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c/r or lead?

maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
edited July 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
nl500,

hero, big stack, image doesn't matter - villain is new
villain, 20s , "looks competent" , no reads

150bb eff.

HJ limps, villain limps CO, BU limps, SB completes, hero checks 22 in BB.

flop (23) QcJh2h, SB nit leads 15, hero raises to 55, fold, CO calls, fold, fold.

turn (146) 8d, hero bets 105, villain calls.

river (354) 3d, hero?

I expect SB to lead a Q here very often which makes it less likely villain has a made hand. Qhxh makes a lot of sense, combodraws and QJ as well. I think a straight is quite unlikely given that he calls a raise on the flop on an FD board and also I would expect him to raise the turn. Im pretty much only beat by Th9h.

Do you expect guys to always bet QJ here when I check?
Is it better to go for a c/r therefore to give him the chance to bluff a busted draw?

I have a pretty clear opinion on the hand but my friend was not convinced. what do you think?
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Comments

  • Topset1610 Posts: 280Subscriber
    I think you should lead pretty much always in this spot. Probably around 65% of pot. I guess you could bomb the pot and make it look like a busted flush draw as well, but I prefer a smaller bet.

    Checking would be very villain dependent and only if I knew he was capable of bluffing the river.
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    He has performed 0 aggressive actions this hand so I wouldn't want to rely on him putting money into the pot for you.

    There's a lot of local guys I might check to but that's with history where I know they'll stab at pots if they have no way to win a showdown. Unknowns are just likely to give up busted draws IMO.
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    The money isn't going to get itself in there. I'd make the biggest looking block bet you can make, because you want the most of his range calling, and possibly entice a re-raise bluff or re-raise from 2pr.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    I'll take the other side here - if we bet again, isn't his calling range just QJ and maybe like Qh8h? And if that's the case, won't he be betting almost always? He limped pre-flop, so I think we can take AQ out of his range. Is he really going to call a flop raise, a turn bet and then a river bet with KQ or QT?

    If he's going to bet his entire calling range and might bluff, shouldn't we check? We should size our raise in order to extract the max from two pair, since he won't call any sort of a raise with no pair.
  • Topset1610 Posts: 280Subscriber
    Tyrith said:
    I'll take the other side here - if we bet again, isn't his calling range just QJ and maybe like Qh8h? And if that's the case, won't he be betting almost always? He limped pre-flop, so I think we can take AQ out of his range. Is he really going to call a flop raise, a turn bet and then a river bet with KQ or QT?

    If he's going to bet his entire calling range and might bluff, shouldn't we check? We should size our raise in order to extract the max from two pair, since he won't call any sort of a raise with no pair.
    It is just a really villain dependent play. I think you are right that a case can be made to check here in certain situations. If he is going to bet his entire calling range and might bluff then yeah it would be better to check, but I do not think that is the case. Also what is his bluffing range? IMO either a busted FD or Straight Draw.

    I am interested to hear everyone's thoughts on this, but I feel like there is a direct correlation between how people play FD's and SD's. If they take a more passive line where they just call on the flop and turn they are less likely to bluff the river. On the other side if they take an aggressive line where they are re-raising or the person that is initiating the action they are more likely to bluff the river when they miss. Based off of this theory he would be less likely to bluff when he misses so you are not going to get value from his missed draws by checking. Idk if this is pretty obvious, but I do not really remember seeing it anywhere.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    even he bluffs 0% with his FDs, c/r could be better if he is bet/calling QJ here. If he has Qhxh I doubt he is calling more than say 120 or so but I don't want to bet small because I don't think I can induce a raise and I loose a lot of value against QJ which is the most likely hand.
  • Lownstarr Posts: 268Subscriber
    I find that in my player pool, guys are going to show up there with a Q a lot. Two pair hands like QJ are going to be much more aggressive than this guy was.

    Given this, I'm sizing my river bet so that Q with mediocre kicker can call...$175-190 or so.

    Also, I don't like the raise on the flop. Why take an action there that increases fold equity for someone with just a Q? I would have called flop and hoped he bet again on the turn...then took the lead on betting if he checked.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    raising the flop where a tight player leads into 4 ppl on a flushdraw+straightdraw board is an absolute must IMO
  • Lownstarr Posts: 268Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    maphacks said:
    raising the flop where a tight player leads into 4 ppl on a flushdraw+straightdraw board is an absolute must IMO
    It's a limped pot, and he's betting out of the blinds on the flop. If he listens to Bart's podcasts, for example, he's going to lead top pair any kicker there.

    Oh, and there are no absolutes if you listened to Bart's podcast this week.

  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    We flopped a set in a limped pot 150BB deep, where the guy can have two pair or top pair and a flush draw. We need to be trying to win a big pot against this guy. I'd rather win one additional street (which will be a large bet) against the top of his range than trying to win one more street (which will be a small bet) against the bottom of his range.

    Even though the bottom of his range is wider, it's also far from guaranteed that he's going to bet again, if he's betting random cards. If we flat, we also have the potential for letting a lot of draws come in cheaply that will either call a larger bet or that will only give us action if they make a hand.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    Lownstarr said:
    Also, I don't like the raise on the flop. Why take an action there that increases fold equity for someone with just a Q?

    You are not considering villains entire range and the fact there are still 4 people left to act after hero. 1st off this board is extremely draw heavy and we can raise here for value. Second, if he has a hand like Qx+ there are a fair amount of cards that can come on the turn that kill our action.

  • Lownstarr Posts: 268Subscriber
    Skinnybrown said:
    Lownstarr said:
    Also, I don't like the raise on the flop. Why take an action there that increases fold equity for someone with just a Q?

    You are not considering villains entire range and the fact there are still 4 people left to act after hero. 1st off this board is extremely draw heavy and we can raise here for value. Second, if he has a hand like Qx+ there are a fair amount of cards that can come on the turn that kill our action.

    Idk. Raising there screams, "I have a monster!" I don't think many draws are going to call a raise. Qx that isn't TPTK isn't going to call a raise. TPTK, an over pair, two pair or better will. Given the limping that went on, over pairs and TPTK are less likely. Count up all those combos, and I think you'll find the number of hands getting folded out greatly outweighs the hands that call.

  • dannydeuces Posts: 239Member
    Lownstarr said:
    I find that in my player pool, guys are going to show up there with a Q a lot. Two pair hands like QJ are going to be much more aggressive than this guy was.

    Given this, I'm sizing my river bet so that Q with mediocre kicker can call...$175-190 or so.

    Also, I don't like the raise on the flop. Why take an action there that increases fold equity for someone with just a Q? I would have called flop and hoped he bet again on the turn...then took the lead on betting if he checked.
    Agree the river bet of 190 works best - sizing can get a queen/2pair to look you up possibly.

    Like raising the flop on that wet of a board with the flush/straight draws out there, especially that it was limped preflop 5 ways.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    Lownstarr said:
    Skinnybrown said:
    Lownstarr said:
    Also, I don't like the raise on the flop. Why take an action there that increases fold equity for someone with just a Q?

    You are not considering villains entire range and the fact there are still 4 people left to act after hero. 1st off this board is extremely draw heavy and we can raise here for value. Second, if he has a hand like Qx+ there are a fair amount of cards that can come on the turn that kill our action.

    Idk. Raising there screams, "I have a monster!" I don't think many draws are going to call a raise. Qx that isn't TPTK isn't going to call a raise. TPTK, an over pair, two pair or better will. Given the limping that went on, over pairs and TPTK are less likely. Count up all those combos, and I think you'll find the number of hands getting folded out greatly outweighs the hands that call.

    You say u wouldn't raise the flop and at the same time you say that guys in your player pool are going to show up with a Q here a lot concering the river. that's a contradiction..

    and if it screams "I have a monster" - why wouldn't villains call with nutfd or KT? don't really get it ....
    And btw what's your plan on the turn in case you call? On heart turn we call I guess? non heart A,K or 8 we raise?
    if we raise a blank on the turn it looks even stronger and we lose a ton against QJ.

  • Lownstarr Posts: 268Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    maphacks said:
    Lownstarr said:
    Skinnybrown said:
    Lownstarr said:
    Also, I don't like the raise on the flop. Why take an action there that increases fold equity for someone with just a Q?

    You are not considering villains entire range and the fact there are still 4 people left to act after hero. 1st off this board is extremely draw heavy and we can raise here for value. Second, if he has a hand like Qx+ there are a fair amount of cards that can come on the turn that kill our action.

    Idk. Raising there screams, "I have a monster!" I don't think many draws are going to call a raise. Qx that isn't TPTK isn't going to call a raise. TPTK, an over pair, two pair or better will. Given the limping that went on, over pairs and TPTK are less likely. Count up all those combos, and I think you'll find the number of hands getting folded out greatly outweighs the hands that call.

    You say u wouldn't raise the flop and at the same time you say that guys in your player pool are going to show up with a Q here a lot concering the river. that's a contradiction..

    and if it screams "I have a monster" - why wouldn't villains call with nutfd or KT? don't really get it ....
    And btw what's your plan on the turn in case you call? On heart turn we call I guess? non heart A,K or 8 we raise?
    if we raise a blank on the turn it looks even stronger and we lose a ton against QJ.

    No that was a discussion about the flop not the river. I was responding to Skinnybrown.

    With respect to your question about nutfd and KT, guys in my player pool that are any kind of competent have learned not to chase draws on the flop when someone has shown a lot of strength unless they're really deep. Maybe they're different in yours and would call there.

    See my posts above for plan on turn if you call flop. If a draw comes in then we're bet/folding or raise/folding depending on what the sb does. The deeper you get guys into a hand, especially if they've been betting or calling, the less likely they are to fold in my player pool. Two pair would have raised the flop...precisely why you suggested we raise. (Guys in my pool struggle with getting value with their strong hands.)
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    who said we play against competent players....not in a million years will sb bet/fold nutfd....I permanently see people calling my overbets in limped pots if they have any piece of it just because it's "not much money" ....if average 2-5 players start to bet/fold medium/strong hands, I would quit poker
  • Lownstarr Posts: 268Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    maphacks said:
    who said we play against competent players....not in a million years will sb bet/fold nutfd....I permanently see people calling my overbets in limped pots if they have any piece of it just because it's "not much money" ....if average 2-5 players start to bet/fold medium/strong hands, I would quit poker
    Ehhh I think this is the crux of our disagreement about how to play the hand. I think the raise to $55 is bad without a specific player read...at least it is in my player pool. Lots of guys in my pool will bet $15 there with weak hands but fold to a raise. They'll then bet again on the turn if you just call there.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    Lownstarr said:
    maphacks said:
    who said we play against competent players....not in a million years will sb bet/fold nutfd....I permanently see people calling my overbets in limped pots if they have any piece of it just because it's "not much money" ....if average 2-5 players start to bet/fold medium/strong hands, I would quit poker
    Ehhh I think this is the crux of our disagreement about how to play the hand. I think the raise to $55 is bad without a specific player read...at least it is in my player pool. Lots of guys in my pool will bet $15 there with weak hands but fold to a raise. They'll then bet again on the turn if you just call there.
    I really would like to end this discussion. where are you playing? If a tight player leads into four people he has KQ,QJ,QT,Q2s or J2s, AhXh, Qhxh, Th9h,KhTh,Th8h,Kh9h. KQ and QT will probably fold, the rest is calling ....that's estimated 70% ....
    If we want to get max value from KQ and QT (not sure if he would lead weaker Qx), I would have to call the turn as well and pray that turn/river are blanks. I probably lose avg. 1-2bb vs these hands by raising flop. if he has QJ or Qhxh I will probably loose estimated 30bb by not raising the flop (because there are bad turn which either kill my action or my hand)

    no offense but not a second did I think about NOT raising. I just think that would be totally crazy unless there is a really/super agressive player behind me. but usually if he is really bad he doesn't care if it's 15 or 55 if he has any piece.... it's like not raising a straight on a flushdraw board where guy leads into four ppl from upfront...

    Somehow it drives me crazy that you adivse to call here^^ sorry dude, I don't want to be insulting or arrogant just can't ignore this...
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    maphacks said:
    Lownstarr said:
    maphacks said:
    who said we play against competent players....not in a million years will sb bet/fold nutfd....I permanently see people calling my overbets in limped pots if they have any piece of it just because it's "not much money" ....if average 2-5 players start to bet/fold medium/strong hands, I would quit poker
    Ehhh I think this is the crux of our disagreement about how to play the hand. I think the raise to $55 is bad without a specific player read...at least it is in my player pool. Lots of guys in my pool will bet $15 there with weak hands but fold to a raise. They'll then bet again on the turn if you just call there.
    I really would like to end this discussion. where are you playing? If a tight player leads into four people he has KQ,QJ,QT,Q2s or J2s, AhXh, Qhxh, Th9h,KhTh,Th8h,Kh9h. KQ and QT will probably fold, the rest is calling ....that's estimated 70% ....
    If we want to get max value from KQ and QT (not sure if he would lead weaker Qx), I would have to call the turn as well and pray that turn/river are blanks. I probably lose avg. 1-2bb vs these hands by raising flop. if he has QJ or Qhxh I will probably loose estimated 30bb (random number obv) by not raising the flop (because there are bad turn which either kill my action or my hand)

    no offense but not a second did I think about NOT raising. I just think that would be totally crazy unless there is a really/super agressive player behind me. but usually if he is really bad he doesn't care if it's 15 or 55 if he has any piece.... it's like not raising a straight on a flushdraw board where guy leads into four ppl from upfront...

    Somehow it drives me crazy that you adivse to call here^^ sorry dude, I don't want to be insulting or arrogant just can't ignore this...
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    and btw . A lot of recs give a shit what villains has when they have what they perceive to be a good hand. it's the typical situation on the river when they sigh and say " I have to call" - they know they are beat almost always but can't laydown their hand because they have AA or so and the hand is just too pretty
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