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This river is never anything but a shove, right?

UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
edited April 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Borgata 2/5 blind vs. blind ~$900 effective
Villain is BB and I'm SB. I don't think he's tilted that I didn't want to chop in a time game, but who knows?

Hero raises to 15 with 4d3d
Villain calls

Flop 9c2s3h
Hero bets 25
Villain calls

Turn 4c
Hero bets 55
Villain calls

River 4s
Hero bets 200
Villain raises to 400 and has about 400 left so we assume he's not raise folding a value hand
I was getting kind of a sick feeling here that he could have been slowplaying 99 and almost just called, but I also thought that there were more combos of full houses that we beat than lose to. So if he's raising with all full houses and incapable of folding them to a river 3bet, this is still a shove? Or is it a call because of the fact that we bet so big on the river that he might just call with a small full house?

Comments

  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    Yes, ship. He has three combos of 99, three combos of 22, and a combo of 33, and he'd probably play them all the same way. I also feel like he has a decent chunk of A4/A5/54 here, and I think the aggressive action theorem comes into play here. Your hand looks like it could easily be an overpair, at least in the eyes of most people.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    Yeah, I think shoving is right. It's just pretty thin since there are 4 reasonable full house combos we beat and 3 we don't.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    I think we have to raise due to the possibility that he is value raising a straight or trips. Plus as said above, there are several boats that we beat: 42, 33, 22, and we can also have the rare chop hand as well.
    If u lose to 99 or 94, that's what u get for raising with 43. :)
    by 1Ssull33
  • khalwatkhalwat Posts: 997Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    Tyrith said:
    Yes, ship. He has three combos of 99, three combos of 22, and a combo of 33, and he'd probably play them all the same way. I also feel like he has a decent chunk of A4/A5/54 here, and I think the aggressive action theorem comes into play here. Your hand looks like it could easily be an overpair, at least in the eyes of most people.
    This. It's also blind vs. blind. Given the way the hand played out, I think it's an easy ship.

    As people have noted, you're losing to 99, and *maybe* 94, but you have blockers to that, and not all villains are defending with 94 anyway. I'd also expect, blind vs blind, that a competent opponent is going to 3-bet 99 for value.

    BvB, he may even be "slow playing" a straight, and might be raising for value a hand like A4o, etc.

    Shove. I think the times you get looked up by worse in this situation outweigh the times you're beat by a large enough margin to make it very profitable to do so, regardless of the outcome.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    I had one of those sick feelings and almost just called, but I thought math mandated a shove

    And he had 99 which is what my sick feeling thought

    At what point do you let this type of "sick feeling" trump math?
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    Holy nit! Shove
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    I think the closer the spot, the easier it is to let the "sick feeling" trump things. If he seems like the type who might play a straight this way *and* call with it, then you are missing too much value. If he only calls with 99, 33, 22 then you are only ahead by one combo and are not giving up too much by just calling. It starts getting harder to not shove if you think he has 42o/4 2.
  • khalwatkhalwat Posts: 997Subscriber
    UntreatableFPS said:
    I had one of those sick feelings and almost just called, but I thought math mandated a shove

    And he had 99 which is what my sick feeling thought

    At what point do you let this type of "sick feeling" trump math?
    That depends on the villain entirely. I do know some people I've played with for a long time that would make me just call, or even fold in this spot. But that's specific knowledge of their very tight game.

    If it's an unknown or largely unknown... I think you played it fine, and just ran into the top part of his range. At most of the games I play in, and I assume it's the same with you, villain can—and often does—show up with worse given the blind vs. blind dynamic, and the particular board run-out.

    You got coolered.

    As for the sick feeling, if you just called in that spot every time, think of how much value you'll be leaving on the table over the long haul. That'll surely make you feel sick.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I don't think he would raise with a straight or a 4 because of the fact that I bet 200 and he's an old guy.
    But the problem was, there are as many combos of 22 as there are 99 in his range and possibly some other full houses, so I thought it was still mathematically a shove.
  • khalwatkhalwat Posts: 997Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    @UntreatableFPS This is the first you've mentioned that he's an old guy... pretty relevant, imo, any reads on his actual play, or is he basically an unknown? Player tendencies and past history are pretty important in spots like this.

    In a way, I view this the same as I view Wendy's hand. But in this case, I think he's never bluffing, it's just figuring out how often he shows up with worse. BvB, that board run-out... I'd have to have a read that he's pretty nitty to change my action here.
  • electricsheep Posts: 169Subscriber
    For the sake of argument: If you were in your A game during that session, there are times when you have to trust your gut feelings/ intuition.

    In MGP2, Tendler says that when playing "in the zone (or a very high level)", you can get those gut feelings because you are picking up on incredibly subtle patterns from previous experiences which lead you to that conclusion.

    With that said however, I personally would have shoved in your spot too and dismissed it as a cooler because it is the rational, logical and optimal thing to do.

  • Defacist Posts: 131Member
    Nitty old guys just never raise the river without the nuts or near-nuts. That said, there are a few old guys who defy that expectation, and it sounds like you didn't know a lot about this guy. You can't kick yourself over this hand.
  • multiversemultiverse Posts: 69Member
    Math> gut feelings
    by 1Ssull33
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    your gut feelings are going to be wrong more than the math in most spots. just think of all the times you've had that sick feeling and you ended up being good.
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