Villain 1 ($600) Good thinking player. I assume he's a pro or very serious rec player as he's always at the casino. Somewhat aggressive preflop - I think he probably opens JJ/TT almost all of the time. Not super stationy - I don't know if he limp/calls JTo UTG but I would tend to doubt it or at least think it's unlikely. He might even raise JTs UTG sometimes, although it's possible he would limp/call. He's not super aggro, but I think he knows enough that when the PFR checks and a field player bets it's a good spot to attack. Whether he actually does attack in these spots I don't know.
Villain 2 ($700) Younger woman. Playing extremely passively and somewhat stationy. Basically never raises without 2 pair +, but if checked to her she'll definitely bet worse than that. I think if it goes raise/shove in front of her she's folding probably anything worse than JT unless she somehow flatted aces or something, but even then she might fold to this kind of aggression. She always bets small regardless of hand strength because I think she just doesn't understand bet sizing.
Hero ($500) Somewhat bad image. Lost a bunch of small to medium hands and I've been extremely card dead. Haven't played many hands in about an hour. Villain 1 should at least know I play a lot and probably thinks I'm a decent player. If I were to jam here he'd have to be concerned about my range as I play fairly tight and he knows this.
BB ($500) Stationy rec fish
Villain 1 limps UTG
Hero (CO) Ac Ks raises to $25
Villain 2 (Button) calls $25
Villain 1 calls
Flop: Jd Tc 6s
Checks to hero, hero checks, Villain 2 bets $40, BB folds, Villain 1 raises to $125, hero?
At first I was thinking snap fold, but then I thought what does this guy rep. If he's opening JJ/TT pre that's out the window. He has 3 combos of 66. I don't think he's really limp/calling JTo UTG so there's only 2 combos of JTs and he might even open that some of the time. So basically 5 combos of actual value hands here. I'm obviously doing bad against that value range - I'm only 16% vs those 2 hands.
Button has made such a weak bet (although to be fair she always bets small, even with nut type hands). Villain 1 could be picking up on that and making a move. I haven't really seen him do this, but once I check and BB folds he basically has to get through one weak bettor and he wins.
If I were to jam here I assume he would end up calling with JTs but my line would honestly be so strong I'm sure it would be a puke call even with top 2.
I would probably just bet with my actual value range. I don't really have a check/raising range 2nd to last to act as the PFR. But even if you knew that, who check/cold reraises as the PFR basically ever? Just wondering if there is ever any merit in making this play?
Pot would be about $265 and I'd have to jam $475 to make the play. According to my calculations the play would have to work about 65% of the time.
I guess I could raise to like $275 and fold to a shove - if I make it much bigger than that i'm getting close to the equity I would need to call if he has JTs or 66.
I actually didn't make the play, just thinking of his range I'm wondering if this is ever the kind of play I could make.
I want to be clear - I would only ever make this play against a good, thinking player who I know wouldn't limp JJ/TT and probably JTo and could attack a field player. I would just snap fold vs a rec and not think twice.