Hollywood Park $5/$5
Short Handed 4 players
Game is breaking and we are on the last hands.
Hero red A♥ A♦.
v2 Unknown but so far seems a typical TP player.
v5 Mike. He has played on LATB and was in the CLP where he played a few big hands with Harry. A TAG that has some bluffs in him. He was playing the most aggressive at the Short Handed table.
Hero. Losing. Playing TAG. Although didn't have a lot of time with these villains this day. I have a fair amount of history with Mike.
Hero 20, v2 otb and v5 BB calls. Pot $60
Flop Q♠ J♣ 9♠
v5 checks, Hero checks, v2 $60, v5 calls, Hero folds.
My thoughts during play.
On the flop this is just about the worst board I could get for two red aces. I will never get three streets of value and most likely will not get two. I decide to check because if I bet and v2 calls, then Mike can raise a lot of his range putting me in a tough spot. I thought if v2 missed then I get though the flop and can play the turn for a street of value against weaker ranges. Or I can call if Mike leads out and get two streets of value from him.
When v2 bombs the flop, I think he is protecting a hand. And while I doubt I am behind his range, I am not in great shape either. When Mike flats, I doubt he is also super strong. While I might be winning, I don't think I am ahead of both ranges combined.
I thought the best case I could have is be like 40% in the hand. And even if I was 50% against the two of them, half the turn cards in the deck might make me fold. So I just folded the hand.
Is this too Nitty?