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too sick?

maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
edited July 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
nl500,

villain, old nitty guy, bought in short, worked his stack up to 300bb

hero, winning image, covers, 20s

HJ limps, hero raises to 25 with AxJc, villain BU calls, HJ calls,

flop (78) AcTcTd, HJ checks, hero decides to check, villain quickly bets 65, HJ folds, hero calls

turn (208) Jd, hero leads 125, villain instantly prepares his chips and then calls after about 10-15 seconds

river (458) 8s, hero bets 125, villain snapraises to 250. hero?

Thoughts: on the flop it's probably better simply to bet/fold. With the Jc I decided to checkcall because bad cards will give me a redraw - probably not reason enough if these guys never bluff....whatever. when this guy bets 65 I am pretty sure he has something, most likely A or T and sometimes a flushdraw. on the turn I see him checking back Ax a lot and a flushdraw sometimes so I decided to lead to protect and get value from Ax and FDs. Looks strange but doesn't really matter against this guy. By his timing I am not sure if I can exclude Ax little, probably he would think a bit longer with a weak Ace and sometimes even fold it. AK,AQ makes a lot of sense and trips as well. on the river I am not sure if I can valuebet but AK and AQ will look me up very often for that size (maybe even any Ax). when he snapraises I am almost never good but after some consideration I thought about shipping it. I don't think he will play a boat that way very often but possible. Could be really bad if he never raises trips.

It's about 1000 more for him to call. Can old coffee guy fold trips or KQ here against a huge raise?

Comments

  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    This just smells too much like a boat for me to want to turn AJ into a bluff here. I think he has AT and JT a ton; this is the sort of goofy line that nitty old guys take as their big value line sometimes. I'm also not sure he's raising KT/QT/T9 for value here.
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    nitty guy probably doesn't bet gutshot 3 ways
  • dannydeuces Posts: 239Member
    min raise on the river by an old nitty guy is always the nuts.
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    Old man has a T not folding to your raise. Old and nitty is never believing you have KQ. Even if you shove he's holding his nose and calling. If you have AA you have AA...
  • PokerSniperAA Posts: 10Member
    edited July 2014
    I would bet/fold, bet/fold, check/fold. There is multiple people in pot and that is key here.

    I was in a similar spot the other day however it was in a tourney early on. I had KQ raised it up got 2 callers. flop came K 10 10 and I bet flop and get 1 caller. Turn was a J giving me open ended draw and I lead/ bet and he raised me a huge amount and I just folded. He ended up showing the A 5 for a complete bluff. I just chalked it up to him and said nice play. Deep in the tourney he ended up stacking me with AA vs QQ with 20 BB's effective preflop EWWWWW.

    My spot on the turn is actually a little different because I could check call because i dont want to get blown off of my open ender.
  • AlexB Posts: 160Subscriber
    this is bet/fold flop, bet/fold turn small, check-fold river. It's almost 50-50 he has Ace or Ten in his hand. We beat all Aces and chop with AJ. To value bet on river we need to be good a minimum of 60% of the time, which we're not.
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