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weird preflop spot

briandavis Posts: 15Subscriber
Playing 2/5/10 plo at Winstar, Ok..only been at table for 15 min when this hand came up, My stack (1400) table seems to be pretty loose with only a couple players that ive played with before. I make it 40 utg with QQ99cc...we are 7 handed btw atm. 3 callers then the sb makes it 140. Bb calls. Straddler folds. I call. Field caller with a (650) stack ships in. Hes a spazz, not gonna give him the AA. Sb who made it 100 more originally calls with (2500) behind. Bb calls with everyone covered.....at this point I feel it is very likely that I have the best hand, maybe I run into KK some of the time and hard for me to put anyone on AA being rhe squeezer is a spazz and the two callers didnt reship.....I can either call the extra 500 and have 800 behind or move in the 800 more cause I think I have best hand a lot or just fold cause shit its gonna be 4 way all in with Queens lol....Thoughts please

Comments

  • jk3a Posts: 46Subscriber
    edited February 2014
    Not super confident on my multiway ev math here, but I'll take a shot.  I think it looks like this if we assume you jam and they both call and see a showdown. 

    You'd have 28% equity in the 2600 main pot and 36% equity in the 2250 side pot.  For a total of $1538 in ev.  Which seems about right as you're slightly better than 25% 4 ways and slightly better than 33% 3 ways for $138 +ev after we deduct your stack. 

    It looks like you'll flop 23% equity or better around 42% of the time.  I used 23% because that is the breakevenish number assuming you get 1 caller on the rest of your stack(prob most likely scenario). 

    Let's say 58% of the time you fold postlop and lose the 650: -$377.  Of the 42% of the time you get the other 800 in lets guess you have say 35% equity in the main pot and 55% equity in the side.  35%(2600) + 55%(1600) = ($1790 - 800) * 42% = 416

    416- 377 = $39.  Obviously I'm making a boatload of simplifying assumptions here to do a comparison as the real EV calc would be exhausting. 

    Without doing any math at all, I would have guessed calling and pumping the rest in on the flops you don't hate is likely better unless you have a bunch of fold equity pf(I assume you don't). 

    The postflop all in guesses I made of 35 and 55 could certainly be wrong and are super key to the calculation. 

    Long story short, as long as you don't fold pf or stick it in on shitty flops, you win.     


    ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.26 Professional)
    33596 trials (randomized)


    All-in Equity
    image

    How often do(es)
    PLAYER_1 have hand vs. hand equity of at least 23% on the flop

    42.2193% (14184)


    If someone wants to delve into the postflop EV further you would try to weight the 4 scenarios.  You bet 800 and they both fold, you get it in with both, you get it in vs 1 other, it checks down.  I think what would generally be found is that calling and playing postflop is probably better.
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