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I Don't Trust My Judgment Anymore Session Hand 2

UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
edited June 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Won a couple hands after hand 1, and hero's image is neutral to slightly above average
Villain in this hand is one of the best Vegas regs. And I mean at least as good as Bart. But he plays very loose and a little loose passive pre-flop.

This hand was about $1200 effective

Hero raises to 20 UTG with QcQs
Two callers and villain also calls in CO
Blinds fold

Flop ~$87 Qh 5c 6h
Hero bets 50
Villain raises to 100
Hero calls

I didn't want to 3bet the flop, because I thought that would define my range too much against a thinking player. I should only have QQ or a bluff in my range if I 3bet the flop, but if I call then my range can be very wide

Turn Th
Hero checks
Villain bets 175
Hero calls

River 3c

Now what?

Against fish, I think we can bet/fold
But what about against good players?
«1

Comments

  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    I still think u can bet-fold. U have flushes in ur range -- a bluff raise would be pretty daring on his part. If u bet 275, is he really bluff raising? If he knows u, only hand u could have that he could think he might be able to fold out is maybe AQ? Is he really going to try a bluff raise just hoping u have that exact hand? As described seems too smart for that.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    edited June 2014
    Yeah, but if I bet, he shouldn't be calling with worse. Which means it's not really a value bet but kind of a block bet. Or that's what I was thinking then

    And actually if he's super hand reading, when I make this kind of bet, he should know that it' usually is a bet/fold on my part. Because if I had the nut flush, he would expect me to C/R the turn or river.

    On the other hand, this is a great spot to check/ship the river as a bluff if I had AQ or AA with the Ah
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    Well I guess 55/66/56. Maybe that's too narrow of a range to try to get value from. But I really don't think so. If he's raising flop with draw, he should be making a raise that will give him more than minimum fold equity. And if hes got something like 99, you have to give him a chance to level himself into a call.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    I think he can only call a river bet with 66, 55, and maybe 65. Pre-flop action takes AA/KK out of the equation, and him calling a river bet with AQ seems clearly suicidal to me.

    We have to analyze his range a little more. What is min-raising the flop with? To me, it looks like he's taking a value line. Unless there's a prior history element to this hand, the min-raise on the flop isn't going to get you to fold AA, KK, or AQ, and maybe not KQ. That makes me want to take most of the semi-bluffs out of his range. If he doesn't have a semi-bluff, he has AQ, 65, 66, or 55; relevantly, he can't have QhXh.

    If he doesn't really have any semi-bluffs on the flop, he doesn't have any flushes now. If I knew he didn't have a flush, I'm inclined to check and let him fire. It's really close, but I don't think we're getting any more money out of AQ either way, and I think he's more likely to bet with 65 than call a bet with 65.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I've seen him min-raise or check/min-raise the flop as a bluff on obvious cbet type boards. So I couldn't be sure he didn't have semi-bluffs for that reason

    Not sure how often he triple barrels if he's bluffing, though. Most of the time he just checked all the way after the flop and gave up if he was called.

    Anyway, I took the check/evaluate line. I was going to call a reasonably sized bet if I thought he might have been betting a worse hand for value. He bet 600 and I pretty much snap folded. But maybe I should have thought about it a little more because that sizing was pretty polarizing.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    My feeling on the flop is that we want to get more money in the pot ASAP so we can build it to get stacks in. I don't mind making my hand a bit more transparent -- I want to get as much money in on the flop as possible. If he's trying to get a free card with the minraise/check behind line , I want him to pay dearly for that. If he has a hand like a set or 2 pair , then he's probably not folding if we get it in on the flop , but can possibly fold later depending on the runout.
    Raise to $360 on the flop.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    Yeah, I feel like you might have gotten bluffed on this one. You haven't shown tons of strength post-flop. If you turned the nut flush, would you check/call and then check the river? If we can't call this bet with a set of queens, what can we call with besides the nut flush?

    However, he could just as easily have the nut flush and assume you can't fold a flush of any kind, and be going for gold. So yeah, I don't fault you for folding, but I'd agree that it at least merited some thought. Opponent history really muddies this one up; it all depends on what he thinks you'll fold to such a large bet.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    edited June 2014
    He knows I'm a reg but he doesn't play with me that much. And he definitely won't give me credit for anything super sophisticated. Most likely he thinks I'm a small-medium winner

    Actually, if I turned the nut flush, I would still check the river to check/ship because I expect him to bet the river for value with anything better than one pair. So like I said earlier, this is a good spot to check/ship the river as a bluff with the Ah depending on how much he bets

    It would be unlikely for me to have a non-nut flush in my range because my UTG range is so tight. Not sure what he's assuming my UTG range is though

    But I really should have thought about it more instead of auto-folding. If he bet medium, let's say around 250, then I'm forced to call because he could be value betting worse.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    A min raise is still a bizarre sizing for a semi bluff.

    If you think he's got semi bluffs in his range, though, then a raise on flop is close to mandatory. I thought you flatted flop because you thought he had air or a medium strength hand.

    When you flat flop, check turn, check river, you are declaring, 'I have one pair,' signaling him to bluff. Not sure why you think his river sizing is not skewed toward bluffs.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    The only issue is what non-air bluffs does he have besides three combos of 87 suited? And if a min-raise is a bizarre sizing for a semi-bluff, it's even more bizarre for a total bluff.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    Tyrith said:
    The only issue is what non-air bluffs does he have besides three combos of 87 suited? And if a min-raise is a bizarre sizing for a semi-bluff, it's even more bizarre for a total bluff.
    i agree -- it's a weird sizing for either. if he's really this good, isn't it entirely possible that he raised flop with a hand like 99 for value from draws, plus equity protection. he would have kept sizing small because he would have raise-folded a hand of that type. then he fired turn when you checked, for same reason. and now is turning a hand like that into a bluff, realizing that he might be ahead, but could get you to fold out your entire range if he bets big enough?
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    floppedawheel said:
    Tyrith said:
    The only issue is what non-air bluffs does he have besides three combos of 87 suited? And if a min-raise is a bizarre sizing for a semi-bluff, it's even more bizarre for a total bluff.
    i agree -- it's a weird sizing for either. if he's really this good, isn't it entirely possible that he raised flop with a hand like 99 for value from draws, plus equity protection. he would have kept sizing small because he would have raise-folded a hand of that type. then he fired turn when you checked, for same reason. and now is turning a hand like that into a bluff, realizing that he might be ahead, but could get you to fold out your entire range if he bets big enough?
    I feel like he could be taking this line with hands as strong as AQ, to be honest.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    I think that the flop should definitely be a 3bet. If he's a decent player, part of the reason that he picked the min-raise sizing is probably to induce 3bets from bad hands. Since having sets is hard, he's very likely to call down/try and re-bluff you light if he thinks your 3betting range is sets/draws/air.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    It's hard to flop sets and when we do our goal really is getting our money in. We have 240 BB to attempt to get into the pot by river. If the villain has a lot of equity in the pot I would think he is not minraising the flop bet. He is more likely to 3x -4x the flop bet cause he doesn't mind a raise but he won't mind a fold either. He is not raising with JJ-99. That would be akin to raising to see where I'm at.

    IMO
    He is raising the flop with a hand that beats 1 pair. In this case 66 55 or 65 and building his own pot. I would weight this towards mid or lower sets as opposed to draws.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    Arenzano said:
    He is not raising with JJ-99.
    but i think he's more likely to have this than a draw when he's min raising flop.

  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    edited June 2014
    I would just 3-bet flop or lead turn. His flop minraise seems like a blockbet to try to get you to check turn. Your hand has way too much value to play as a bluffcatcher, would rather take your line with KQo or something like that.

    Also you stated that your flop 3-betting range here is only QQ/bluffs, by that do you mean your actual range or perceived range? If it's the latter then it's a fantastic spot to 3-bet as he probably won't give you credit for repping exactly 1 hand.
    UntreatableFPS said:

    Villain in this hand is one of the best Vegas regs. And I mean at least as good as Bart.
    Blasphemy ban.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    his sizing on the flop is indicative of a value hand NOT a bluff. Is he really going to raise 50 bucks in that size pot with a bluff? really? if you thought yes then its a level. Hes saying " I have two pair or a set" I would def threebet.. Your sizing should be bigger too.. if he really has a value hand I doubt hes folding to that AND if he was semi bluffing you get more money in the pot as well.

    On the turn I would lead again but this time since his range is more value hand then I would probably size it a bit smaller..

    ww
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    What makes him so good? Does he get people to fold a lot? Does he just always have the goods and always gets paid off? I'd start taking a lot of notes on his game and try to learn what his approach is to poker.

    When he min raises this type of flop, he obviously has some sort of overall game plan. He probably thinks you play pretty straight forward against it and can use a lot of scare cards against you. So I'd c/c river as played. But I agree with the other posters saying you should just 3 bet. When we cbet into a 4 way pot on this board, we should have plenty of hands to defend with by calling and playing as a bluff catcher. And like aesah said, if we are repping only sets on a drawy board, he will likely give us action.
  • fishcake Posts: 1,002Subscriber
    3bet flop for value. Don't over think the hand.
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    What do you think he thinks you have based on your betting pattern what are you telling him about you maybe top pair w heart draw. You're raising UTG then continuation betting about 1/2 pot. He raises you call. If you're just betting to pick up the pot his raise and your call tells him you have some of that.

    Imagine you are in the cut off what hands are you calling 20 with. The raiser continuation bets, what are you raising with and why only 100 more. Turn is a 10, completing heart flush. Now the original raiser checks the flush you are on the button button what leads are you making for 175. Villain smooth calls... Now what evaluation would you make of the original raiser? Are you a fish that goes too far with top pair ? Did you slow play hearts or call drawing to single Kh or Ah.

    What would you bet in position if you were him ? Does that help your evaluation.

    You have 1200 at start and 275 in, I'd part with 475-600 if you have a good rep or benefit of the doubt with the villain. leading is a strong indicator that you have hearts and want to get paid 78 hearts might fold. If you have a bad rep or you don't think you can push him out I'd check and call up to 475.
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