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2/5 range check

TJ Posts: 239Subscriber
edited January 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 500 effective

Villain just sat down, no info. Hero (UTG+1) raise with ATcc to $15 (passive table). Villain, next to act, calls. Everyone else folds.

Flop (35) As Th 8h Hero bets 25, villain insta ships 485. Hero? (Pot 545, 460 for hero to call, need ~45% equity. At the table, I decided there were enough combo draws and aces in his range that I was generally ahead. Getting odds and being ahead of his range, I obviously called.

Specific range I stoved later: 88, TT (1/3, because I think he mostly 3 bets it), Axhh, KQhh, KJhh, QJhh, J9hh, J8hh, 79hh, AK (1/2 of them), AQ (1/2), AJ (4 combos) showed something like me @ 65%, so obviously it was a clear call against this range.

My question is, what do you think of my range analysis against a typical, low-limit unknown?

Comments

  • NicholasK Posts: 237Member
    sick spot. I don't think you'd see this play from a decent Pro very often so I'll assume the V's incompetent. How old and what ethnicity was the V? How tidy was he, what was his bearing? Against A 20 something white kid who sit's down but has no clue I'm probably insta-calling. Against a 55 year old crusty who looks like he's in love with Hellmuth I probably fold.
  • TJ Posts: 239Subscriber
    White guy in his early 30s. Dressed neatly, but not extravagantly, handled cards and chips like he'd done it before. No backpack/earbuds. Married.
  • TJ Posts: 239Subscriber
    And, to be clear, when I say insta shipped, he was grabbing his 4+ stacks of red ($5) chips to push them in literally as I was placing my bet out in front of me.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    AXhh is impossible given the Ah is on the board.

    Against an unknown, I would assume that they would not 3 bet TT. Typically, only about 10-15% of players at my local casino 3 bet TT, if not lower than that. Most live small stakes NL players will only 3 bet AK and QQ+. Some will only 3 bet KK+. Some won't even 3 bet without AA.

    I would not include AK-AJ in his range readless. People don't just jam it instantly, so even half the combos is a bit much. I might put that at like 5-10% of the time, with it being more likely with AK than AJ.

    You need to add T8 and A8.
  • NicholasK Posts: 237Member
    edited January 2014
    I'm somewhat inexperienced so, please, take this with a grain of salt. From a 30 something neatly dressed I'd expect this to be a protection bet a lot of the time, but I wouldn't expect him to be nitting it up either (he's seen Negreanu play 10,8 off and win). I'd put a lot of 2 pair and AK in his range not liking the texture of this flop. I think I call because we beat 10 8, A8 and AK
  • TJ Posts: 239Subscriber
    Sorry, it was As 8h (fixed in the OP), because I remember thinking that TP+FD was a lot of his range.
  • TJ Posts: 239Subscriber
    AXhh is impossible given the Ah is on the board.


    I would not include AK-AJ in his range readless. People don't just jam it instantly, so even half the combos is a bit much. I might put that at like 5-10% of the time, with it being more likely with AK than AJ.
    That's a good point. Thanks.
    You need to add T8 and A8
    Duh on me. Thanks again.

  • TJ Posts: 239Subscriber
    I'd put a lot of 2 pair and AK in his range not liking the texture of this flop. I think I call because we beat 10 8, A8 and AK
    Do you think he insta jams the made part of his range? Seems like he'd at least think about a raise sizing with two pair+. (I'm not disagreeing with you, just curious what your thoughts are.)
  • San Hoser Posts: 16Subscriber
    For an unknown, I would also include hands like T8s and A8s, i'd also include the full range of AQ, but not AJs. Unless you had observed history I'd assume TT was always flatted. Also given the board, he can't have Axhh, but the other combo draws make sense. For some villains, you can even throw in a combo of AA.
  • TJ Posts: 239Subscriber
    Against an unknown, I actually completely discounted AA, because there is exactly one combo of it, and it gets played this way.......2% of the time? Against an FPS player I might include it.
  • San Hoser Posts: 16Subscriber
    "For some villains"
  • NicholasK Posts: 237Member
    Excuse my ramblings, this is my thought process. This is also extrapolating a lot from some very minor data...this is only how I look at things until I see something more concrete.

    We assume he's bad because the overbet should only be used in very specific situations...not against an unknown with an uncapped range in a $5 blind game.

    There are 3 reasons people typically overbet:
    To get max value from worse
    As a bluff
    To "protect" against the draws.

    His age/race is consistent with someone fairly new to the game (under 8 years) his play suggests he's not an internet phenom. I'd guess he know suited connectors can be good but doesn't understand the WAWB concept. Those players are more prone to overplaying hands like bottom two on a draw heavy board.

    Of course Top pair and a flush draw is in there too...but I don't see a shove very often from a probable best hand with a nut redraw without a straight already on the board. Combo draws are in there too but against his whole range I think you're ahead a lot of the time.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    In most instances players dont play their draws fast.. with one exception tp and the nut flush draw.. There they see this as the nuts already and will shovel the money in. I see him overplaying this hand as the most likely situation where one would instabet.. If he had flopped a set of 8s I would think he would pause a second because he hadnt thought about what he would do on the flop..

    I would therefore put alot and I mean ALOT of weight to A2-AQ or even AK if he is tight looking as you said. I also see weak players not raising with AK because they see it as a drawing hand..

    So I would really discount TT because hero has a ten and again I would think that he would not insta bet with that.. So that leaves

    AhXh (all combos) T8 (say all suited combos- 3) 88 maybe 1 combo and A8 say half combos.. ok you can throw in one combo draw .. TT -ok 1 combo.. AA-no combos..

    You can see that against this range where only two hands beats you.. and one hand has more equity (say the oesfd) and the rest you have pretty crushed.. this in theory should be a snap call.

    too bad you hadnt seen him play before.. Cuz if I had seen him do this with say AA or KK postflop then that would be good information.. or he insta shoved with a set.. but again most players are not going to ship that big for a set.. yes they will raise BIG but not 400 ..

    there are always outliers tho..

    ww
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