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Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

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river 2 pair: value bet or check call

2/5 game Effective stacks 1100

Player A (V): Raise pre to 25 in mid position, and will stack off with an over pair. player next to him calls and sb calls.
player B I have 7-5 off. and I know this might be a little light pre. Especially since I am bad position. But I feel he will stack off.

$100 Flop: jc 8s 6d

sb leads for 50. I call and player a makes it 200. He would do this with any over pair, AJ, KJ hand. Also, he could have a flopped set. But I am guessing sb has a j most of the time.

SB fold and I think and I call. I figured I am getting good odds and I still think I get paid. Especially if he has a set or aa or kk.

$550 Turn is a 7h. I check and he goes same bet. $200. I have the same range and I feel I can hit many cards to improve. I call. I can fold but I figured the odds are too good. If I hit a 7 he won't fold a top pair or over pair hand. Only problem my hand looks like a draw. So, do I get paid if I hit my 9?

$950: river is a 5. I ran into 2 pair. I think for a few seconds and I check. I should have thought longer, but I was going to check call because I don't know how he has a 9 in his hands at all. He does like to bluff, but after the hand took place I thought what hand is he bluffing?

Question is: Do I fold pre, flop or turn?
River: do I bet the river: I have 675 left. Can I bet to get value from over pairs/ top pair hands? how much? or do I turn my hand in to a bluff to get sets to fold. I know more combos of hands I beat. The other thing I was thinking was a merge of both. Make it look like a value bet and get hands to fold most of the time, but get called sometimes and get value. After talking to a friend we came up with a bet of 300. This might get paid or get better hands to fold. I know this guy likes to stack off, but the board is scary and my hand looks like a draw.

thoughts?

Comments

  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    I like the $300 river value bet. You may actually get value from an overpair. I think he almost never raises given how scary the raise is, but I can safely fold if he does.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Bet the river 100% as a value bet. There are a lot of hands you can get value from that are checking back this river.
  • So, he checked and he had a set of 8s. And after I thought: if i ship i get that to fold. But then I thought the hand over and I was thinking I don't want a fold on the river. If I bet I will get called by a lot of hands that I beat, but I think any bet gets a fold sometimes.

    thanks for the advice.
  • LarryLido Posts: 52Member
    Calling PF seems like spew to me, I'd wait for a better spot. . The bet is too large and you're out of position. I'm finding it hard to analyze the rest of the hand since you don't label the Villains or Players (ie. V1/V2 or P1/P2).
  • Player A (V1): Raise pre to 25 in mid position, and will stack off with an over pair. player next to him calls and sb calls.
    player B (hero) I have 7-5 off. and I know this might be a little light pre. Especially since I am bad position. But I feel he will stack off.

    $100 Flop: jc 8s 6d

    sb (he can be vs, but small role) leads for 50. I call( hero) and player a (v1) makes it 200. He would do this with any over pair, AJ, KJ hand. Also, he could have a flopped set. But I am guessing sb has a j most of the time.

    SB fold and I think and I call. I figured I am getting good odds and I still think I get paid (hero calls). Especially if he has a set or aa or kk.

    $550 Turn is a 7h. I (hero) check and player a (V1) goes same bet. $200. I have the same range and I feel I can hit many cards to improve. I call (Hero). I can fold but I figured the odds are too good. If I hit a 7 he won't fold a top pair or over pair hand. Only problem my hand looks like a draw. So, do I get paid if I hit my 9?

    $950: river is a 5. I(hero) ran into 2 pair. I think for a few seconds and I check. I should have thought longer, but I was going to check call because I don't know how he has a 9 in his hands at all. He does like to bluff, but after the hand took place I thought what hand is he bluffing?


    i hope this makes more sense. Basically the hand is against one player. There was 4 to the flop.
  • LarryLido Posts: 52Member
    PF you have a garbage hand and are in the 2nd worst position at the table. This is an insta-fold for me. Playing speculative hands from OOP will cost you a lot of money in the long run against even halfway competent players. That said, I would probably make the call PF with any PP or 1 gap SC+ given your firm assurance that our Villain sucks and cannot fold an overpair 200BB deep (which is hard to believe but I'll take your word for it).

    OTF we basically hit gin here; we flopped an open ended straight draw and must now play it OOP multi-way. When the SB leads out for half pot against 3 players I'd put in on a set, the same hand as Hero, or a Jack with kicker problems (JK-J10). You give no player profile or stack size for this Villain but I'd assume he's somewhat standard and is unlikely to lead out into the PFR with a set, and he is highly unlikely to have the same hand as us since, not only should he have folded it PF unless its suited, there are only 2 combos of 57 suited left in the deck. Therefore I agree with the OP that this villain is heavily weighted toward Jx. In most cases this would be a great spot to raise and apply some pressure, but since we still have another player and the PFR to act its a fold. (This is why you don't play these hands from OOP!!!) If the PFR had an over pair as you guessimate, you can expect a raise here so he can play for stacks (again not knowing stack sizes here sucks). But instead you call and hope for no one to raise. But the PFR doesn't call he raises to $200 and eliminates the other players in the process. So now we're heads up and being offered 2.6-1 ($150 to win $400) to call an OESD which requires 5-1 odds. While you describe these as good odds in your post they aren't even close to correct. If implied odds are taken into account we need to make $750 ($150x5) off the hand when we hit the draw to achieve neutral EV. That's only a $350 bet between the remaining 2 streets when the pot will be at $550 OTT if we call so the call here is actually fine.

    OTT, we hit a pair to go with our OESD and give ourselves a likely 13 outer against a villain whose range seems heavily weighted toward overpairs. The Villains weak "same bet" turn sizing gives us almost correct odds to draw here, but these bets often mean scared TPMK hands from my experience and I'd be tempted to raise here. But since this Villain can't fold overpairs (that's why we're in this hand) I'd probably just flat.

    OTR, this is a mandatory B/F unless the player is likely to spazz and reraise a worse hand since he knows he's already committed. Give what little we know about this villain, it's hard to say. Sticking to our original game plan, and rationale for even playing this hand, we should now jam it in and expect an overpair to call.
  • You can't depend on your opponents valuebetting one pair on a 4 straightening board at these levels. Only the best would put you on a J and try to get thin value. You must B/F river and I like the $300 sizing you decided upon.

    Bart
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