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2/5 AQ bluff

DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
edited April 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain is a mid 20's tag that isn't from the area but has played a couple days at this casino. He carries himself like a pretty good player and is capable if hand reading. Of note, villain has both a limping & raising range. I have not seen him limp/3b. Typically, he has not gotten to showdown when he limped, but I'd suspect low pocket pairs, suited connectors, and maybe some broadways that he doesn't feel comfortable raising up front.

Hero is mid 20's tag that flirts with lag at times. Against V, he saw me 3 bet his btn ISO raise with KJo and get stacks in with a double gutter on the flop (I cbet, he mini raised, I tanked and 3 b jammed on T97ss), so he might see me as spewy at times. After the hand I told him that he wasn't supposed to have a set there & we laughed about it (I sucked out on him). Early on, some drunk guy came up to him and said "watch out for this guy, he's good. He's a pro" referring to me. Don't know how that changes things. In the time between my KJ hand, I haven't made any spewy plays and was pretty snug.

2/5 Effective stacks are $1000
V limps utg+1. Folds to H. H raises to $20 A Q in CO. Folds to V. V calls.

J T 4 (pot $45)
Check, check

Turn 4 (pot $45)
V bets $40, H calls

River T (pot $125)
V bets $85, hero raises to $315

So my question, how often should we be bluffing here? How often should we be bluff catching? Which hands in our range go into which range? Does any of this theory change with the history, or can this spot be fine to have a bluffing range on since raising the river on this type of board is so different from semi bluffing the flop with the KJ hand?

Comments

  • daniel9861 Posts: 207Subscriber
    First of all, your sizing is way too large and unnecessary. A raise to $240 will accomplish the same thing while risking a lot less. Second of all, we need to have a read that he is good enough to vbet Jx or mid pocket pairs since those are the hands we're trying to fold out with a raise, otherwise his range will be polarized to missed draws, air, and Tx and we should just call against that range.
  • electricsheep Posts: 169Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    I don't think we should be bluff catching often in this spot. Despite playing snug in the past few hands, his perception of your spewyness shouldn't really change much so he's probably gonna be value betting you thin here a ton.

    If we are against a solid player who can make thin value bets, then I think he is bet-folding a lot on the river because his value range will contain more medium strength hands.

    His bluff catching frequency will depend largely on whether he can think on the 3rd level and perceive that you think his range will be usually capped to jx here.

    Otherwise, I think he folds a lot in this spot. The only obvious bluffs in our range are 78 and AQ and I think we can credibly rep a 10 given our aggressive image and the turn action.

    I would agree though that the raise size should be smaller because it's a spot where he's either absolutely calling/raising with 10x or absolutely folding jx.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    If we don't know he makes thin value bets on the end, I think his river bet is pretty polarizing to hands that beat a single pair. For a relatively straightforward recreational player, I wouldn't expect him to try to go for two streets with KJ/QJ, especially when the board double pairs - he should be scared.

    If he's a better player, I guess he can bet thinly here, representing a busted draw. Doesn't our check back flop, call turn range include a lot of single-pair T hands, though? And isn't a player that is going to bet a J twice going to bet a T once on the turn?

    On the whole, I think his range is just too strong to go for this play. The raise size makes this especially true - he has to fold 60% of the time to make this profitable. Even if you just make it 255, he has to fold 55% of the time...I don't think you get there.
    by 1CageyB
  • electricsheep Posts: 169Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    Do you think hands like 9's or 8's could be in our turn calling range?
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    What are you bluff targets here? Do you think he will view 99 as being different from AJ? Are you trying to represent a particular hand? Do you think he thinks you would check back AT on the flop?
  • Lownstarr Posts: 268Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    1. Why are you getting involved with trying to outplay a decent player? Pick your spots better.

    2. You said he can hand read? What do people often put you on when you raise pf, then check a wet flop? AK. Why are you trying to bluff him off his hand on the river when nothing's happened to make him think you might have something stronger?

    3. You're against 1 player in position with deep stacks. Yes, that's a wet-ish flop, but why not fire a c-bet if you don't think your image is shot? If you had, I think this hand plays a lot easier for you.
  • fishcake Posts: 954Subscriber
    Fold turn. Don't like the bluff on the river you're getting called not repping much.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    Warning tl;dr

    I have sat down and have done some gto math for fun to see how this works out.

    I have my ISO range here as AA-55, AK-AJo, KQo, KJo, AK-A2s, KQ-K9s, QJs, QTs, JTs, J9s, T9s, T8s, 98s, 97s, 87s, 86s, 76s, 54s. It's a little bit wide, but with him limping in and strongly discounting his strong hands, I like having a lot of big cards and suited cards with good barreling equity.

    On this flop, I have a cbetting range as follows (with combos in parenthesis):
    Value: AA (6), KK (6), QQ (6), JJ (3), TT (3), JTs (3), AJ (12). Total 39
    Flush draws/oesd/gutters/backdoor FD: AKdd, AQdd, A9dd, A8dd, A3dd, A2dd (6 nfd), KQ (16), 98s (4), 97s (4), K9s (4), 87s (4), 86 dd/cc (2), 76dd/cc (2), AKcc, AQcc, A9-A2cc (9 bd nfd), 54dd, other AK/AQ (28). Total draws/bluffs= 80 combos

    Notice I put AQ in the flop betting range. When I was trying to build a range of bluffs, I think the gutter and ace high work really well to put in our one barrel range. My other choices to bluff with don't make much sense and I'll have plenty of other hands to defend with when I check. I guess I misunderstood this in the moment and wanted a good hand to float the turn with if he bet.

    Checking range:
    Jx (18): KJ (12), QJs (3), J9s (3)
    Tx (15): ATs (3), KTs (3), QTs (3), T9s (3), T8s (3)
    4x (4): 54s (3, no FD), A4dd
    Flush draws: A7dd-A5dd (3)
    Underpairs: 99-55 (30)
    Trash (18): 86hh/ss (2), 76hh/ss (2), A9-A2hh/ss (14)

    In my checking range, I decided to put in a lot of combos of Jx and Tx. Our betting range is so strong and if we put in many Jx, I think we have a hard time balancing our checking range or we have to cbet close to 100% on the flop (which may be an okay strategy actually if we don't think the villain will c/r often with a good range).

    On the turn:
    Calling range: Tx (15), Jx (18), 54ss(1), A7-A4dd (4), 99 (6). Total 44

    That is half our combos, which is good since he bet the pot. We could defend more. I think his betting range is probably heavy in Jx, Tx, straight draws, flush draws, and maybe even a pocket pair for protection.

    On the river:
    Note, we now only have 10 combos of Tx and a total of 39 combos.
    Raising range: Tx (10), 99 (6)
    Calling range: 54ss (1), A4dd (2), J9hh, J9cc, QJs (3)

    Now, with my raise sizing on the river to $315, we are offering him about 1.7:1. With those odds, we need 6 bluffs for every 10 value hands to remain balanced. I like choosing 99 so we can block his T9s combos. Also, 99 doesn't block Jx combos, which we are making him indifferent to calling with.

    To explain my calling range, we need to defend 40% to make him indifferent to bluffing with that bet size. With our raising range of Tx and 99 bluffs, we only need 5 more combos. KJ would tie if he happened to value bet KJ so that would be a reasonable call too. But J9 blocks his T9s combos when we choose the combos of hearts and clubs. And QJs will block QTs. I found it easier to choose those combos than trying to randomizing 5 combos of KJ to call.

    So, this is all gto type of theory, but how do I apply it to this hand and live 2/5 games? I'd only make these plays against someone that is good enough for it to matter. In my real hand, I chose an exploitable line for the following reasons:
    -He bet pot on the turn, which makes Jx more likely than Tx. And it could also be indicative of a draw.
    -OTR, I thought he would be likely to value bet thinly with Jx since all the draws missed
    -Based on my line, I should have a lot of Tx after not cbetting and hardly any draws that missed
    -He can never have JJ or TT based on pf action
    -he may expect me to not have any Jx because I didn't cbet since a lot of people cbet those hands 100%

    However, I think I made a big mistake by not just betting the flop with AQ and when I do decide to check it, I don't think I should be raising the river because of how crazy wide I'd be raising because of the AQ combos vs Tx. Also, I have more than enough combos to defend with anyway to where it's just not necessary. When I was working out how often I should mathematically bluff raise, 99 makes so much better sense than AQ because of the blockers. If my bet sizing read was confirmed by an earlier hand instead of just a population based read, I'd like it better and would be fine with being massively unbalanced and put him in a tough spot.

    Any thoughts on this analysis? I love getting into theory stuff like this and trying to either improve my game or poke holes in the logic when appropriate when applying it to in game use.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    Lownstarr said:
    1. Why are you getting involved with trying to outplay a decent player? Pick your spots better.

    2. You said he can hand read? What do people often put you on when you raise pf, then check a wet flop? AK. Why are you trying to bluff him off his hand on the river when nothing's happened to make him think you might have something stronger?

    3. You're against 1 player in position with deep stacks. Yes, that's a wet-ish flop, but why not fire a c-bet if you don't think your image is shot? If you had, I think this hand plays a lot easier for you.
    1.) you should really try to win money whenever you play a hand. If you think you need to bluff or value bet thinly, then do it. Conceding a pot because they aren't a fish isn't really a viable strategy. At the time, I thought it was profitable. After working through things, I agree it wasn't the best line at all.

    2) I would guess that he'd put me on some weak jacks, Tx, low pocket pairs, air. Very rarely a draw. Maybe occasionally AK or AQ. But he was good enough to put me on a range and not just AK. He was a mid 20's tag, not a 60 year old man drinking coffee talking about everyone having AK.

    3) I agree. If you read the book of a post that I just made before this one, you can see me bad talk my play a little bit
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    OminousCow said:
    What are you bluff targets here? Do you think he will view 99 as being different from AJ? Are you trying to represent a particular hand? Do you think he thinks you would check back AT on the flop?
    I'm really repping Tx or a bluff. My thoughts are mostly posted above in my tl;dr post, but I thought he would value bet Jx and that my line looks like Tx. And although a lot of draws missed, it's hard to have any when I don't bet the flop.
  • Lownstarr Posts: 268Subscriber
    DrGambol said:
    Lownstarr said:
    1. Why are you getting involved with trying to outplay a decent player? Pick your spots better.

    2. You said he can hand read? What do people often put you on when you raise pf, then check a wet flop? AK. Why are you trying to bluff him off his hand on the river when nothing's happened to make him think you might have something stronger?

    3. You're against 1 player in position with deep stacks. Yes, that's a wet-ish flop, but why not fire a c-bet if you don't think your image is shot? If you had, I think this hand plays a lot easier for you.
    1.) you should really try to win money whenever you play a hand. If you think you need to bluff or value bet thinly, then do it. Conceding a pot because they aren't a fish isn't really a viable strategy. At the time, I thought it was profitable. After working through things, I agree it wasn't the best line at all.

    2) I would guess that he'd put me on some weak jacks, Tx, low pocket pairs, air. Very rarely a draw. Maybe occasionally AK or AQ. But he was good enough to put me on a range and not just AK. He was a mid 20's tag, not a 60 year old man drinking coffee talking about everyone having AK.

    3) I agree. If you read the book of a post that I just made before this one, you can see me bad talk my play a little bit
    On 1, sure try and make money whenever you play a hand...but I urge you to think more strategically about where you invest your limited money, bluff capital and mental/emotional energy. Rather than try to squeeze thin value out of good opponents, why not save your resources for the fish? Do you think Warren Buffet invests in every slightly, potentially +EV spot? He's said time and time again no. He tries to give himself as big a "margin of error" as possible whenever he commits resources. I urge you to do the same.

    Also, in your GTO post, you talk about trying to balance your ranges. You don't need to balance at 2/5. The fish aren't that capable.

    I think both the points I make here have been said time and time again in the podcasts and videos on this site. Listening and watching convinced me. Hopefully they'll do the same for you. My winrate has definitely benefitted.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    Lownstarr said:
    Also, in your GTO post, you talk about trying to balance your ranges. You don't need to balance at 2/5. The fish aren't that capable.
    If you don't think you need to balance here, what exploitative line are you taking on the river? Is the villain betting a hand that he will fold too often or too little?
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    OminousCow said:
    Lownstarr said:
    Also, in your GTO post, you talk about trying to balance your ranges. You don't need to balance at 2/5. The fish aren't that capable.
    If you don't think you need to balance here, what exploitative line are you taking on the river? Is the villain betting a hand that he will fold too often or too little?
    I'm not playing against a fish in this hand. He was a good player, although I don't know how good.

    But going along what ominous cow is saying, which hands would you play differently on the flop or turn and why?

  • Lownstarr Posts: 268Subscriber
    I think you missed my point on balancing. If you're getting yourself in situations where you need to be thinking about balancing, change tables or casinos. I just don't think it's necessary at 2/5.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    Lownstarr said:
    I think you missed my point on balancing. If you're getting yourself in situations where you need to be thinking about balancing, change tables or casinos. I just don't think it's necessary at 2/5.
    Well it's not that easy. This is the closest casino by an hour. And I didn't have the option to move other than down to 1/2 because it's a must move table and I've moved to the 2nd table and there was a juicy main game I was in line for. In fact, this table had about 3 good young guys I would like to stay pretty balanced against.

    What do you do then? Just quit and give up for the day? Or stay and try to play better waiting on the main game. Because I decided to stay, try & play a somewhat balanced game, and work through hands if I make any mistakes like this.



  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    Made a math error (oops) on the odds I'm offering him OTR. He needs to call $315-85= $230. He wins $85+125+315= 525. So I'm offering him 2.3:1. So I need 4-5 bluff combos. To adjust, I'd say we can fold 9d9s since we don't block T9s.
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