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Too Nitty of a Fold?

JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
edited April 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Hollywood Park $5/$5
Short Handed 4 players

Game is breaking and we are on the last hands.

Hero red A A.

v2 Unknown but so far seems a typical TP player.
v5 Mike. He has played on LATB and was in the CLP where he played a few big hands with Harry. A TAG that has some bluffs in him. He was playing the most aggressive at the Short Handed table.

Hero. Losing. Playing TAG. Although didn't have a lot of time with these villains this day. I have a fair amount of history with Mike.

Hero 20, v2 otb and v5 BB calls. Pot $60

Flop Q J 9

v5 checks, Hero checks, v2 $60, v5 calls, Hero folds.



My thoughts during play.

On the flop this is just about the worst board I could get for two red aces. I will never get three streets of value and most likely will not get two. I decide to check because if I bet and v2 calls, then Mike can raise a lot of his range putting me in a tough spot. I thought if v2 missed then I get though the flop and can play the turn for a street of value against weaker ranges. Or I can call if Mike leads out and get two streets of value from him.

When v2 bombs the flop, I think he is protecting a hand. And while I doubt I am behind his range, I am not in great shape either. When Mike flats, I doubt he is also super strong. While I might be winning, I don't think I am ahead of both ranges combined.

I thought the best case I could have is be like 40% in the hand. And even if I was 50% against the two of them, half the turn cards in the deck might make me fold. So I just folded the hand.

Is this too Nitty?

Comments

  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    Yeah, I think so, just a little. You're getting 3:1 immediate odds. Mike is OOP, so there's a limit as to how screwy he can get on the turn. It's a four handed game, which means everyone's ranges should be wider. You have outs against two pair, which is going to make up a lot of V2's protection range, since he would likely 3-bet QQ or JJ. His betting range could definitely include AQ/KQ, maybe even QT.

    Their ranges are just too wide for me to say that this is a flop fold. OTT V5 is going to check, we check, and we can see what V2 does and go from there. You still have the best hand here a decent chunk of the time.
  • electricsheep Posts: 169Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    I would definitely bet this flop. Unless your history with Mike is such that he will think your range is capped by betting the flop, then I wouldn't worry about getting bluff raised by most of his range.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    B/f > x/c > x/f

    We have an overpair. Don't see how we can soul read a flat call or a bet into 2 checks as 2 pair+. Even if we happen to be up against 2 pair, we can hit 5 outs or hit a runner runner pair to outdraw them.

  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    edited April 2014
    JCW said:
    On the flop this is just about the worst board I could get for two red aces.
    this is flawed logic IMO, AA is still a good hand

    I mean it wouldn't make sense to say we can't x/f AQ because this is an above average flop for AQ
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Weird to say, but isn't AQ slightly better than AA cuz we don't block any 2 pair combos with AA.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    Definitely not. Thats just a PPT question , AA is better

    You beat AQ and dont block KQ for example
  • daniel9861 Posts: 207Subscriber
    I think 3 ways and with position on the one opponent capable of putting us in a tough spot b/f is better than checking but if you feel like v5 would c/r a wide enough range that would make us feel indifferent to calling or folding then checking is ok. Also if v5 will fire 100% of his air on a blank if flop checks through then checking might be better than b/f to get value from his air.

    As played once TP pots flop and v5 calls I think it's a fold mostly because we're not doing well against TP's range and we'll have bad relative position where we're forced to check almost all turns to him.
  • PokerIsFrustrating Posts: 657Member
    Did I miss stack depth here? I'm assuming you're pretty deep.

    I'd still bet because the TP can call with a ton of hands - there are a lot of pair + straight draws, flush draws etc that will call you.

    I don't know this guy Mike, but if he has a hand like 55 he's probably not going to make a play at this board with no equity just because you could have easily smashed something.
  • floater Posts: 65Subscriber
    You're not JCW..
    Where is JCW and what have you done to him?
    (based watching your play on latb)
    nitty for me...too nitty for your play
  • SimonRudin Posts: 23Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    If the guys you are playing are bad / straightforward then just bet-fold this hand to death all 3 streets.

    If you think somebody is good enough to apply pressure to you then just build a balanced range something like 70% of your pre range on flop with 2-1 bluff / value, then 70% of flop range again with 1-1 bluff / value and and finally 70% of turn range on river with 1-2 bluff / value. Whether red AA goes into the flop betting range is up to you - nothing wrong with putting it into a check-call range but you will have to construct balanced check-calling ranges for all 3 streets, too.

    This is live poker though, at a 5-5 game, so I seriously doubt these guys are going to pressure you with anything worse than 2-pair+ / big combo draw which means your life is super easy - just bet-fold.
  • JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    floater said:
    You're not JCW..
    Where is JCW and what have you done to him?
    (based watching your play on latb)
    nitty for me...too nitty for your play
    I made the same play at LATB one night. I feel there are board where if there is a lot of action then I am just crushed.
  • JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    Well the turn was the 8

    Mike checked, v2 bet and Mike raised. The guy tanked and folded.

    I asked Mike later and he said he had K Q so I folded the best hand.

    But like I thought, if I was in the hand and he made this move I would be folding. I just thought this would be a board that would be very, very hard to get to show down with my hand.
  • grindbler Posts: 131Member
    edited April 2014
    stack sizes? impossible to say w/out posting effective stack sizes
  • JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
    sorry $600 for me and Mike
    v5 $450
  • floater Posts: 65Subscriber
    JCW: my comment was not an knock on you at all, so I apologize if any was taken.
    I enjoy LATB and enjoy and admire your play.
    Just surprised about the play at that moment, although you correctly saw that the V2 was
    going to push it and that would have proven difficult.
  • JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
    I took no offense.

    It was a hand that I felt that I most likely made a small error. I'm not giving too much up there.

    I was just listening to an old Bart podcast with LeatherAss. It made me think of this hand. They were talking about people playing hands to avoid tough decision later. I think in this hand I am guilty of leak. However, in general, I do not have that problem.
  • floater Posts: 65Subscriber
    Agreed.
    You are not giving up much.
    I have noticed there are times when I'm not willing to fight for a pot, even when I think I have the better hand. I'm trying to track that, so I don't get involved in hands before that, although there are many factors. In fact, some of those issues probably overlap Bart's CBet Matrix.
    Look forward to seeing you on LATB.
  • daniel9861 Posts: 207Subscriber
    I don't think checking is all that bad really if our opponent will turn hands like KQ with K of spades into a bluff since we're pretty much forced to fold to a c/r. It also strengthens our checking range in similar spots and doesn't allow Mike to correctly vbet any Qx for two streets or fire air profitably when flop checks through. If both opponents were straightforward and only raise with big draws or 2p+ I would agree that it's a clear b/f but with an aggressive competent opponent in the pot who we will often play against I think it's important to mix it up with hands like this and not always take the same line so they can't play turns and rivers perfectly when we have worse hands such as Jx or QT.
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