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River spot multi way - 2.50/5 NL

AGBAGB Posts: 103Member
edited February 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Played this badly but rather focus on the river decision as played.


2.50/5 NL

BB - Old man nit reg ($400)
MP - Rec Fish, clearly drunk, never seen him, in his first orbit. ( $490 )
CO - tournament player, first time I've seen him, is talking a lot, sounds conceptually competent but from what I've seen playing bad LAG ( $580 )
BTN - Hero - tight image , though no ones really paying attention ( $560 )

Pre Flop

MP limps  $5 with (XX)
CO raises to $20 with (XX)
BTN (Hero) calls $20 with 8s9s
BB calls with (XX)
MP calls the $15 more.

Flop - Th 9d 7h  ( Pot - $ 82.50 ) 

BB checks
MP ( drunk ) donk leads for $35
CO calls 
Hero calls 
BB calls

Turn ( As ) - Th 9d 7h As ( Pot - $ 222.50 )

BB checks
MP thinks for about 10 secs then looking very drunk bets $75
CO takes about a min cutting out like he is going to raise and then just calls
Hero calls
BB calls

River ( Jh )    ..for a final board of : 

Th 9d 7h As Jh ( Pot - $522.50 )

BB checks
MP instantly throws out $200 leaving $160 behind
CO looks pained and folds 
Hero  -- Still have BB to act behind.  What's the play ?

Comments

  • Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited February 2014
    I wrote up a whole post saying you should fold and it's the easiest fold ever if the BB leads out into that field and it's on you.

    I missed that the BB checks and the drunk guy bets $200. 

    I still think it's a pretty easy fold though. Drunk or not, this would be a pretty awful spot to bluff and I just don't believe he would bet anything other than a flush. The way this hand went down, with a million players all the way to the end, someone very likely has hearts. If anyone doesn't have hearts, they should be rightfully afraid one of the other players does. Betting that river vs. 3 opponents, even after one of them checks, is indicative of a flush more often than not. Most rec guys, drunk or not, will check and try and get to showdown with a straight or anything else other than a flush.

    You might be chopping sometimes, maybe, I dunno. But I doubt it. Also, the bb could still easily have a flush and is waiting for someone to bet his hand for him. It's a shitty spot to lead out for him if he rivered the nuts, because he's going to get massive credit and probably only get called by other flushes, if that. Most nitty old guys like to play a trapping style, which is really not that incorrect. They play so few hands, they're going to get a lot of folds when they do all of a sudden start betting, and lose out on value they might get from aggressive players value owning themselves of bluffing.

    But anyway, in this hand, I think that's almost beside the point. Player profiles be damned. The board, the action on the river, and the sheer number of players calling the entire way makes this a pretty easy fold. 

    Now if it had checked to you, then you have a case for betting or checking it back, but i just don't feel like you're good here very often.


  • AGBAGB Posts: 103Member
    edited February 2014
    I agree, with the drunks small sizing and pacing on flop and turn then the larger river bet i thought a FD was almost all his range. I oringally was going to title the post tricky spot or no brainer fold ?

    I should of included that i have played a ton of hours with the old man and he will lead this river a large amount of the time with a flush , it's just his MO, guess he is not a true nit, but 60 yr old + greek guy kinda nitty. So I wasn't concerned with him as much as the drunk who surely must have a flush draw at worst a chop .

    I tanked thinking that at best it was a chop, in the end I made what is a bad call even though the old man folded and the drunk turned over a retarded TK off suit. Not a hero call just bad play on my part,..Just thought the Jh river was interesting vs drunk unknown.
  • Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    Well it's just one of those juicy spots that come up rarely in live poker. If you see a player made a play this bad, you must adjust your gameplan. Without reads I'm folding. But if I get any kind of indication he's playing on that level of tilt, any quality hand becomes a tough laydown. 

    Gotta love 2-5


  • AGBAGB Posts: 103Member
    You were spot on with you assessment and even after the drunk turned over his hand I still was a little upset with myself for making the call, trying not to be results orientated as I never though he'd bluff there. So no brainier fold.

    That being said I used to only play during the day Monday to Friday but when this hand went down I was playing Friday and Saturday nights as to where I was living at the time The casino only ran poker then. I have found that the overly intoxicated heavily tattotted guys who are clearly inexperienced have increased my win rate by like 50% and the variance too probably heh. Also I'm in Australia and the games ( I imagine ) are much softer then in the US. Think 2007.
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