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Near Nutzo Deep $5-10

BartBart Posts: 5,897AdministratorLeadPro
edited April 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Since some of you are up early (I am assuming on the east coast) I'll throw another one out at you from the same session. Effective stacks $4000 $5-10 Commerce. Villain 50ish asian guy whom I doubled up through earlier with 6c 4c on a Jc 9c 6s board when a nitty lady opened from MP1 and I flatted from Bttn $2k eff. He called from BB. He led $120 into $150 4 way on flop--she called--I made it $520 and he made it $1500. We got it in--board ran out 2s kh and I won vs 8c 5c.

Weak-tight reg lurkers snickered as I dragged in the pot cause I overheard them say that "he was one of the tightest guys that they had ever seen."

He opens UTG+1 to $40. 3 field callers in position. I call in BB with 2s 2c.

FLOP As Ah 2d. I check he flinches and checks and it gets checked through. Turn Jc. I bet $100. He makes it $300. I make it $800. He makes it $1700.

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Comments

  • Defacist Posts: 131Member
    edited April 2014
    OK, I'm new here and I'm not super comfortable doing this, especially when it's Bart's hand, but I'll take a stab at it and see if my thinking gets torn apart - will be a good learning experience.

    I think we're good against most of his range here and I'd like to get all the money in if I can. Based on your description of this guy and the action of the previous hand, he's pretty LAGgy and his UTG opening range is going to be wider than most. I think he'll play the turn the same with any ace as he would play it with AA, JJ or AJ. Of course if he's really laggy and loves suited aces, I guess his range could also include a suited A2. But regardless, I think we're good most of the time here.

    The pot is, what, $2,400? (I'm assuming the preflop callers didn't participate in any of this turn action.) He's got less than $2,300 behind. I guess the only question is whether your shove gets him to fold some hands that you beat. But I don't think he's folding anything other than a bluff, and if he raised-fourbet the the turn with a bluff I would be very surprised; it be would be like seeing Sasquatch. So I'm shoving here.
  • daniel9861 Posts: 207Subscriber
    I think it's probably a fold since most players will just flat the turn 3bet with AK/AQ/AT, especially this deep, and if he is overplaying those hands with a 4bet he's most likely going to barrel river as well which means I don't think this is a good spot to call and evaluate river so the decision on whether or not to get to showdown should be made now. With 75% of AK/AQ/AT combos discounted it's close to break even so does he 4bet those hands more than 25% of the time? I doubt it.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    May I ask why you just didnt bet the flop? If he has an ace I doubt he is folding and since you have the worst underfull you protect against a random 2 outer for a bigger fullhouse?

    I have seen laggy players bet trips and I have seen laggy players check behind.. He might also try to steal the pot later as well...

    This is tough because he isnt a straightforward player. I might have just called his raise on the turn if I thought he had some bluffs in his range like KQ KT etc that I have him drawing dead. I am more conservative that way ..

    I dunno If you think he is slowplaying and never is folding an ace then I guess ship it. Otherwise what worse hand is calling you?

    ww
  • Defacist Posts: 131Member
    daniel9861 said:
    I think it's probably a fold since most players will just flat the turn 3bet with AK/AQ/AT, especially this deep, and if he is overplaying those hands with a 4bet he's most likely going to barrel river as well which means I don't think this is a good spot to call and evaluate river so the decision on whether or not to get to showdown should be made now. With 75% of AK/AQ/AT combos discounted it's close to break even so does he 4bet those hands more than 25% of the time? I doubt it.
    You make some good points. I guess I'm thinking he's aggressive enough to fourbet any ace based on a couple things: stereotype (older Asian guy) and the fact that he was aggressive with the combo draw on the previous hand and may be tilty due to losing that hand.

  • DavidTuchman Posts: 786Pro
    Christ on a cracker....man, you're such a luckbox....flop a straight with 45, your 64cc holds up and now this???

    hate spots like this because he should always have AJ, JJ or even AA ... but we all know that some players at this level can easily overplay AK or AQ in this spot.

    Very easy to play against players when we can discount "overplayed value hands" ... Does this guy think AK is the stones?

    to me, this is a very villain dependent spot.
    by 1khalwat
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,838Subscriber
    Just from tilt factor and r image with the 64cc hand doesn't this lean us towards a call here?
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    Was the flinch a strong flinch or a weak flinch? If strong, it seems like like his range should be something like AT+, AA. If weak, his turn 2bet-4bet range is total air (very unlikely) or JJ specifically. Funnily enough, I think we are doing better against his "strong" flinch range than his "weak" flinch range.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    Yeah , I was thinking when I read the OP , that we should be beat based on the turn action. However , the 64cc vs 85cc hand and hero's resulting image needs to be factored in here. If the villain is not a scared money player (which it appears he is not), it is possible that he is value raising worse.

    However , with his turn 4bet sizing (small and valuey) and the sheer size of the $$ he's putting into the pot, I think it's less likely we have the best hand here. And when we don't have the best hand , it really sucks to be putting in 400 BBs with 0% or 2% equity.

    Maybe I've been playing too much Omaha , but I'm leaning towards fold. Ugh. Wow. Folding a boat in holdem?? What kind of a nit am I?
  • khalwatkhalwat Posts: 997Subscriber
    Bart confirmed luckbox.
  • daniel9861 Posts: 207Subscriber
    Honestly it's probably really close between calling and calling most rivers and folding now so I don't think it's a big mistake to go one way or the other.
  • grindbler Posts: 131Member
    edited April 2014
    methinks that AJ makes up a tiny tiny part of his range, as people tend to get tricky/trappy with that hand here, and there are 2 combos of A2. there are heaps of AX combos, and a few spazzes in his range too, considering your image, and he's an unknown player. We can't give him auto-credit for solid fundamentals, and he shows up w/ any Ace very easily, and could be in 'play back at aggressive player with a non-sense play' mode.
    considering the table-history you shared, I would call off and try to fade the river on your canoe?

    also: is there a bad-beat jackpot?? (kidding)
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    DavidTuchman said:
    Christ on a cracker....man, you're such a luckbox....flop a straight with 45
    after 3-betting pre!!!

    His min 4 bet is strongest play possible. Seems like you're out-combo'd to me.

    You beat: 8 combos of AK, 8 combos of AQ. Let's say he plays half the combos of AK this way and 2 AQ combos this way. That's 6 total.

    You're beat by: 3 combos of JJ, 6 combos of AJ, one combo of AA. Just because he won't he won't play these hands this way EVERY time, let's take out one combo. Leaves 9.

    Is this ranging off? I dunno, seems reasonable to me. Puke fold




  • Arenzano Posts: 1,399Subscriber
    I tend to think you're smoked here. He more than likely has JJ, or AJ, we can only hope we are up against three aces. He 3x your initial bet, then when you 3bet, he more or less min raises that bet...

    I don't think he is doing that with just trips.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    If those ranges are accurate, you are getting a much bigger price than you need from the pot. It becomes more sketchy if he either has fewer overplays or you are committing to calling a river shove.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    grindbler said:
    methinks that AJ makes up a tiny tiny part of his range, as people tend to get tricky/trappy with that hand here, and there are 2 combos of A2. there are heaps of AX combos,
    I don't think we can say he's playing all random ax this way pre from utg1 with any kind of frequency. And def not with that min turn 4 bet
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    OminousCow said:
    If those ranges are accurate, you are getting a much bigger price than you need from the pot. It becomes more sketchy if he either has fewer overplays or you are committing to calling a river shove.
    Guess if he shuts down with AK and AQ on river then sure you can call
  • Defacist Posts: 131Member
    So judging from most of the responses, my idea of a turn shove is a bit of a spew. But assuming we just call, what's our plan on the river?
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    5-10 at commerce you cannot fold, like in limon's story you either have the best the hand, or your BBJ equity vs a range of AA/AJ/JJ (1 combo of losing share, 6 combos of winning share, 3 combos of nothing) is probably more than your remaining stack. Although he may be more inclined to play JJ than AA/AJ like this so maybe not, hmmmmm...

    so basically your options are either to 5-bet turn, or call and lead like 95% of rivers besides an Ace, and we can consider check/hero folding a K or Q. I think raising turn is most likely to get called by trip aces.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,897AdministratorLeadPro
    edited April 2014
    I actually jammed turn all-in and did it pretty quickly. I am a little surprised by the amount of people who say call turn. I can only think of that as a viable line if I am calling turn with the intention of check folding the river (95% of players won't bet unless their full when the pot gets this big last to act).

    IF I shove back he is getting pot odds of around $5900 for $2300--I just don't see anyone ever 5 bet raise fold with a hand like AK. I will say that my read on his "flinch" on the flop was that he had an ace--almost so much so that a highly discounted JJ. If I highly discount JJ and think that AA is basically impossible (guys just wont play it this way) then I thought it was a fist pump get it in.

    Also BBJs are not all equal. quad 2s vs quad aces jackpot is a super during qualifying hours (could be worth as much as $50K--50% of 100K) and quad deuces vs AJ could be worth as little as $2000 (20% of $10K)

    He showed up with AJ.

    Bart
  • daniel9861 Posts: 207Subscriber
    I think a better line is to flat and jam safe rivers since we don't have enough equity on the turn to jam for value unless we include all AK and some AQ in his range.
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