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Flop a big draw - factors for raising vs calling flop?

PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
edited January 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Both these hands took place at $2/5 $200-500. 

This is less about one hand than about what factors would cause you guys to raise flop with these types of draws vs call flop and either bet turn if checked, raise turn if villain bets, or something just call and try to hit.

I've noticed that a lot of times when people raise flop on wet boards fish assume you have a draw. I had a hand today where I raised AK, flopped Ah Kx 8h and I cbet/3b shoved over a rather large check/raise from the BB. After the hand (which I won) both the guy who check/raised and another player were convinced I had either Kxhh or some kind of straight/flush draw. In fact, they both agreed that they "put me on" KQhh. 

Obviously not the same as flopping a draw, but I've found that when the board is wet (especially a disconnected flushing board like T62ss) fish will often just assume you have a draw if you raise flop which is great if we have a set but less great when we have a draw and want folds.

Here are 2 quick example hands I played last week. Wondering what goes into deciding whether to raise or call flop. I'm talking about reads, boards, our specific hand and equity etc.

Assume $500 effective in both hands.

Hand 1:

UTG raises $25, hero calls from MP with AJhh, BB calls. $75 in the pot. Flop comes 9h 6c 3h. BB checks, UTG bets $40, hero?

Hand 2: 

Villain raises to $20 from MP, 1 call, hero calls in the BB with Js9s. Pot $60. Flop comes Qs Td 4s. Hero checks, PFR bets $45, caller folds, hero?

Just a note - I called out of the BB because villain was extremely terrible and fishy.

Just kind of wondering what influences your flop play on both of these hands, 1 in position and 1 OOP.

Comments

  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,827Subscriber
    This actually came up a little bit in a post by TDf I believe. Well I brought it up anyways. It's a spot I deal with a lot too as well.

    I think the main thing I've settled on is if we have fold equity and if we get paid off if we hit by Vil.

    The higher the chance we get paid off by villian I'm more willing to take a passive line. If villain is rely weak tight then I'm more willing to raise.

    This is a very basic explaination for my thinking. I'm interested to hear others here.
    by 1TDF
  • TJ Posts: 239Subscriber
    If villain or villains are tight passive, I'm more likely to raise these draws. If villains are loose passive, I'm more likely to call and value bet them to death if I hit.

    IOW, if there is FE, I probably raise. If not, I probably call. Simplistic, perhaps. But effective, I think.

    Of course with 15 out draws, doesn't even the tiniest bit of FE make raising a +EV play?

    Consider this: In the example above with a flush draw + overs, assuming you're heads up with a station, which is higher EV? Shoving, because sometimes you'll have a lower draw crushed? Or calling and betting when you hit because villain almost never folds?
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    I think the two hands are different.  The first hand, you have last action vs. a blind and an UTG raiser, and I would therefore take a more passive line.  All overpairs and top set are in UTG's range, and I'm not in the business of raising people off hands that strong, so just call and hit your hand, or bet OTT if checked to.  No need to "push the action" with A-high vs. an UTG pre-flop raise. 

    Hand number 2, you are out of position.  Instead of thinking about check/raising this hand (because you have a "monster draw"), why not donk-lead for $40-$50?  Donk-leading disguises your draw as your hand looks like a pair most of the time.  You will almost certainly not get raised by the PFR unless he has a monster (AA at a minimum, maybe not even that hand) and you can get more value on future streets if you hit your hand, and if you miss, you can evaluate how MP called your flop bet and decide if you have any FE for a double barrel.  If not, you can check/call or check/fold depending upon your read of villain. 

    I'm not a big fan of pushing "big draws" in NLHE unless you are quite sure you have a decent amount of FE, and you only know that if you have playing experience with villain.  FE is not only a function of how tight or loose villain is, but also how villain perceives your play, whether or not villain perceives you as spewy or straight-forward, etc. 
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    villain dependent, villain dependent, villain dependent. if you think you have fold equity, it's fine to raise either of these hands. generally, raise bigger, to 4x or even a little larger to accomplish the mission. even multi-way, once you get past the pre flop raiser, it's tough for the others to call. but generally better to just try to hit and get paid. only because players don't like to fold. you can't come up with a plan ahead of time other than: i'll have to assess my villain's ability to fold a decent hand against me. and when it's a close call, just try to hit the hand rather than betting them off theirs.
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    edited February 2014
    In Hand 1, flat-call the AJhh NFD for the following reasons:

    1. The UTG PFR is unlikely to have dominated draws except KQhh (I would be much more likely to raise the AJhh NFD if the PFR were a CO/BTN raiser because of the likelier chances of dominating a weaker draw since late position raisers could have suited Broadways and SCs in their range)
    2. The BB is much more likely to have suited hands, so we should give him a chance to over-call with weaker draws.
    3. If the PFR is c-betting AK/AQ/air, we can always take away the pot on the turn by betting when checked to, OR bluff-raising a turn overcard (Q/K) if Villain is a thinking player

    In Hand 2, check-raise the J9ss OESD+FD for the following reasons:

    1. We have a monster 15-out draw that is a favorite equity-wise against one pair hands, 50/50 against top 2 pair, and only a slight underdog to sets and the NFD. Therefore, we don't need very much FOLD EQUITY for check-raising to be the most +EV option.

    2. We have 2 combos of QTs (top 2 pair) and 6 combos of TTT/444 (set) for a total of 8 value combos in our perceived check-raising range. This is enough value combos to credibly represent 2pair+ and get some FOLD EQUITY against one pair hands.

    3. Check-raising J9s OESD+FD is the best way to fold out AK/AJ whiffed hands that still beat us because check/calling OOP on flop on a wet flop will make our hand look face-up as a draw and will get us hero-called by Ace-high on blank run-outs if we try to bet river as a bluff after turn checks through.
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    floppedawheel said:
    villain dependent, villain dependent, villain dependent. if you think you have fold equity, it's fine to raise either of these hands. generally, raise bigger, to 4x or even a little larger to accomplish the mission. even multi-way, once you get past the pre flop raiser, it's tough for the others to call. but generally better to just try to hit and get paid. only because players don't like to fold. you can't come up with a plan ahead of time other than: i'll have to assess my villain's ability to fold a decent hand against me. and when it's a close call, just try to hit the hand rather than betting them off theirs.


    I generally disagree with the recommendation of going for a 4x check-raise because it makes us "look like a draw" when we bomb check-raise it up to such a large sizing. Against decent/good thinking players and semi-thinking rec players, I think a more normal sizing between 3x to 3.5x will actually give our check-raise semi-bluff MORE FOLD EQUITY.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    David Chan said:
    [quote="floppedawheel"]Against decent/good thinking players and semi-thinking rec players, I think a more normal sizing between 3x to 3.5x will actually give our check-raise semi-bluff MORE FOLD EQUITY.
     

    i don't play in the games you play, but that describes less than 50% of players at many 2/5 200-500 games.... but yeah, i can agree that 3.5x will probably get the same job done as 4x or a little more.
  • TDF Posts: 1,130Subscriber
    More FE I have - more likely I would raise draw.
    More showdown value I have - less likely I would raise draw.
    More dead money in the pot (callers) - more likely I would raise draw.
    More stationy villains - less likely I would raise draw.

    When I raise flop on the draw I bet turn almost always. I expect most villains to fold OTT way more often than OTF.

    #TDF
  • t_roy Posts: 84Subscriber
    I'm surprised no one brought up position. I'm much more likely to flat IP cause I can get more value when I hit my draw.
    by 1TDF
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