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Do you bet this river? 2/5 at the Wynn. Thin river value decision.

EihliEihli Posts: 29Member
edited July 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Just sat down. No read on this player other than he looks to be a middle aged part Asian decent recreational player.

We are both $700 deep.

Villain limps in MP. I raise to 20 with ThTs from the small blind. Only Villain calls.

Flop 2d 4c 9d: ($45)

I bet $30. Villain fairly quickly calls.

Turn 9c ($105)

I bet $70. (Is this a good bet and size? Too many draws and scare cards to go for a check and pot control. I feel like he can raise a wide range here though and I think my default play is to fold too large of my range, so I feel like this is a spot I could get exploited at if I was playing against tough thinking GTO type players. So from a GTO perspective, what do you think his raising range here should be, and what do you think my bet-calling range should be?)
Villain fairly quickly calls.

River 6c ($245)

Do you bet this river? The 35 OESD gets there, diamond draws won't call. Are there enough low pocket pairs and A4 type hands in his range and does he call those? How much?

Thanks.

Comments

  • RDF Posts: 183Member
    Bet 145.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    i think 145 might be a little large. you're looking to get called by 55/77/88/A4s. i think 145 is a little much. i'd probably go around 100. it's just enough that i don't think you'll induce a bluff. since this was raised pre, there are fewer suited connectors and 35 combos in his range, making pairs a little more likely. it's very thin, but i don't think too thin.
  • DoubleAAron Posts: 112Subscriber
    I'm all on the thin value betting wagon but I think it's too thin here.

    In this particular hand, is there any more merit to check/calling the river then bet/folding based on the fact that there are so few value hands in his range we can get called by and many more missed overcard/diamond draws that we can induce a bluff from? It basically comes down to the fact that we need to get called and win more than 50% of the time for it to be profitable and we are never a) getting a better hand to fold and b) allowing a missed draw to bluff.

    I've been sitting here thinking about it for like 30 minutes and I just think because of the bricked diamond draw, the thinness of our hand and not having any reads, I'd have been more likely to check/call most river bets. Am I way off here?
  • Topset1610 Posts: 280Subscriber
    I agree with DoubleAAron. I would check call here and give him the opp to bluff. I do not think you are getting 3 streets from A4 or even pocket 5's - 8's (Maybe if you bet very small).

    I do think if you check you will occasionally induce a bluff.
  • EihliEihli Posts: 29Member
    For those of you saying check/call on a 6 because you don't get value from weak pairs: What do you do if the river is an offsuit T giving us a full house?
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    The live poker mantra of bet/fold is definitely exploitable by GTO-style players, and bet/folding TT on the turn would be very much exploitable. It's completely based around the fact that live poker players don't have a large enough bluffing frequency. But hey, it works.

    I'm definitely not betting this river...the only hands he might have that give us three streets are 88 and 77, but he really just has a bluff-catcher. In experience, I'm don't think this stereotype is going to bluff-catch the river often enough to make up for all the times we lose to sets and A9/T9/98.

    Check/call versus check/fold is really close on this one. If he bets small or really large, I'm probably going to fold; medium-to-large bets, eh, I'd probably just go with my gut at the table.

    If we hit a T on the river, whether or not it makes a flush draw, I'm going to bet something like $100 or so. It's a blockish looking bet with the aim of getting him to raise with A9, a flush if one is possible, or a smaller boat. Then we can bet/3-bet him and really get him, unless he can make a very disciplined fold. The alternative is to bet $200 or so and just go for it, but since he can have a decently wide value range, I'd take the gamble of going for gold and trying to get him to raise a good bit of his range.
  • dannydeuces Posts: 239Member
    Eihli said:
    For those of you saying check/call on a 6 because you don't get value from weak pairs: What do you do if the river is an offsuit T giving us a full house?
    Bomb river for 200-250 hoping to get called/raised by a 9
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Topset1610 said:
    I agree with DoubleAAron. I would check call here and give him the opp to bluff. I do not think you are getting 3 streets from A4 or even pocket 5's - 8's (Maybe if you bet very small).

    I do think if you check you will occasionally induce a bluff.

    this is wrong thinking imho.. in 2/5 unless you have seen villain river bluff or bet thin then they just dont ever do it.. if hero checks and villain bets its a fold.. now if you think that you will get called by a pocket pair then I would bet kinda small.. with the flush coming in its kinda a good scary board where better probably isnt raising unless they hit the flush.. even a naked 9 probably isnt raising.. So just size the bet so when called you are good a little better than 50% ... small like 100 or less..

    ww
  • EihliEihli Posts: 29Member
    edited July 2014
    Assuming he gets to the river with most of his weak/middle pairs, and assuming he check/calls those pairs about 40-70% of the time on the river, then I think this is a good value bet. Missed flush draws make up about 20% of his range by the river so if he bluffs half of those and bets all of his trip+, which he'll have about 30% of the time, then you win about 1/4 of the time when you check/call the river. Whereas if we bet out, then about 57% of the time we are called, we will be good. (edit: forgot trips which we make more by bombing. don't have time to redo math. It's about 10% of his range at river though. But sometimes he'd bet out the river with that so that needs to be weighted too.)

    Of course there are a lot of assumptions made about his range here but sometimes your assumptions will be wrong the bad way, sometimes they'll be wrong the good way, so it should be pretty close.

    If you want to run the ranges I used through flopzilla for yourself, here is the text:

    [Flopzilla v1.6.7]
    [Use Ctrl+I to import into Flopzilla]
    [www.flopzilla.com ]
    [jJZdFWjnN8NyCCTPNGuoMWsdBrFEi4JRRNWa982AISfcnwF1gP]
    [DUyPcMNpFgBzkJ3uH1hMmJom5Gh7jG19ZxdhPh2l0s4qCf2or1]
    [NTvDOwsL38JSUg4cOXWCl+ljL7HCpnn1hvCPwTYpkLnSm00cZN]
    [0N+LxaXlhpKwzpRsgpDEoD41Wxz0KPtfy+SL+KLS1gatK1y8o4]
    [ZnP5m7tafSYg88D+l8Zr7MOrbfsswMEykkVvGW6aG8cNwJbNBf]
    [+boyeKlktcOi0wUhfzbkFECeLw0+vMn9hKAAXf1FmehvhhTpBO]
    [IRVSx6jxD+Cenw52DykhgekDg2UGj81VVGHaed]

    image

    And the reason I asked what you would do if a T came on the river is because it doesn't change his range any. So the only difference is that we get paid off more when he has a monster. But some of his monsters (full houses) would raise a small value bet that we make. So against those hands, we make the same or more than if we just bombed. So by betting small, we get called by small pairs, raised by full houses, and called by flushes/straights. If we bet large, we still might get raised by full houses (but with these stacks sizes if he decides to raise whether we bet small or large, we are probably getting all the money in either way), we fold out small pairs, and we make more against the straights and flushes. But since straights and flushes make up such a small fraction of his range, and small pairs make up such a large fraction, I think that even with the T hits on the river, we should be betting small, about 100-150, to try to get looked up by the majority of his range.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    If a player is a middle aged Asian guy and limp/calling, worrying about the gto play and being exploitable isn't really anything to worry about. And fwiw, I probably vouch for playing closer to gto more than 99% of posters on this forum.

    I'd try to take the most exploitive line and in this instance, I think it's pretty close between c/c and betting small on the river. I agree it's pretty difficult to get called, so I would bet smaller if I bet.

    The question that I think is interesting to those saying it's a bet, how light should we value bet? What's the difference between TT, 88, and 77? For instance, 88 only loses to 6 more combos of TT, but against a limp/caller, how important is this? And with 77, we lose to 12 combos of 88 and TT (with TT probably discounted). Where is our breaking point of one hand being too thin? I also get worried that there's a lot of combos of 9x off suit to where we can accidentally value bet way too thinly. On the other hand, how often will someone just raise 9x on the turn and make his range super weak on the river?

    It would be nice to have more reads but that's poker. I like c/c the river against opponents in spots like this a lot but I understand the worries of being exploited by people who never bluff. Very interesting hand where I can see the merits to several different lines.
    by 1Eihli
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    Eihli said:
    For those of you saying check/call on a 6 because you don't get value from weak pairs: What do you do if the river is an offsuit T giving us a full house?
    I don't think this should change our thinking. If we believe the villain will bluff a lot, we should still check as we can c/r and still get value from his trips or better. If we think he won't bluff but has a really weak range, we should still bet smaller and hope to get looked up lightly. The fact that our absolute hand strength changed shouldn't change our line that much other than we won't fold when raised and we c/r instead of c/c.
    by 1Eihli
  • DoubleAAron Posts: 112Subscriber
    Thehammah said:
    Topset1610 said:
    I agree with DoubleAAron. I would check call here and give him the opp to bluff. I do not think you are getting 3 streets from A4 or even pocket 5's - 8's (Maybe if you bet very small).

    I do think if you check you will occasionally induce a bluff.

    this is wrong thinking imho.. in 2/5 unless you have seen villain river bluff or bet thin then they just dont ever do it..
    I don't agree with this statement at all. I've played a ton of hours at 2/5 recently and I see it on a regular basis by both rec players and thinking ones. In my last trip alone, where the hands are still fresh in my head, I called a total rec player's bluff raise on the river with Q6 (was in the bb) on a 653KK board and he tabled A4 and in a separate hand check/folded 10's on a J23ssK3 board against a young female pro who flipped over 64ss after she called my 3 bet pre in position just called my flop and turn bet. A lot of players, even thinking players, will sometimes take a passive route with a draw then realize on the river the only way they can win is to bet. It's not something that "they just don't ever do".

    Like DrGambol said, this is a pretty interesting hand where you can really make arguments for both plays on the river. I said I would likely check/call a lot of bets in this spot and I've been thinking about it a lot over the last couple of days when I'm daydreaming at work or something. The more I think about it, the more comfortable I feel about that line of thinking. There are so few hands that we can call and get value from and even if the Villain has one of those hands, he is not always going to pay off the 3rd barrel because of our now perceived range. Also we haven't talked a lot about the fact that he has a few sets in his range that were looking for a safe turn card to build the pot on and filled up so waited for the river hoping we would make a flush.

    What it really comes down to for me personally and how I approach cash games is I want as much information as possible and will wait for hours for a good spot where I can use that information. Since betting the river here is so thin, maybe neutral EV to within a few dollars, I'd rather take the route where I have a greater chance of getting to showdown and seeing the Villain's hand and using what I learned in a bigger pot later on in the session. But with a few more reads or a little bit more relative strength in our hand, I can definitely see being on the other side of the line here. Without those, I think I check.
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