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Set on the turn

wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Not necc the most exciting hand in the world but would like people's opinions:

I think I played this right but not sure. Stacks were deep and every bet was about ½ pot.

Villian raised PF I called on the button with 44. Flop comes 862 with 2 spades. Villian bets ½ pot. I’d seen him CB bluff before so I call. Turn is 4 of spades. He reluactantly bet, I called. River is Q of spades. He seemed happier to bet. I folded. I’m wondering if I should have raised the turn however by me calling I could have a flush so he’s probably not betting the river if a spade doesn’t come unless he has the flush, however I’m guessing he had one single high spade so maybe I should’ve raised the turn both to get called by his high spade and to protect? I’m guessin I played it right just calling but wonder what people think.

Comments

  • jossimar Posts: 7Member
    Not sure what stack sizes are here, but I would play it differently. I would probably fold on the flop - he may have overcards only, but you are basically guaranteed an overcard to your pp on the turn and simply cannot call another bet. It's unlikely you will be getting the odds to spike a 4 on the turn.

    When you reach the turn you have to raise. A call can look strong in this situatiuon, but you cannot essentially give him a free card to the river. You can't let him hit his spade if he has overcards and if he has a bigger pair with no spade he may not pay off on the river when a 4th spade comes. You must charge him for it on the turn. If he has a pair with a spade he may even get it all in as a big dog to your set.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    If you suspect that he cbets a lot, this board often misses him, so I would rather bluffraise on the flop immediately.

    As played, I would definitely raise the turn for value, since after his second barrel, he has many hands with one high spade in his hand (both high pocket pairs with one spade and unpaird broadway hands with one spade). He is going to call a large bet with these hands very frequently, so you have to raise here!
  • CrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
    If he is the type of opponent who doesn't double barrel much I think the call on the flop is okay. I think you lose a lot of value by not raising the turn, as whatsyourplay? said he is definitely going to call with all hand with A or K of spaces and also possibly Q of spades. River decision is easy.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    If you're against a player who knows how to barrel and value bet, then just fold the flop. Even if you have the best hand a lot of the time when he's just cbetting, it won't be profitable to call the flop with a hand that has little chance to improve because later you'll be guessing whether he's barreling or value betting

    But anyway, you called with a pocket pair and got lucky on the turn.

    So...

    I have a strong preference for a smooth call here over a raise. You might have the best hand, and if not, you have a redraw. Protecting against draws is overrated. Just fold when they come in and a large portion of your opponent's range is draws.

    If you raise and get shoved on when you have a set, are you happy calling off? You're usually getting it in bad. So when you raise, you might be paying extra to not see a river.

    When you smooth call with a set, you can still get one more street on the river from worse hands. If you raise and he has an overpair without a redraw, he might fold. But if you just call and the river blanks off, he'll often bet again.

    On the other hand, if I had two pair, I would raise and happily fold to a shove because two pair only has four outs to improve.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    Wait, I missed the part that he reluctantly bet the turn. If your read is that he never has a flush when he bets that way, I guess a raise is ok. But under normal circumstances, I think the turn is a call.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Claire said

    I have a strong preference for a smooth call here over a raise. You might have the best hand, and if not, you have a redraw. Protecting against draws is overrated. Just fold when they come in and a large portion of your opponent's range is draws.
    I disagree strongly with this. You are not raising to protect against draws. You are raising for value! You are way ahead of his range AND you can expect to call (and only call, but very rarely raise) with a very large part of his range. We don't know villains exact position, but since openraised before hero, he definitely has lots of overpairs and broadway hands in his range. About half of those have a spade in it. Each hand with a high spade could be described as a "drawing hand", as you did. Those hands all will call a raise on the turn, but probably not on the river (unless they hit a fourth spade), so why would you not want to raise? I don't understand it.
  • Definitely raise the turn. As WYP said, you can get called by worse. Also, if he doesn't have a spade, a fourth spade will kill your action. It's a raise-fold on the turn.

    As for the flop call, it depends on villain's style, as other posters have said. An interesting thought might be to call flop with the intention of bluffing the turn if the spade comes. Obviously that would be villain dependent, and you wouldn't want to try it against a calling station. You would almost certainly have to follow up with a river bluff if the fourth spade doesn't fall, since he can call your turn bet with a single high spade.
  • CrazyCBettor Posts: 46Member
    Strongly disagree that turn should be a call. As WYP correctly describes it is a raise all day every day.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    Turn is a raise with hands that can't improve, but a set has too strong of a redraw to get blown off of by raising and getting shoved on

    1. You're assuming that villain would bet/call with an overpair with a spade. How do you know he's not going to c/c with these but bet hands? Maybe he's only betting hands that he will either b/f or bet/shove.
    2. It's unlikely villain will put you on exactly a set if you smooth call two streets. If he has an overpair with or without a spade, he'll usually b/f or c/c blank rivers. So you get another street from these hands when you just call the turn

    A fourth spade only falls that doesn't also fill you up about 20% of the time. 80% of the time when the river blanks, I doubt villain is just going to check/fold river. So you get a third street with your set all of these times. And what about the times when he hits his flush and you fill up? He's not going to put you on a full house, so you win even more when this happens.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    My biggest problem with raising, in a vacuum, is that the only very specific type of hand you're trying to get value from is a hand that should often be a c/c from villain than a b/c. Raising a set does worse than calling against all other hands in his range.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Claire said

    My biggest problem with raising, in a vacuum, is that the only very specific type of hand you're trying to get value from is a hand that should often be a c/c from villain than a b/c. Raising a set does worse than calling against all other hands in his range.
    The hands you get value from are a huge part of his range here! Every unpaired hand with a high spade is going to call you. He has at least 10x more of those hand combos (very conservative guess) than made flushes. Claire, I think you are having MUBS, to be honest.

    Also, OP said that villain reluctantly bet on the turn. So, unless this is a fake tell, he should have made flushes close to zero percent here. Also, it doesn't really matter how many hands he will check-call instead of bet himself, because you are ahead at least 95% of the time.

    Last but not least, you mentioned that flattcalling serves the purpose of disguising your hand strength, so that villain won't put you on a set. IMO this is only a valid consideration at higher limits or maybe against very few opponents on this limit, since nobody really knows how to handread.
  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    Pretty interesting. I think there's arguments for playing the turn both ways. Its true there's worse that will call but most of the time it almost seems like against most players (I had a tight image at this table) only better would call if I raise the turn as only a flush will call. AND I can get pushed off my draw. This is kindve like what Bart (Who thought I should raise the turn as well btw) says as far as having the naked Ah with 3 hearts on the turn with a pr isn't it? I could raise the turn but than if the guy has the flush already I'll get pushed off my draw. Isn't this the same thing with a 10 out draw to a full house? Also if he has a flush on the turn I'm most likely getting paid well if I hit my boat. I wasn't that deep (dont recall exactly) but its a capped game also so maybe that plays into it as if he shoves the turn I may be forced to call getting correct odds but getting it in bad. I'm kindve leaning towards agreeing with Claire for these reasons unless I'm real sure he didn't make his flush on the turn than of course I should raise. Of course knowing if he double barrels and bets his draws (player dependant issues) comes into play. Btw I dont think he wasn't a guy who double barrels as most low level players dont so I think a call on the flop is correct. So would he bet the turn again with 2 overs and a high spade? Maybe. Would he bet a flush draw on the flop? Probably. Of course i read him as weak on the turn but who knows that may have been a false tell. The more I think about this for most villians to me it does seem like a call on the turn. Someone want to run the combinatorics of this and post it? :) I probably will and do that. Anyone know of good software that does this?
  • wildncrazyguywildncrazyguy Posts: 422Subscriber
    OK. There are 6 combinations of AK with one spade, 6 of AQ w 1 spade, 6-AJ,6-KQ,6-QJ,3-A10(Im assuming he wouldnt call turn w 10 spades only), 6-KJ,3-K10 = 30 Combinations I'm ahead of that he calls with. Also in his range are flushes of course than he raised preflop- AKs,AQs,AJs,A10s,KQs,QJs,J10s,KJs,K10s,Q10s (he was in late pos but fairly tight so I give him this range)= 10 combinations that beat me. Also over prs - AA, KK ,QQ,JJ,1010,99 - 12 without a spade, 12 with. 12 fold. 12 will call I'll assume. Its is possible although unlikely that flopped a set - 2 combos that will call but have me beat. 1 that I beat and will call. (Again an assumption he'll call w a set himself).

    Therefore,
    Combinations that will call or raise which beat me: 10+2 = 12
    Combinations that will call which I beat: 30+12+2 =44
    Combinations which will fold: 12

    This is assuming there's no air in his range of course. Therefore using this (again if I'm off or missed something let me know. I'm not one of these douchebags online who act like they know everything and everyone else is an idiot :) ) 44 combos I'm ahead of and 24 have me beat or will fold so using the math here since over 1/2 the time I'm ahead and he'll call with worse I should raise the turn. This of course is assuming he calls which a high spade as you a representing a flush to him. If he only calls 1/2 the time or even less than half the time than calling is the right play. In many games thats a fair assumption he wont call with a high spade half the time. You all agree?
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