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Even a donkey wins every once in a while...

ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
So to start I think I played this kinda bad.. but how bad I want your opinions. I think the turn was close and thats where having a weird stack size came into play.

Meta game.. I am playing rather tight because I have been card dead for hours. Very loose player on my right has check raised me on a all heart board with J5 suited which was bottom two pair. I had AK and was just cbetting. I have literally won only one decent pot since I got to this table and its a good table ..no really good players and filled with players who are either weak or loose.. Effective stacks are around 550-600 (me) everyone else has me covered.

Loosey goosey guy limps (again) I think small pair and he could have ANY suited cards..I see AJ hearts I raise to 25.. the sb calls and is a weak passive player. Loosey also calls. (75 after rake)

Flop J 9h 2 rainbow..

I bet something like 45.. dry board and loosey will peel with any piece.. sb folds and LG calls.. Pot now has (165)

Turn 5 hearts.. So now I have tptk and the nut flush draw.. I wondered about checking behind because of my big draw but I thought the board is still dry and so I made another smallish value bet.. 60

Now LG raises 200 on top.. now I dont think this guy was slowplaying on the flop he has been fast playing everything.. so he must have hit that 5.. now he also has been playing any two suited cards so 95 25 are all in his range.. So with my having a bit less than 400 left what is my play?
If I count my outs I am assuming an ace , Jack or heart would be good since lucky for me the 9 and 5 are both hearts.. if all are ok that 14 outs.. that would equate to around 30% equity pot has in it 165+ my 60+ 260 =485 200 t0 call gets me around 3.4:1 ? hopefully I am doing the match correct this time.. so 3.4 :1 will get me around 29% equity.. and I figure he will call off to my shove when I hit since I am now so short stack or shove and I will call..

so if I add my stack and his stack to the pot it will be 485+ 180+180=845 200 to call.. now this is a clear call but I might not hit and will saw my last 180 bucks if I dont.

River A spades.. he shoves and I snap and he showed 95 clubs.. he turned two pair and made a big reraise to get me off my hand.. Anyways i am writing this while having taken an Ambien so I hope my match isnt all screwed up..

how bad was the call?

WendyEmbarassed

Comments

  • LarryLido Posts: 52Member
    If your Villain turned his cards over and showed you the two pair, you could still call so long as he will call off a $155 river value bet into a $685 pot when you hit, which most players will do even when the fd scare card hits. But mind you this play only gets you to neutral EV. You are correct to question your pot odds in this aforementioned scenario, but not your implied odds. Now back to the actual hand, your Villain has lot of draws and bluffs in his range, especially since your image is probably pretty weak since you've been card dead for hours. In sum, I think you played the hand fine. The only issue I might take is with your sizing on the turn, which is so small that you may well incite a bluff since it looks weak. But this is highly player dependent. If your villain is capable of spazz bluffing when he smells weakness, I'd size a little bigger even though I appreciate the fact that you're putting your Villain on a range and betting to get called by dominated hands.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    Not to be results oriented, but if you checked the turn, you would have avoided this problem :D

    Against someone loose and with an above-average frequency of check-raises, sometimes I'll check back the turn because I don't want to get blown off my hand with a redraw. Obviously, if I had AJ without a redraw, I would bet and fold to a C/R

    You have to be pretty sure he wouldn't slowplay a flopped set or have called the flop with 55 with your equity calculation. Because you have way fewer than 14 outs if he has a set, and then when you hit one of your perceived "outs" that actually fill him up, you lose more.

    I probably stubbornly call the turn the way you did. Especially if it's from a card dead session ;)
  • LarryLido Posts: 52Member
    Claire,
    I agree with you Bartonia perspective on B/Fing the TP without a draw and checking back the TP with a redraw, I don't think that applies here. This Villain isn't described as a slowplayer or as a bluffer. Furthermore, since Wendy said he's fast playing everything I'd discount all sets as well including 55. And because he's "Loosey Goosey" I'd bet that he's peeling the flop bet with any pair. My point here is that his range is too wide to check back the turn.
  • StopHammertimeStopHammertime Posts: 81Member
    Kent,

    respectfully, I don't agree with your math. She's not betting $155 to win $155 + $685; she's calling $200 for a chance to hit her hand and win $485 outright, which she will (against 95s) around 36% of the time, plus whatever he can give us on the river. The pot is giving us 41.24% expressed odds, so calling for JUST the pot is bad. But we know that's not what she's doing.

    I think Villain's range is 25s, 95s, 55. Why? Because I don't see a reason to believe that Villain would play a turned set any differently than a turned two pair. If he's calling the flop with 25s, why wouldn't he call the flop with 55? And if he makes a big hand with 25s and check-raises, why would we expect him to do any different when he makes a big hand with 55? Against that range, she's got 29.55% equity.

    Back to the call on the flop. She can make this call if she can win $556 total [(1/0.36) * $200 call] from the Villain and the pot when she makes her hand against his specific hand. There's $485 in the pot already, so we need to get $71 on the river from the Villain from all the times we make our hand, including the times when he folds as we make our flush or top-pair pairs and we make trips. That's specifically against 95s. I think that's a pretty reasonable expectation, so given his specific hand, I think the call is fine.

    Against what I believe to be his full range, we need to make $677 [(1/0.2955) * $200 call] from the Villain and the pot when she makes her hand. $677 minus $485 in the pot means that she needs to make $192 on the river. She doesn't even have $192 left; and that's what she needs to make on all the times he folds when she makes a better hand. So given the range I assigned the Villain, it's a bad call.

    Edit: I also agree with your assessment, Kent, that Villain has draws here sometimes, too. I don't think he has 43s, though. The most obvious and likely draw to me is QhTh. Her hand against 55,QhTh,95s,52s is 35.1%, so she'd have to make $570 from the pot and the Villain in the end - which is an $85 bet on the river. That's cutting it pretty close I think, but I'd lean towards saying the turn call is fine with that. That might open things up for debate as to whether the turn should be a shove, though.

    Edit 2: Ugh, it's late. I suppose we can throw J5s in there as well, which is only one hand at this point. That needs $88 on the river, so not terribly different than Edit 1.
  • Wendy,

    You have the percentage of equity correct but you are only being laid 2.4-1. (485/200) -- 3.4-1 pot odds yields 1/4.4= .227.

    The Unseen Card Rule--which is what I like to use because I can do division quick in my head and don't have to deal with converting to percentages--if he shows you 95 you have 17 outs. 44/17= 2.58/1. You have a 1 in 2.58 chance of hitting and need 1.58-1 in pot odds to call. You must subtract one form the quotient (division answer) if you want to express the result in odds.


    remember:
    1:1=50% equity-- equation 1/2
    2:1=33.3%--equation 1/3
    3:1= 25% equation 1/4


    Bart
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    KentWebb said

    Claire,
    I agree with you Bartonia perspective on B/Fing the TP without a draw and checking back the TP with a redraw, I don't think that applies here. This Villain isn't described as a slowplayer or as a bluffer. Furthermore, since Wendy said he's fast playing everything I'd discount all sets as well including 55. And because he's "Loosey Goosey" I'd bet that he's peeling the flop bet with any pair. My point here is that his range is too wide to check back the turn.
    Yeah I pretty much discounted 55s altogether.. He was peeling when he hit the board and snap folding to me when he didn't. With two overcards to pocket 5s, I think he would have just folded the flop.

    I guess I am never going to translate the equity % to the correct x:1.. lol.. What I thought was that if I hit my flush, J or A I was good and I would get paid my last $175 given the odds the pot would be laying him. My main concern was if you thought there was enough behind to warrant the call. I thought it was really close and because I was just so damn card dead I decided to call. That was the wrong reason of course.. but overall in situations like this I was curious if I SHOULD call.

    The other aspect that I didnt take into consideration was both the Tilt factor of hitting against this opponent and the donkey equity I might get from other opponents by calling and hitting. In fact LG went on tilt and within a couple of rounds busted and left.. So he went from over 1000 to 0 all because of my hand with him. Also I did end up getting more action after this and my stack went from just over 550 to over 1300 within 45 minutes.

    Wendy
  • LarryLido Posts: 52Member
    Ok. I know this is redundant but just wanna run through this one more time to instill this process in my head.... This is too important to not know by heart.

    I believe my math was correct in my first post; however my input was incorrect. I ran the scenario where we know what our Villain has OTT as a 14 out draw. I missed the three 2s that would give us a higher 2 pair. Can someone double check my math on that? Hypothetically, if we had been on a 14 out draw, then we reach neutral EV when we call his turn raise if our villain calls a $155 river value bet when we hit. Is this correct?

    Now on to the actually 17 out hand...
    OTT, we must call $200 to win $485. So our pot odds are [485/200] 2.4-1.
    We have 17 outs and there are 46 unseen cards so we need [46/17=2.7 2.7-1=1.7] 1.7-1 pot odds to draw correctly. And since our pot odds are better than our drawing odds [2.4>1.7], we can easily correctly draw to our hand using only pot odds. No implied odds necessary.
    Can an someone please verify my math and though process?

    Also, I'm beginning to realize that I should memorize what 45/(any possible number of outs) is.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    I have a different opinion on the optimal line here completely.

    Against a "very loose" villain I believe we have to go to straight up war here 100bb's deep.

    I'm betting at least $65 on the flop and I'm close to potting the turn.

    Why are we betting the turn so small?

    I'd have to check Flopzilla but I wouldn't be surprised if his c/r range on the turn makes up less than 5% of his overall range.

    We have to go for gold here.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    KentWebb said

    Ok. I know this is redundant but just wanna run through this one more time to instill this process in my head.... This is too important to not know by heart.

    I believe my math was correct in my first post; however my input was incorrect. I ran the scenario where we know what our Villain has OTT as a 14 out draw. I missed the three 2s that would give us a higher 2 pair. Can someone double check my math on that? Hypothetically, if we had been on a 14 out draw, then we reach neutral EV when we call his turn raise if our villain calls a $155 river value bet when we hit. Is this correct?

    Now on to the actually 17 out hand...
    OTT, we must call $200 to win $485. So our pot odds are [485/200] 2.4-1.
    We have 17 outs and there are 46 unseen cards so we need [46/17=2.7 2.7-1=1.7] 1.7-1 pot odds to draw correctly. And since our pot odds are better than our drawing odds [2.4>1.7], we can easily correctly draw to our hand using only pot odds. No implied odds necessary.
    Can an someone please verify my math and though process?

    Also, I'm beginning to realize that I should memorize what 45/(any possible number of outs) is.
    Kent I always use the shortcut equity calcl of # of outs *2*number of streets left.. So I completely forgot about the 2s as well that gives me as you pointed out 3 more outs.. so with 17 outs an estimate of 17*2*1=34% equity..

    With 485 in the pot and 200 to call that gives me around 2:1 I can do that easily nuf in my head.. In fact I would know its almost 2.5 to 1.. 34% is somewhere bettween 2.5 and 2:1.. so you are correct that I even have odds to call with the pot and with so little left I am sure to get the rest paid off..

    Skinny.. I was betting small because I wasnt getting called very much.. My image was so tight that I wanted to get some value.. The 5 didnt to me seem like there was any draw he could have hit .. so with him peeling so light I bet an amount I thought I would get called with a 2 or a 9.. Also a little in the back of my mind was what I was going to do if he check raised me again.. I just didnt expect it to be so much..

    Wendy
  • StopHammertimeStopHammertime Posts: 81Member
    Wendy,

    I've thought about this hand some more and I actually think your action on the turn after his check raise is a shove, if the casino allows it. (With less than $200 behind, I BELIEVE [correct me if I'm wrong] some casinos will not let you go all in because it's not a legal raise.) The reason being is that many of your outs are flush outs, and the hands that currently beat you (two pair and sets) sometimes won't pay you off when you hit your outs. They basically have to pay you off almost 50% of the time you make your hand for you to have the implied odds to draw. If you get it all in now, they either fold (great!) or they call and lose the chance to check/fold when you hit what I think is a pretty obvious flush draw. You pretty much hit the perfect card on the river in the actual hand; villain might even be able to check/fold the times that the J pairs the board on the river.

    When you call, it's obvious you have a flush draw. You'd never play JJ, J9, or 99 for a call on the turn.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    wendy weissman said

    Skinny.. I was betting small because I wasnt getting called very much.. My image was so tight that I wanted to get some value.. The 5 didnt to me seem like there was any draw he could have hit .. so with him peeling so light I bet an amount I thought I would get called with a 2 or a 9.. Also a little in the back of my mind was what I was going to do if he check raised me again.. I just didnt expect it to be so much..

    Wendy
    I think this villain has no clue that you are playing tight. Isn't he the type that is just playing his own cards? From the description he does not sound like a thinking player.

    There are a lot of draws on this board. Q10, 810, KQ, 710, 78, Q8, K10.

    Any time we do not stack him when he has Jx is very very bad.

    With this stack depth betting large on the turn captures so much value from a BIG chunk of his range.

    The fact that villain check raised two pair on a monotone board means he plays 2pair+ aggressively. How does this help us? Well it lets us know that when he calls the flop instead of check raising we can severley discount flopped two pairs and sets. That means his turn check raising range is ridiculously small. It is such an incredibly small portion of his range that I literally do not even care if I get check raised because it is pretty much never happening.

    We have to focus and target on the large portion of his range which are one paired hands and draws that are willing to call a fairly reasonable bet on the turn. By betting big we capture the most value from draws and we set ourselves to put in stacks on the river against inferior pairs.

    There is so much value to get on the turn here and even in the worse case scenario, which is rarely happening, if we bet big we actually have the equity to call off a shove.

    I think betting small here looses an absolutely incredible amount of value here.
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