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2/5: Spot with 2-pair against TAG

hoodstar Posts: 68Subscriber
edited June 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Game is playing very loose passive with a lot of limp calling going on. Hero and villain are the only two competent players at the table. Hero has a winning image tonight and is sitting on a stack of $2,500, most of which is courtesy of a tilting semi-reg who bluffs too much post flop. Tonight, villain saw me ISO two limpers with 89dd and get called by tilting reg in BB and one of the limpers. I c-bet a 842r board and got called by BB, who then led and Ah turn, and 3c river. I called him down and my hand was good. Villain might see me as sticky tonight because of this hand.

Besides that, our history involves us mostly staying out of each other's way, but he has check raised me in a few suspicious spots over the last couple months but I had nothing both times. Has also 3-bet hero a couple times. My read is that he generally errors on the side of aggression and knows that for the most part I have a fold button.

Hand (Effective stacks 850$): Loose passive postflop/splashy pre-flop whale with 1,500 raises to 20 utg + 2, there is one caller in front of me and I call with KJss. Fishy young player calls CO and villain call on button, as does tilting semi-reg in bb.

Flop is K93hh (150$), checks to hero who bets 90$, button calls and everyone else folds. Turn is the Jh and hero checks, btn bets 150$, hero calls. River is the 3c, hero checks, btn bets 150$....



Now normally against average villain I am b/f this turn, but I didn't see any hands to get value from other than KQ with the queen of hearts. I am assuming villain is almost always 3betting AK here, so I can't really see that hand, nor do I think he has a set given flop action. Against a range of KQ, KJ+, and all reasonable flushes we are getting the right price to call the turn (even more so if he can show up with AK), but what about the river? Is average aggro villain betting those kings on the river or checking back, especially with that super small sizing? If he can this is an obvious call but not sure if the average TAG villain is value towning himself here with those hands?

Thanks

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    edited June 2014
    I actually finally feel I have a better handle on playing against the tendencies of better players who are like us and thin value bet..

    So on the flop what draws are there? Heart flush draws .. a gutshot and thats about it..

    So when you bet $90 and get called the pot is now $ 330.. villain only bets $150.. I am going to call the turn for sure.. He can have one heart.. K9.. JT.. etc.. this range is all dependent on what you have seen him call the btn with. some lags are a bit tighter and might not have K9 and some arent and might even have J9 in their range..

    Since you say he is a TAG.. then how does this affect his range? K9 gone, J9 gone, JT maybe but would he bet that on the turn? and so small? maybe but prob not. Then what other hands can a tag have ? AQhh, AThh (KJ h are on the board so thats the only broadway suited cards) A2-A7h? 99, 33, and even KJ.. Also AK with the Ah..

    So when you put all of this together.. If he is really a tight player then I think he has mainly hands that beat you.. that said I am still probably calling turn and looking for a live read on river.. his $150 bet looks very much like a value bet.. something we might do to get called lighter..

    So as to would your avg tag bet the river.. that is villain dependent.. If he is a thin value better then when you check he might bet small to get called by KQ.. thats why these reads are so important. Also to note .. I know of a couple really good players that will use this board texture to bluff. If you have seen him do this and the bet sizing was the same then you have to call. But most of the time they will bet larger on the river trying to rep the flush to get you off of your hand.. really dependent on how thinly this guy can bet..

    ww
  • maphacks Posts: 1,992Subscriber
    edited June 2014
    I think especially against good opponents a bet/fold on the turn is preferable to a c/c. by checkcalling you do cap your range and I feel good villains will bluff us off on the river too frequently. I don't expect villain to bluffraise the turn very often when we bet there, so it's a pretty safe bet/fold IMO.
    As played I think we have to fold the river. I hardly see anyone betting KQ for value here and AK is unlikely because of preflop. It's also unlikely he is bluffing on the river. the only hand he could turn into a bluff is J9s and rarely JT/QT if he decides to call that on the flop. sizing looks like value as well
  • Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    Please recall that on the flop he called us next to act. Meaning he's not in there with some bullshit when the other two guys are still behind him. He has a King or he has a flush draw, there really isn't anything left for him to have. Sure he's tight, but getting such a good price on the button he's going to be a little wider than normal in this hand. As in, he could have most reasonable combinations of flushes.

    The only reason I can think of not to fold is the great price we're getting on the end. Most players, even good players(I tend to have this issue on occasion as well) aren't great at sizing their bets based on their opponents range. His bet of $150 on the river definitely seems like thin value, yes, but in my experience isn't a nut hand. Most players can't resist betting more with their good hands. It could potentially be AK or KQ trying to get looked up by KT.

    But in reality it's probably a small flush. I wouldn't hate a call, but I think a fold is slightly better.

    Also I see no reason not to bet-fold the turn. Again, you don't need to worry about someone bluff-raising repping hearts in a multiway pot especially since there is no reason at all you can't have the flush yourself when you bet out. I feel this river is way easier to play if you had just bet the turn rather than c/c.
  • fishcake Posts: 935Subscriber
    I think bet/fold turn and check/fold river is the best line. He shouldn't even be betting KQ on the river if you bet twice and AK is unlikely as well, plus he probably 3bets that a lot pre. As played, I think I'm folding. It's very likely he has a straight or flush here.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    By not betting the turn, you're saying that he's going to fold most of his single pair hands and pair + draw hands to our turn bet. I think I agree with that assessment, but that's the questionable part in the line.

    It's really hard for him to be value-owning himself here unless he's betting KQ twice. If he's betting KQ twice, what are we calling with? It has to be exactly KT. Granted, we don't really have that wide of a range here - KQ-K9 and maybe JJ, 99 or 33 - but he still loses to most of it if we call.

    Wendy might be onto something about the bluffing line; if the villain thinks you're a good player, this bet looks like it can never be a bluff. I'm not giving him credit for that the first time, though. I think you have to fold the river.
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