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Hero wants to bluff this river

UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
edited March 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain is a semi-thinking recreational player. Understands relative strength vs absolute strength to some degree and probably floats/bluffs more than the average recreational player

2/5
Don't remember effective stacks but it was at least 1500

Hero raises to 15 with 9d7d on the button
Villain calls in SB
BB folds

Ad Ah 6d flop
Villain checks
Hero bets 20
Villain calls

Turn Kx
Villan checks
Hero bets 40
Villain raises to 100
Hero raises to 250

He calls and checks the river

I wouldn't always 3bet a turn C/R on this kind of board, but this guy knows I might be barreling, so he could be turning something like a 6 or a pocket pair or draw into a bluff. And even if he has an A, he would be wary against this kind of bet

River Ts

Would you continue bluffing on this river? If so, then is it worth an underbluff or a large bet? If he was calling with a draw better than 9 high, I would feel silly if the hand got to showdown. And if he was hero calling with a pair, I want that to fold.

Or it's a tough spot if he actually has an A if I bet big

Comments

  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    I'm confused. Didn't you hit a flush OTT? I'm guessing the turn was not a diamond and you didn't hit?

    If the guy is a semi-thinking regular I seriously doubt he's turning trip aces into a bluff to rep a flush and bluff you off of I suppose a better ace. I don't even expect most pros to do that at 2/5.

    Unless you think the guy is going to fold like the Q or J high flush thinking you're full all you can really do is underbluff and hope he folds a draw. It would really depend on the actual cards since I think there's an error in the runout so I'm not sure what kinda draw he would have.

    IMO I probably just call turn and bomb river if the diamond comes cuz he probably won't believe you and/or can't fold trips.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    Crap, the turn was a non-diamond. I changed it to Kx in the original post

    So the final board was AA6KT with no flushes possible
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    If you're going to bluff this river, I think it should probably be a huge bet. He has far more combos of Ax than combo draws on the river (I don't think he's check-raising this turn with K x), and you want to give yourself a shot to make him fold them. This seems like a good spot for the good old overbet. Something around $1200 seems pretty sexy.
  • Stonewalled Posts: 480Subscriber
    Hero should look for a better spot. I think Villain's range is really strong here and there aren't many draws, much less draws that would continue after the turn 3-bet.

    What is Hero representing? Your range is wide from the start, with the button open-raise. Your flop bet could mean anything. When you bet turn and he raises, if you had AA/AK/KK, wouldn't you just flat? In fact, what would you raise that could hope to get a call from Villain's range? Maybe I'm missing something here, but it seems like a bad spot both to bluff the turn and even worse to bomb the river.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    Is the guy going to fold all his aces below AJ? Your line is repping AJ+ or boats...if he's semi-thinking he should realize that if you pot it, random trips are no good. There are two problems, though -

    1) If he doesn't think that much, he could be "TRIP ACES CALL LOLZ"
    2) If he really thinks about the situation, you betting pot doesn't make a ton of sense - aren't you going to drive out most of the crappy As that a hand like AJ can get value from? It seems like a super polarizing bet to either a boat or a bluff.

    So it really depends where on the leveling chart this guy is. If you don't really know, I'd be inclined to give up.

    If I was afraid about him calling the turn with a K and a flush draw, shouldn't we be raising a little larger on the turn?
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    Stonewalled said:
    When you bet turn and he raises, if you had AA/AK/KK, wouldn't you just flat?
    No, why would a good player flat when it's 300bb+? It's deep enough that I should be trying to build a pot, no?
    Tyrith said:
    Is the guy going to fold all his aces below AJ? Your line is repping AJ+ or boats...if he's semi-thinking he should realize that if you pot it, random trips are no good. There are two problems, though -

    1) If he doesn't think that much, he could be "TRIP ACES CALL LOLZ"
    2) If he really thinks about the situation, you betting pot doesn't make a ton of sense - aren't you going to drive out most of the crappy As that a hand like AJ can get value from? It seems like a super polarizing bet to either a boat or a bluff.
    He's quite a bit beyond the "I have trip aces!" level
    Yes, if I were raising the turn for value, it's pretty much AJ+. But I also bet/3bet the turn at a relatively low frequency, so it's perfectly probable that I was raising for value
  • eyedunno Posts: 215Subscriber
    Based on the player description, I agree that his turn X/R can very likely be a bluff. However, once he calls your 3Bet I doubt he has a bluff or a draw.

    Your line is really strong and why would he draw to a flush that may not even be good if he hits it? If he understands absolute versus relative hand strength you would think most bluffs/draws are folded out by your turn 3bet here.

    You are trying to move a semi-thinking recreational player off of trip Aces. IMO, that means the river bluff has to be pretty large to put villain in a tough spot where he has to lay down a hand like AT. Not sure if the risk/reward is there for this type of play.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    edited March 2014
    UntreatableFPS said:
    He's quite a bit beyond the "I have trip aces!" level
    Yes, if I were raising the turn for value, it's pretty much AJ+. But I also bet/3bet the turn at a relatively low frequency, so it's perfectly probable that I was raising for value
    You're deep enough that if he had a boat OTT, he should be raising the turn to get more money in, and from the sound of it he would realize that. In that case, I turn his turn range is capped at about AJ. [/quote]

    The more I think about it, the more our line is almost too strong to be a hero-calling situation with like A8. If you pot the river, I think he'll turn loose of everything short of a rivered boat. Yes, he will will have aces full of tens some portion of the time, and he'll have AJ, or he might get stubborn. A pot sized bluff only has to work half the time to be good, though, and he can have draws that beat us that we need to get rid of.
  • Stonewalled Posts: 480Subscriber
    UntreatableFPS said:
    Stonewalled said:
    When you bet turn and he raises, if you had AA/AK/KK, wouldn't you just flat?
    No, why would a good player flat when it's 300bb+? It's deep enough that I should be trying to build a pot, no?
    Tyrith said:
    Is the guy going to fold all his aces below AJ? Your line is repping AJ+ or boats...if he's semi-thinking he should realize that if you pot it, random trips are no good. There are two problems, though -

    1) If he doesn't think that much, he could be "TRIP ACES CALL LOLZ"
    2) If he really thinks about the situation, you betting pot doesn't make a ton of sense - aren't you going to drive out most of the crappy As that a hand like AJ can get value from? It seems like a super polarizing bet to either a boat or a bluff.
    He's quite a bit beyond the "I have trip aces!" level
    Yes, if I were raising the turn for value, it's pretty much AJ+. But I also bet/3bet the turn at a relatively low frequency, so it's perfectly probable that I was raising for value
    If you 3-bet the turn and it looks like a value hand, and if villain is at a decent level, yet he still calls your 3-bet on the turn, then why would you bluff the river?

    Let's go back to the turn. You say a good player would 3-bet the turn with AA/KK/AK, deep-stacked. Why? You'd have a lock hand against Villain's non-nut monsters and would get it in on the river anyhow. If you would 3-bet, you'd fold out a lot of naked Aces and draws that you'd otherwise get value from on the river. It's unlikely, particularly against a decent player, that a draw will call your turn 3-bet. So, your turn raise looks suspicious to begin with, and it looks like he has a value hand.
  • eyedunno Posts: 215Subscriber
    eyedunno said:
    Based on the player description, I agree that his turn X/R can very likely be a bluff. However, once he calls your 3Bet I doubt he has a bluff or a draw.

    Your line is really strong and why would he draw to a flush that may not even be good if he hits it? If he understands absolute versus relative hand strength you would think most bluffs/draws are folded out by your turn 3bet here.

    You are trying to move a semi-thinking recreational player off of trip Aces. IMO, that means the river bluff has to be pretty large to put villain in a tough spot where he has to lay down a hand like AT. Not sure if the risk/reward is there for this type of play.
    Realized the river was a T, so obviously villain is not laying down AT. I think my point is the same though, just wanted to clear up my misreading of the board. A9/A8/AJ all seem like the same hand here based on Hero's line...

  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    If a turn 3bet looks like value and would fold out naked aces, then that's exactly why I should be doing it as a bluff.
    If a turn 3bet looks suspicious, that's exactly why I should be doing it with AA/KK/AK. So I can win a big pot from worse. He's never getting it in 300BB if I don't 3bet the turn.

    So which is it? It's up to him to figure out which one it is, which is why my turn range consists of both of these types of hands.
  • eyedunno Posts: 215Subscriber
    UntreatableFPS said:
    If a turn 3bet looks like value and would fold out naked aces, then that's exactly why I should be doing it as a bluff.
    If a turn 3bet looks suspicious, that's exactly why I should be doing it with AA/KK/AK. So I can win a big pot from worse. He's never getting it in 300BB if I don't 3bet the turn.

    So which is it? It's up to him to figure out which one it is, which is why my turn range consists of both of these types of hands.
    Right... I can see where you are coming from and it makes sense. From a macro perspective though, I'd have to ask if this is the type of situation which makes up a decent % of our hourly earn in these types of games.

    Let's say you are making $40/hr long term beating this $2/$5 game. Are you prepared to potentially bluff off almost 20 hours worth of work? To get someone who isn't really a "fish" to fold trip Aces?

    I just don't think this is the fundamental way $$$ is made at these levels. Our room for error in this game is very small. If you did something similar to this once a week and never made a mistake anywhere else in your play, you are crippling your hourly and might not be a decent winner in these games at all.

    Just my humble opinion...
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    Anyway, I stopped, and he had to show first because Vegas rules are stupid (though it worked to my advantage this time, I think it should always be last aggressor regardless of what happens on the river)

    He shows AT and says "I think I got lucky" and I just mucked like I had a better A

    But if he thought his hand was likely not good and that he had to hit a T, then maybe it's still a profitable bluff spot against his range
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