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Check raise flop bet turn then big raise... fold?

ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I have significantly improved my hand reading lately.. but this hand has had me thinking for a few days. Here is the hand history. Villain raises in mid pos to 13 ..his standard in 2/3 100-300 game at Bike. No other besides me in pot. We both have over 500 and I have 89 clubs. I call. He was a younger guy that has made some moves but when he put in money he had it.

Flop comes 7 10 J two dias. I flop the nuts and decide to go for check raise to build pot. Villain bets 25.. I raise to 75.. he called pretty quickly..

Turn J.. Now I bet 100 and he raises to 250...

He called pretty fast on flop so I cant really have him on set .. overpairs I think would think more.. AJ might call that quickly and if he had two pair I also think he probably would reraise.. BUT.. why raise now on turn.. when I am repping min of a J? Given our stacks this would be an all in or fold..

Thoughts?

Comments

  • WillWay Posts: 35Member
    Hey Wendy, think this may be a protection bet against your perceived flush draw w gutshot (maybe like A9d,K9d,Q9d)? AJ as you said might call fast in that spot, and he has 2 more combos of that hnd than JT. 77,TT (6 combos) are possible but harder to flop. His image was good, and he knows you can bet/fold as a good player...tough spot. You're over 70% against any other broadway combos w J other than JT. He is really bad shape with the overpairs, and could have bet J on the turn and no diamond. Way ahead, or way behind...I think he protects the flopped set/two pairs and 4 bets, while calling with toptop, broadway Js more often. Seems like he'd never checkraise missed flushes on the turn, so big Jax seem likely. Folding leaves you with almost 2/3 your stack, while the alternative commits you. His weaker combo holdings far outweigh his nut ranges if we don't think he is flushing, so I shove personally based on the way he played the hand (13 winning, 42 losing=55 total, with around 75% losing). Bart is right about combo counting being impossible in realtime, but maybe there is some way to paraphrase in similar situations...like the post Wendy, had me thinking for a while too : )
  • Sick spot with these stack sizes. In a deeper situation I can see a call check fold be prudent. AS crazy as it sounds I have been playing more $5-5 NL and I think that laying big hands like this down is just not a winning strategy. Sounds crazy but I don't think you can be wrong to just get it in here. Rarely do I see a guy just flat flop with set and then raise turn when he boats up.

    Bart
  • ^ Yeah. I'd just all in here. He has AJ or KJ a lot. If he slow played a set on the flop, nh.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Yeah after the session I was really thinking the same thing. Sometimes I overvalue my opponents range when they raise the turn since this is so often a value hand. But I didnt wind the hand back enough to realize that two or a set was unlikely given his flop quick call. I think now that KJ or even AJ was much more likely then a full house. But like a girl.. lol.. I folded...

    wimpy wimpy wimpy...

    but the good news is that I am doing a better job thinking these through and now I don't think I would fold but go all in. I just have to keep reminding myself that its only 250 more and with the action he just has trips..

    thanks guys!
  • nubbbbby Posts: 5Member
    You say you check raise to build the pot........I think you would be better off leading into the PFR. A checkraise will fold out a lot of one pair hands and could potentially fold out an overpair. By leading you give them the option of raising the flop and you don't allow them to potentially check back some marginal hands on such a wet board.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    nubbbbby said

    You say you check raise to build the pot........I think you would be better off leading into the PFR. A checkraise will fold out a lot of one pair hands and could potentially fold out an overpair. By leading you give them the option of raising the flop and you don't allow them to potentially check back some marginal hands on such a wet board.
    I thought about that but with the nuts and I expected villain to bet flop, I thought I could check raise to build the pot. Overall I think that is the best way to get the money in.. I just didnt expect his turn play and I chickened out..

    wimpy wimpy wimpy.. lol..

    h
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