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2/5 What would you do?

Mike D. Posts: 116Subscriber
edited July 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 $525 eff
V1 EP Mid 30's. Haven't seen any non-standard play. Seems competent. Talking about other players at other casinos with dealer who knows him.
V2 MP Late 20's. This guy's poker goal is to trap. He won a $180 pot against H with a limp/call, cc, cc, c shove (for remaining $50) holding AK off against H AQ on a flopped A. (So, there is the hate factor on my part!)
H Mid 50's. Tight image.

V1 limps, V2 limps, H raises to $25 with A A V1 and V2 call.
Pot ~$75

Flop K 9 3
V1 checks, V2 checks, H bets $50.
V1 calls, V2 raises to $130, H calls, V1 tanks-shoves remaining $400.
V2 shows cards to neighbor and folds. H?

Comments

  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    Hm, this one is kinda weird. If V1 had a set, I would have expected him to raise your c-bet. If he had a flush draw, why on earth is he 3-bet shipping? It certainly doesn't look like he has any fold equity.

    However, this definitely looks like a value line - a set or maybe K9 that was either just playing trappy or was going to wait for a safe turn card. There are lots of people that wouldn't fold AA or AK here, and if he seems like a standard opponent I'm just not giving him credit for being able to bluff here. Fold it up.
    by 1Mike D.
  • cdg7 Posts: 2Member
    Easy fold, imo. Best case is villain has Q J or J T which you're flipping against. Villain has 99, 33, K9 a lot. Villain rarely has Kx.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber
    It doesn't make sense to me that he would c/c a set only to back 3bet shove it now.
    It really looks like FD, most likely combo draw, (A3ss in his range also) and he's trying to pick up "dead money" with a lot of equity the way the hand played out.

    You gotta call 270 to win 735 getting more than 2.5:1.
    Even if u flipping with some combo draw u cannot fold with these pot odds
    by 1Mike D.
  • LVH Posts: 171Member
    I think clock is on the nose. Plus, he almost certainly isn't limp calling KK, and I'd guess a mid 30s regular probably is open limp calling 99 less than half the time. K9 far less than half the time. Plus K9 is barely even bad for us at this point. If he DOES open limp call 99, AK is probably a small possibility too. PLUS, he might open fold 33 in EP at least sometimes. More likely than open folding QJ, AT, or JT suited, I think. You've also got A3 suited and QT suited and maybe other suited aces, since As is out there.

    If the tank isn't an acting job, I think it's indicative of draws and maybe the odd AK. I guess 33 might be thinking, "can I trap here?" but I think 90% of players quickly reject that idea because either they are afraid or they want to extract value right now from draws, AK, AA, etc.. Maybe 4 seconds to think, "is this set over set? Well, if it is so be it." There's really not much to think about, though obv. some people tank in weird spots or Hollywood. But then again, this doesn't really seem like a Hollywood spot with a set. You got action already. And, as clock said, sets very often have gotten aggressive before now.

    The spade hands have a lot more to think about. Figuring out how strong a shove looks and if it will be enough of a raise to cause any folds, debating trying to get more money in the pot vs. just pulling the trigger, trying to figure out your hands, wondering how bad this is against a set or a higher FD, etc.

    Pretty sure I'd call this every time.
    by 1Mike D.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    I guess I will take another line.. If Hero was up against V2 and he raised this flop then I am not folding.. Cuz of V2s tendencies to trap the fact he raised means his hand is most like only a single pair.. I doubt hes raising with anything other than tp.. So I can squarely put him on a K.. or even a draw..

    That said V1 would normally play a big hand as a check raise given he is out of pos from the pfr and expects pfr to bet this on the flop.. With his tendencies to be more straightforward he has MORE value hands in his range then draws.. this is typical abc type play.. He is not shoving say qj ss over a bet from a pfr and a raise if he is a typical abc player.. Now if hero has seen V1 capable of this then by all means re ship.. But I just dont see it that often from a player described. remember aggro action on wet boards as c/r is weighted more towards made hands.. what did V1 do preflop ? He limped so what is V1 range? AK? no way, K9 maybe.. so there would be three combos of K9 suited (hearts, clubs and dia cuz the Kand the 9 on flop are both spades) then theres three combos of 33 and possibly 3 combos of 99 if he limps with that.. other than that he really cant have K3 or 93.. even the worst players generally wont play those utg.. ok so maybe a few will but not based on Heros description.

    so if V2 is fairly weak.. and V1s range is actually pretty strong here and Hero in the middle I would fold this.. V1 doesnt have too many draws.. V2 could have the draws since he raised. and against both ranges I actually think I am doing pretty bad here because I really dont think they have each others outs.. If I thought both villains had more draws then I am happy to get it in.

    So combined ranges for both are cleanly

    99, 33, K9 suited, JTss QJss, QTss Ax ss (prob not AK-AT since V2 also limped).. I DONT have the As which is better but

    So I ran a simulation with the above range of both villains and got around 57% equity for hero..

    Question for Mike D.... did you think the tank was not a fake tell? If you really felt he was strong then I still might fold given the action because he never has worse than me.. but if you think his tank was genuine then he can have more tp hands..

    very interesting..

    ww
    by 1Mike D.
  • Mike D. Posts: 116Subscriber
    Thanks for the thoughtful feedback. I processed the situation similarly to Wendy, in that I comfortably took AA, KK, and AK out of his range due to the lack of action pre-flop (and the fact that I had AA!). I was also pretty convinced that flush draws were unlikely due to the lack of initial action post flop. Most players I see will try and protect their draws in early position with some sort of block bet. I was also pretty convinced that K9 and 93 were unlikely due to the V's solid play so far-I couldn't convince myself that he would call my $25 open with those hands. So, what hands would explain this action? I figured 99, 33, or a bluff-period. (As I crawl along the learning curve of hand reading, one of my leaks is limiting a players range.) I didn't want to play for stacks with that hand reading conclusion. I folded. He urned over a J . I cussed, and then complimented him on his play. He said that my call on V2's check raise looked weak, so he went for it. Eventually he claimed to have JQ.

    Wendy, regarding his tank, I thought he could call, raise, ship, or fold, so I guess I thought it was legitimate.

    Thanks again to all,

    Mike D.
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