Welcome.

Take a tour. Enjoy some free sample content.

How it works

Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value
New to Crush Live Poker?

Weird spot...What do you do here?

Tdb5073 Posts: 7Subscriber
edited July 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/3 at local casino in Pittsburgh. Hero is mid 20's male with $400. Villain 1 is early 30's black guy, I have only been at table for a few hands, but he has been involved in 4/4 hands and has over $2k. Villain 2 seems like a mid 30's male nit with around $1,500. Other than these few hands we have no previous history. Villain 2 opens UTG for 12, hero calls in middle with 88, Villain 1 raises to 30 OTB, Villain 2 thinks for a minute and calls, Hero calls. Flop 8 J Q rainbow. Villain 2 checks, Hero bets 60, Villain 1 quickly calls, Villain 2 raises to 170, Hero flats (not wanting to raise and have Villain 1 fold an overpair), Villian 1 thinks for a while and ships all in?! Villian 2 folds, Hero? This is such a weird spot, and I'm not sure if villain 1 is bad enough to overplay aces or kings, but I don't think I have ever seen someone at this level shovel in 500bbs on a flop without the stone nuts. It just seems like QQ or JJ are a little more likely than 910 because of preflop action, but after flop shove he has to have the nuts right? To make this call profitable I figured that he has to have 910 around 85% of the time or more. What do you do here?

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Ok.. I am having trouble following the action.. Where is V1 and V2? you are in the middle.. V1 is oop and opens first to 12.. you call with 88 and V2 reraises to 30 correct?

    Please post your HH in a format like this to help us:

    Background

    Villain history V1-
    V2-
    Hero image

    Action preflop and where each person is on the table

    Flop 8 J Q

    action on flop......

    Turn x

    Action on turn.....

    River x

    Action on river


    this makes it way easier to follow whats going on..

    So based on what I can understand V1 check raises on this flop after you bet 60 and V2 called you then reships all in on flop after the check raise? lol.. You sure these guys are colluding? Pretty fishy to me to have someone fold a big check raise on the flop..

    most folks dont threebet with 9T but rather big pocket pairs and AK.. its rainbow so he cant have a flush draw.. So in reality its more likely he has QQ or JJ and is slowplaying it.. that said as you had mentioned almost NO one ships this big on the flop without the nuts. I saw this a month ago when I was playing at parx and effective stacks were 800 on the flop.. Villain bets out.. I have set of 9s.. and I raise 100 on top gets back around to Villain and he goes all in for 700 more.. lol.. I just folded.. he showed the nuts...

    so you put in 200 of your 400 stack on the flop, correct? Against a range of all QQs JJs and 9Tsuited cards you are 56% to 44.. which means you call off your last 200 and hope he has nut straight and you fill up..

    and I would look very closely as those two to see if they seem like they are sharing stacks. how does both of them get 1500 and 2k stacks in a 1/3 game anyways? Is it uncapped ?

    ww
  • Tdb5073 Posts: 7Subscriber
    Yes you have the action correct, sorry about the formatting. The game is not uncapped, but it was rumored to have been running for over 24 hours before I got there, avg stack was ~$1,000. The two guys in the hand were 99% not colluding, seems kind of suicide to try and squeeze me out after I put in almost half of my stack. Villain 1 ended up busting Villain 2 multiple times later in the night as well. I ended up just sticking it in and hoping he had 910, which he did. At what stack size do you find a fold here?
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    It becomes a math equation.. and a little comfort level. In theory as long as you have more equity then the price you are getting you should call.

    so if he has say 1000 behind and so do you then you are getting the right price as long as the total pot is at most the same amount you have.. IE you are getting 1:1 ...1:1 means you need to good 1 out of 2 times or 50% equity..

    This stuff can get confusing and there is a podcast that bart did about a year ago on math that you should listen to. Its imperative that as a good player that you keep track of the pot and know cold these equities..

    To calculate your equity on the fly bart uses the 45 unseen card rule.. so its 45 on flop and 44 on turn.. you take your outs and divide by 45 and that lets you know what your equity is if you need to hit a draw.. That said there are a number of good equity range calculators and I use pkr cruncher that I have on my iphone. I can put in my hand and the range of what I think villain has , the flop and can calculate my equity there..

    A good general rule is once you put in half your stack you can pretty much never fold.. Its a rare scenario that you would put in half your stack and fold.. because you are getting better than 2:1 in almost all situations..

    ww
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I was thinking that you actually cant have 50% if there are two bigger sets and realized somehow I added KK to his range.. that said if you think villain is doing the same with an overpair like KK or AA then your equity is pretty good.

    You take out KK or AA and your equity is under 20%

    but its still a math equation. and calling 200 off when the pot is effectively around $600 you are getting 3:1 you only have to be good 1:4 times which is 25% of the time..

    So if this villain has NO overpairs, no spaz factor and no bluffing frequency then you should fold. If he has any of the above then you should call.

    ww
  • Tdb5073 Posts: 7Subscriber
    That's the thing. I guess it possible, but extremely unlikely that he does this with AA/KK, still feels weird folding this hand after putting in half our stack....I think if Villian 2 has 200bbs or less this is a call everytime, but given both their stacks of >500bbs and the distinct possibility of Villian 2 having a nutty hand given his flop play, that Villian 1 literally >90% of the time has 910 and the other 10% has QQ (don't think he ever does this with JJ), so in hindsight I guess it is a fold.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    no maybe its not.. if villain pretty much ONLY does this with 9T then you have to call.

    the equity I calculated was on all combos of sets.. if he only has say 1 combo of each then your equity is 28%.. you really need to know these equities...

    get pkr cruncher on your phone right away and start playing with it..
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Paragraphs for the win
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Paragraphs for the win
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    TylerBonfanti said:
    That's the thing. I guess it possible, but extremely unlikely that he does this with AA/KK, still feels weird folding this hand after putting in half our stack....I think if Villian 2 has 200bbs or less this is a call everytime, but given both their stacks of >500bbs and the distinct possibility of Villian 2 having a nutty hand given his flop play, that Villian 1 literally >90% of the time has 910 and the other 10% has QQ (don't think he ever does this with JJ), so in hindsight I guess it is a fold.
    so you think the guy that has played 4/4 of the last hands must have a nutty hand?
    In our 1/2 & 1/3 games, V1 can have anything from QJ, AQ, KT and KQ... just to name a few. Especially from the button.
    You called with 88, you hit your set, you're short stacked... so you pretty much have to call it off.
    You got caught in the crossfire of the 2 big stacks that were raising and 3-betting pretty light. I chalk this one up to a cold deck. If your stack was deeper, I might find a fold. But based on the little info you provided (and knew about the players) - you just got coolered.
    I think V1 would do this with a large portion of his range including JJ, QQ, KK and AA.
    Be careful about being results-oriented. 9 times out of 10, this type of V does this with one-pair and drawing hands. A flopped set is a MONSTER compared to his range.
  • Tdb5073 Posts: 7Subscriber
    Just because he has played pretty much every hand seems pretty irrelevant to the action in this hand. Big difference between being involved in lots of pots and 3 bet shoving 500bbs in on the flop against 2 players that have shown strength(one of which has him covered). The dynamic you are describing "getting caught in the crossfire" literally doesn't exist at this level, and this type of action is a result of big hands(v2 claims to have had aq). These games are full of habitual pot control, and unless I specifically see someone do something insane, they rarely, if ever, are.

    That being said I do think you probably have to go with this hand, although I disagree with his range. I did consider the slight possibility of qj, the reason why I found a call.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Tyler

    If you dont think he has many bigger sets and your set is good you actually WANT to get it in as fast as you can. since just with your set you will have around 35-36% equity yet you are getting better than that. If you thought he had even a slight possibility of QJ then you have even more equity.

    You need to just memorize these equity to pot conversions:

    !:1 is equal to 50% equity
    2:1 is equal to 30% equity
    3:1 is equal to 25% equity etc..

    you can see that with a set trying to fill up is always 8 outs twice out of the 45 unseen card rule.. 35.5% then what is the pot laying you? 200 to win 600 3:1 what is that 25% equity.. so you call since your equity is higher
  • Tdb5073 Posts: 7Subscriber
    I downloaded poker cruncher...is there any way to assign a weight to each of the hands in a range on there? If not any apps that do?
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    so for example the first time I did all combos of sets? click on the "suits" option and just deselect all but say 1.. then do the same for say JJ and deselect all combos but one.. that gives only 1 combo of each set..

    so you can select each combo if you like to get the correct proportion that you want to calculate..

    does that make sense?

    Wendy
  • GroundhogDayGroundhogDay Posts: 287Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    image
    image



  • Arenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    The villain on the button is not shoveling 500bb into this pot, he is essentially moving the Hero in for about $200. Yes, he may have sets of Js or Qs, but that is so rare it shouldn't be a concern here in this situation. Why would you ever fold in this spot after sticking 50% of your stack in the pot? You flopped the best hand you could have realistically hoped for!
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    This is a snap call he's not likely to re-raise on the button with 9-10 unless he is somewhat confident that he can take the pot away from you 2 with a preflop min raise or some other huge play after the flop.

    Most likely he's building a pot for KK,QQ,or AA.

    The button probably has QJ, JJ AA KK or QQ,

    With 9-10 in his range you are a slight favorite
    PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPad V.7.2.1

    (Equity, Win, Tie)
    Player 1: 55.4% 54.8% 1.12% [8s8h]
    Player 2: 44.6% 44.1% 1.12% {JJ+, QJs, T9s, QJo, T9o}

    Board: [Qh Jc 8d ? ?]
    Deal To: River
    Dead Cards: {}

    Monte Carlo Simulation: 2000000 trials

    Without 9-10 you are a 2-1 favorite

    PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPad V.7.2.1

    (Equity, Win, Tie)
    Player 1: 67.6% 66.9% 1.26% [8s8h]
    Player 2: 32.4% 31.8% 1.26% {JJ+, QJs, QJo}

    Board: [Qh Jc 8d ? ?]
    Deal To: River
    Dead Cards: {}

    Monte Carlo Simulation: 2000000 trials


  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    TylerBonfanti said:
    I downloaded poker cruncher...is there any way to assign a weight to each of the hands in a range on there? If not any apps that do?

    http://www.pokercruncher.com/ipPokerCruncherTutorial.html#HandCombinationsWeightsInHandRanges

    When in doubt RTFM.... Read the Fine Manual
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    indeed he is shoving 500bb, villain 2 is still in the hand. I call here
Sign In or Register to comment.