spot he might attack, would he necessarily do it against you?

    I have a hard time believing a villain who doesn't flat Q9s on the button 250bb+ deep is going to be bluffing of his stack. Especially with his bet sizing which suggests he's trying to price out draws.

    The one thing we do have going for us is that if he does have a set all of our outs are good. But even then, the Js, Ts, and 6s put on one-liners on the board where we might not get paid off by QQ/77/Q9 so our implied odds aren't great. Taking everything into account I don't think we're getting good enough odds to call the turn. It might be close to neutral EV or slightly +EV and in that case I'm ok with folding.


  • PuraVida96 Posts: 33Member
    And if we think he's got enough flush draws (AK/AJ/AT/KJ/KT/A6/A5) in his range we probably have enough equity to get it in on the turn.
  • DavidTuchman Posts: 784Pro
    I generally defer to Bart in these cases, but he and I have debated many poker hands over the years and this is going to be another one where our opinion differs.

    You have the 8 of spades...That alone eliminates a ton of the combo draws that he might be bluffing with. JT got there...

    What are we beating? The only two hands I can think of are KTs and KJs ... Based on what you're telling us, it seems very unlikely he's making this play with Ax (spades)

    Yes, we have 13 outs if and only if our opponent has 77. But to make the call profitable, we have to make money on the river. You're out of position which could hinder our ability to make money after we hit our hand (especially if we hit the flush) ...

    On top of the fact, there's a huge amount of reverse implied odds. To me, this isn't a simple case of, "I have 13 outs, I'm getting 2 to 1 + implied odds" ...

    It's more like, I might have 13 outs, but then again, I might have 9 outs or I suppose I could be good now and he actually has 13 outs. Oh fuck, where was I?!?

    now, if we didn't have the 8 of spades and my opponent had more combo draws in his range, this would be a different conversation, but to me, this is a case of, if it smells like a duck and walks like a duck, it's probably a duck.

    As for the river bet, unless you have some really good read on your opponent, I think you're probably way way behind.

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