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5/5 playing AQ from BB

TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
edited January 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
UTG, CO, BTN, SB limp, Hero makes it 35 with A Q from BB, UTG and CO call. 3 way.
(120) K 6 2 Hero bets 65, UTG calls, CO folds
(250) J Hero ?

UTG is older reg, possibly small winner but not theoretically sound. Can bluff when see weakness.
What's our plan for this hand from here?

Comments

  • NicholasK Posts: 237Member
    I don't think you're getting a K to fold in this spot, not on the turn and not on any blank river. You have a lot of outs to the KX hands (except the Kh). I'd check planning to keep in his bluffs, planning to check/call. I'm probably giving this up on the river if I don't hit my A !0 or hearts.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    NicholasK said:
    I'd check planning to keep in his bluffs, planning to check/call.

    What hand do you think he calls on the flop that needs to bluff this turn?
  • DavidTuchman Posts: 784Pro
    I'm actually firing a second bullet here. You've got a ton of equity against your opponents range and your villain could be taking one off with 99 or some middle pair and a second barrel should get those hands out. He's probably not folding a K, but you get anything worse than that out. And even if he has a King, we probably have 14 outs. 
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    DavidTuchman said:
    And even if he has a King, we probably have 14 outs. 

    Vs Kx we have 11 outs. (14 + 14 + 5) / 3 = 11.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Vs 99 we have 17 outs and a good chance we get free river which we also can bluff cause this line is consistent with AK (no hearts) and nut flush (in his eyes).
    So my thinking is:
    His range consists of made flushes, Kx, and PP. Bet on the turn is only good vs PP part of it and we can delay this bet until river. So I don't think betting turn is a very good idea.
  • JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
    I think this one depends a lot upon our image.  It can go either way. 
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Our image is agro. He knows we're playing draws aggressively.

  • DavidTuchman Posts: 784Pro
    edited February 2014
    Unless I'm missing something, you have 14 outs against Kx ... 9 hearts for a flush + 3 tens to make a straight +  2 aces to give you top pair. 



  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    Against K I have only 5 clean outs.
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