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5/10 NLH 4000 effective. Interesting spot

PHILtheRUSH Posts: 78SubscriberProfessional
edited July 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Hand 1: 5/10 4k effective.

Villain info: tag, thinking player. From table talk seems like a regular at 5/10.
Previous to this hand maybe an hour before this hand, villain 5 bet and called my 6bet shove with AK, I had AA for 4kpot I won. Him (utg) me utg+1 I acted out of turn on accident and raised utg+1 so he limped 3-bet me.

He went broke shortly after and rebought.

The hand:


Folds to villain in hj seat who raises to 40, hero calls in the co with AT, button calls.

Flop: A T 8 r (135)

V bets 65, hero calls, button folds.

Turn: 9 (265)

V checks, hero bets 125, v raises to 425, hero calls.

River: 8 (1115)

V bets 900, hero?

Comments

  • JerseyJay Posts: 181Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    When villain check raises turn the red flag should certainly go up. I like a call to boat up, but in my expereince the check raise and overbet ship river = nuts very often and 2 pair is no good. QJ is a belly buster draw on the flop and certainly makes sense. Thats at least the story hes telling. If he had A9 he boated. I guess he can overplay A8 but seems to be a small part of his range, AK, AQ, AJ as well, especially w your Ace blocker. sometimes tt, 88, 99. Even adding in a 10% spaz factor to his range I don't believe you are good often enough here.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    The more I think about it, the more I don't think his river bet makes a lot of sense as a value bet. Even after the turn check/raise, you can have a pretty wide value range - straights, sets, a ton of two pair combos, plus a variety of pair + OESD hands. You don't really have value hands that don't have four out redraws against QJ. This means that the turn bet could be made with a pretty wide value range on the villains part - two pair, sets, straights.

    Once the river card hits, however, most of those redraw hands brick out, except for T8. And then the villain makes a super polarizing bet size. Honestly, I think your hand is functionally equal to 76 - it looks like he has aces full or tens full and is going for gold against a straight. Considering that you're 4k deep, though, the villain could easily expect you to 3-bet the turn with a straight. We also have to consider that the villain isn't a level 1 player, evidence by the 6-bet hand.

    This all adds up to there being a decent chance, IMO, that this is a ploy on the villain's part. I think you are good here the ~30% of the time you need to make this call.
  • RDF Posts: 183Member
    Hand was played fine. Estimate how often you think he's bluffing and call or fold. He's not betting worse hands for value.

    I'm probably folding as a standard but am calling against a lot of opponents.
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