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Thin Value?

GusFritschie Posts: 102Subscriber
edited April 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$1/$2 MD Live effective stacks are about $300.

I raise 1 limper UTG+1 to $15 with J J 4 callers including the BB, UTG, and CO. Pot=$60

Flop is 8 7 3

Checks to me and I bet $40, the CO and the BB call. Pot=$180

Turn brings the 8 checks to me and I check and the CO also checks.

River brings the Q for a final board of 8 7 3 8 Q

The BB checks and action is on me, do we check hoping CO checks and we get to showdown or can we get value from a pair or 10's 9's or a 7?

Comments

  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,827Subscriber
    Bet 70-80
  • SimonRudin Posts: 23Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    Bet-Fold small, something like 60-75. No way somebody is still checking trips. Once in a while you will run into some Qx of hearts but that's fine - other than that this really is not very thin at all IMO.
  • napncrash Posts: 177Subscriber
    Before we discuss the river; BET THAT TURN!!! There are a million hands that will still call your bet... tons of draws, tons and tons. If they raise, you have a pretty simple bet/fold.

    Regarding the river bet - it seems that we're in a situation where most of the hands that would have called the turn now will just fold if you bet. Is there some value to get here? I'm not feeling it.

    I think this extra-shows how the turn was your value street on this hand... with the river essentially bricking out, now all of those hands that would have called a turn bet have nothing left to call for. womp womp!! :)
    by 1Ssull33
  • GusFritschie Posts: 102Subscriber
    Before we discuss the river; BET THAT TURN!!!
    I agree I meant to ask for advice on the turn in my post. That was a mistake, as played I bet $55 on the river, CO thought for a while and called BB folded. My hand is good. So I was happy that I at least bet the river after making a mistake on the turn.

    Thanks for the feedback.
  • SimonRudin Posts: 23Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    Betting the turn is likely +EV but not necessarily most +EV. If the hand was HU on the turn I would lean towards just betting also.

    But it being 3-ways is important. It should theoretically strengthen everybody's ranges (whether they are thinking about them or not). What that means in practice is that most draws will fold now that the board has paired - especially for the guy in between. There is also some part of their combined range that does have trip 8s now and they will let you know about it at some point before you get to bet the river.

    If you are going to bet the turn it will have to be just as small as the river bet and it will be harder to get called due to the threat of another river bet.

    IMO there is one small bet to be made in this hand once we get to the turn and w/out doing a massive EV calc the river seems like a better place for it.
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