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From the Vic in London - do I go for value on the river?

jossimar Posts: 7Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Hey everyone. Here is a hand from a session I played at the Victoria Casino in London, where I am based. I am grinding out £1/2 where there is a cap of £400. It probably plays like a $2/5 game in the States - from Bart's podcasts over the years it seems poor players make the same mistakes wherever they are!

I have 99 in mid-position and open for 12 (the game is playing super-loose and I have a large stack and am always getting called pre-flop by several players - my normal open is 8). I get a call from the guy to my immediate left, then the button with a micro stack goes all in for 18. Two early position callers, then me and the guy to my left also calls. The pot is about 90, 1 all-in and 4 others in the hand.

Flop is K84 with 2 spades - it gets checked through. Turn is an offsuit 7 - checked to me, I bet 25, all three live players call. River is an offsuit K and it gets checked through and I win.

I realise that I should have bet more on the turn as I am giving the flush draws direct odds to call. I think it was just a scared bet. My question is whether you should go for thin value on the river? I know that I am probably ahead, but it seems difficult to get called by worse (possibly an 8).

Cheers

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Never underestimate the ability for bad players to make horrible calls. I might have even bet the flop given you only had two players behind you. If someone calls you can reevatuate on future streets.

    When the board pairs it is much much less likely that someone has that rank of card..Furthermore, since no one on your right bet its very unlikely that any of them had a King .. Most player will lead with tp on the turn if its checked around..

    With the flush draw on the turn and it also puts out a straight draw as well a bet is mandatory. As you said your bet was way too small. with 4 players in for 18 pounds a bet of at least 40 would be something I think you can called by alot worse and draws..

    On the river when its checked to you again you can either go for thin value and bet around 60 pounds .. or if you are rather sure no one has a better pair (like limping with tens or jacks from ep and playing very passively) you can go for a rare play since all the draws missed. You can bet huge! You are betting thin but your bet itself is polarized.. You will be surprised how often you will be hero called with worse villains thinking your bricked on your draw and trying to bluff!

    I have not had the opportunity to do this often but when you can do it its just so amazing!

    Wendy
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    The river pairing the king does make it less likely that someone holds a K, but the fact that there are 5 players seeing the river makes it somewhat more likely. In small stakes games, many players won't bet with K4 (or even KT!) on the river but they will check/call. I think it is a close spot between betting or checking , but it seems unlikely your hand would be best more than 50% when called otr (in a protected pot). I like the idea of thin value , but I don't think this is the right spot.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I would't bet on the river against four guys and a protected pot, since bad players love to slowplay all the time (at least where I am playing).
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I disagree strongly on the two above posts.. Now of course if you KNOW that the two players like to slowplay thats one thing.. But the vast majority of players simply dont have a King and many will look you up light because BOTH draws missed..

    I can easily get called by worse and I will be most likely raised by a king and can easily get away from the hand..

    Wendy
  • The protected pot nature of this hand is definitely something to consider, however there is now $75 in the side pot after the turn betting round. I would bet something like $50 here and I think when called you will easily be good more than 50% of the time.

    Bart
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    A potentially useful way to think about this river situation is to ask:
    If you hypothetically had K2 in this situation, would you bet it for value?
  • Andrew Sakai said

    A potentially useful way to think about this river situation is to ask:
    If you hypothetically had K2 in this situation, would you bet it for value?
    Hand equivalency wise yes. But combinatorial wise it will make him less likely to have a K. So K2 is a much easier value bet than 99. Although 99 is still a bet.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Given the side pot (I missed that there's already 100 in there), it definitely becomes more of a call.
    However, I am a bit surprised that it appears to be such an easy decision for you guys. You have to put the other players on a range, right? If there are three players in the hand, let's say one has a flush draw, one guy hit the eight, but there's still on player left. Are theses guys calling with AQ, AJ types of hands here? Or 55?

    Where I play, people show up with all kinds of strange hands on the river, most Kx hands, QQ, JJ, TT, sets. etc....
  • jossimar Posts: 7Member
    That's very helpful. I have seen players call down with big pocket pairs all the way, but it would be so unlikely in this hand with all the draws that I should have definitely bet the river. People do call with filth!

    J
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    whatsyourplay? said

    Given the side pot (I missed that there's already 100 in there), it definitely becomes more of a call.
    However, I am a bit surprised that it appears to be such an easy decision for you guys. You have to put the other players on a range, right? If there are three players in the hand, let's say one has a flush draw, one guy hit the eight, but there's still on player left. Are theses guys calling with AQ, AJ types of hands here? Or 55?

    Where I play, people show up with all kinds of strange hands on the river, most Kx hands, QQ, JJ, TT, sets. etc....
    See my take is that with the wet board hitting the river and everyone still checking you just need to make a bet.. You are unlikely to get raised and with the wet board you are likely to get looked up much lighter..

    Last week I hit the nut straight on the turn on a 4 card straight board. On the river the backdoor flush completed.. It was checked to me and I still bet and got called by both players!.. You will get called lighter on wet boards AND most players will bet with the nuts on the river when they hit their draw..

    There are exceptions but at the table you can see if a player is a trapping type but for the vast majority of the time when Hero gets a check on the river I would bet..

    Wendy
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    wendy weissman said


    See my take is that with the wet board hitting the river and everyone still checking you just need to make a bet.. You are unlikely to get raised and with the wet board you are likely to get looked up much lighter..

    Last week I hit the nut straight on the turn on a 4 card straight board. On the river the backdoor flush completed.. It was checked to me and I still bet and got called by both players!.. You will get called lighter on wet boards AND most players will bet with the nuts on the river when they hit their draw..

    There are exceptions but at the table you can see if a player is a trapping type but for the vast majority of the time when Hero gets a check on the river I would bet..

    Wendy
    Ok, what you are saying makes perfect sense. Guess I just remember the spots where villain showed up with some slowplayed hand, but forget all the other ones where I am good. Thanks for the clarification!
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    I'd bet as low as J8 on the river.
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