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Foxwoods 2/5 100BB cap - Flop trips facing heat

JP Posts: 56Member
edited March 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain in this hand has been playing with me for the past 5 hours or so. He has been playing somewhat tighter than the average player at these games and doesn't raise preflop much at all. He seems like a relatively ABC player and a regular in this cardroom. He is probably 50 and definitely plays as a hobby but doesn't seem incompetent.

UTG+1 (loose semi-whale with $400) limps, MP ($250) limps, Hero limps button with 57s, Villain (BB with $1100) raises to $30, limpers call, Hero calls ($1500).

My range for Villain raising out of the BB is extremely tight. Likely hes raising 77+, AQ+, maybe AJ or KQ. I think I've seen him raise 1 time from blinds so far in past 5 hours.

Flop ($120) 8c5d5h

Villain (BB) checks, UTG+1 bets $30, MP calls, Hero raises to $105, Villain plays with his chips for about 30 seconds and then raises to $305, folds to Hero?

I start to play with my chips and count out the $200 extra and start shuffling chips and after 30 seconds Villain says "I will tell you that you are way behind right now". I really can't see how Villain ever has a 5 here as there are literally no 5s that he raises with preflop out of the blinds, even a hand like A5s. So basically he either has 88 and flopped a full house or is overplaying an overpair.

Is this a puke fold or what do you guys think?

Comments

  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    While I find his words disconcerting, if you take that out of the picture I am snap getting it in here all day long - 12 combos of AA/KK versus 3 combos of 88, and he may not even raise 88 pre-flop.
  • JP Posts: 56Member
    any other opinions?
  • fishcake Posts: 917Subscriber
    I have folded trips before on the flop but this is not one of those times I would do it. His sizing is a little small and it is possible he has 88, but not very likely.
  • Stonewalled Posts: 480Subscriber
    I would think his range is mostly 88 and QQ+; I wouldn't put any 5s in his range. 3 combos of 88. 18 combos of QQ+. Even if he just has AA, he has more combos than 88. I'd call, with the plan of calling down and getting it in.
  • Stonewalled Posts: 480Subscriber
    JP said:
    Villain says "I will tell you that you are way behind right now".
    Tyrith said:
    While I find his words disconcerting,
    My experience with this type of talk leads me to a different conclusion. Rarely have I seen someone say this type of thing with the nuts. Usually it's a strong hand that doesn't want to be sucked out on, and not a monster. It would make me feel really comfortable that he has an overpair.

  • ddz Posts: 148SubscriberProfessional
    There seems to be a conflict between your initial reads and your reaction after you get raised. You say that villain is raising out of blinds with 77+, AQ+. But when you get cold 3-bet by the villain, you immediately put the villain on exactly 88. If you truly believe that the villain's range for raising out of the blinds is 77+ and AQ+, then villain's play should not cause you an undue amount of concern. It is far more likely that villain has gotten "tricky" with an overpair that he is overplaying than him having exactly 88. I see older guys play AA/KK/QQ like this all the time. I would call here because we have position and then raise turn or river to get the $ in, unless you think villain will stack off here (i.e. it would be disaster for him to check-fold his KK on an A turn when he would have gotten it in on the flop). Unless you have some read that villain is so tight that he is never, ever, never, ever playing an overpair like this, you should be planning on how to get as much money as possible into the pot.
  • ZeroJJ Posts: 42Subscriber
    Given the preflop action and the fact you said you have only seen him raise from the blinds once (were you able to see his hand?), it is unlikely he has a 5. Its possible that he has 88 but unlikely. Feels alot more like KK or AA.

    The thing is what does he think you may have with you calling his pf raise What was your image? He may think you have a medium pp 99-JJ and is trying to get you off your hand. With the action and even with dialogue I would get it in here.
  • JP Posts: 56Member
    Flop ($120) 8c5d5h

    Villain (BB) checks, UTG+1 bets $30, MP calls, Hero raises to $105, Villain plays with his chips for about 30 seconds and then raises to $305, folds to Hero?

    Hero calls.

    Turn ($780) 8c5d5h 6h

    Villain bets $400, Hero raises all-in, Villain calls.

    Villain has 88 for flopped FH.

    I felt like I made a huge mistake in this hand especially calling his turn raise. The way he talked on the flop I just had a gross feeling but couldn't find a fold as I wasn't sure if he was overplaying an overpair.

    I guess based on the responses my play wasn't such as huge mistake so thanks for reassuring me in this spot.
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    Think about it this way. Villain never has 5x. The only hand you lose to is 88.

    There are 3 combos of 88 with one on the board. If you can find 3 combos of AA/KK/QQ in his range then your play is +EV since there is dead money there.

    I think he is way, way more likely to both make the speech and reraise flop with AA than 88.

    Think about it this way. He has basically the unbeatable nuts. The best you can have is a 2 outer with 99 or something. I know he's a nit but is he really going to try to get you to fold pocket 10's here becaue he doesn't wanna lose to a 2 outer?

    So while it is gross that the nit suddenly wants to get money in when you could easily have trips, I still think we can't fold.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    Yeah, I think you're being results oriented here. Something that seems to come up in a fair number of the posts here is that people struggle with the fact that sometimes you run into the top of your opponent's range. That's why they're called ranges - because people will take the same line with hands of different hand strengths. We can't always know when our opponent has the nuts.
  • eyedunno Posts: 215Subscriber
    Another thing is... When Villain flops the stone cold nuts here, why he is ever Check/Cold 3 Betting the flop with players to act in-between? I'd expect 88 to flat the $105 here and hope more action comes along...

    Don't think there is much you could do here. The action and the combo work says we're usually ahead. I also don't think moving in on the flop accomplishes much and might actually let villain get away from QQ+ so well played imo..
  • RDF Posts: 183Member
    Plug your pre flop leaks that cause you to get coolered
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