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Too Thin?

Beebs Posts: 44Subscriber
edited July 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/3 NL. Typical live Sunday afternoon game very loose passive. Villain is a tagish reg. A little on the tighter side, but is capable of making moves. Villain views hero as a tag winning player. We have played quite a bit against each other and I know he respects my game.

290 effective. 9 handed. Villain limps under the gun, hero UTG+2 raises to 15 with KhQc. Big blind calls and villain calls. Flop Ks8c7s. BB checks, villain checks, hero bets 30. BB folds, villain calls.

Turn 6h, villain checks and hero checks back. Vs. typical bad loose passive players I'll often bet fold here, but I didn't think I could get 3 streets with worse from this villain so I thought checking was ok. Also thinking this can sometimes induce a bluff or for them to value bet worse .

River 9d. V checks and I bet 40. Is that too thin? Should I check back the turn?

Comments

  • LVH Posts: 171Member
    Well, you beat KJ only and he has plenty of winning hands that will check call. Here, I check. But I think you can get 3 streets from KJ, especially on other run outs. K-T calls the turn almost for sure. It NEVER makes a crying call on a bad river? There are a lot of draws you could have missed.

    I think the turn is the worst street to check, assuming you plan to only bet 2. There are a ton of hands that call the turn, many of which fold to a river bet after they miss. Moreover, if you are just going to bet 2 streets, and think you'll get called only twice, why let him draw for free, then bet?
  • Beebs Posts: 44Subscriber
    That's a good point. Would you bet fold the turn? What if it's a more aggressive opponent who could have a lot of combo draws or pair/straight draws that they could check raise with?
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    I'd rather bet turn and check back the river. On the turn, he can still have flush draws and 98, 97 sorts of hands that will pay off a bet. On the river those hands will either have hit or have bricked, so we're either losing or they won't pay us.

    As played, I initially thought the river bet is fine, but the only hand he can have that we can get value from is KJ. This is why we needed to bet the turn.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    must, must, must bet the turn. you might be lucky enough to be up against a worse king and have massive equity, but a draw is more likely. and once he bricks on river, bye bye value. in fact, this is the exact kind of situation bart's referring to when he preaches value value value. pot controlling in this way regularly will cost you so, so much. you want opponents to be on a draw because they'll call with a worse hand.

    on river, might as well bet. he might actually have a king. if he binked with 56 or with JsTs don't you think he'd bet? with position, i think this is an almost obligatory bet when checked to. even if you think villain wouldn't pay off with, say, KJ/KT/Kx, you don't know for sure. and since you can basically eliminate a straight because he checked, it's a fairly easy value bet.

  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    floppedawheel said:
    must, must, must bet the turn. you might be lucky enough to be up against a worse king and have massive equity, but a draw is more likely. and once he bricks on river, bye bye value. in fact, this is the exact kind of situation bart's referring to when he preaches value value value. pot controlling in this way regularly will cost you so, so much. you want opponents to be on a draw because they'll call with a worse hand.

    on river, might as well bet. he might actually have a king. if he binked with 56 or with JsTs don't you think he'd bet? with position, i think this is an almost obligatory bet when checked to. even if you think villain wouldn't pay off with, say, KJ/KT/Kx, you don't know for sure. and since you can basically eliminate a straight because he checked, it's a fairly easy value bet.

    KT has a straight. The only Ks we beat here are KJ and K4-K2. If he's playing KJo as a limp/call pf, he has eight KJ combos.

    I guess this winds up being a bet still, since he can only have two combos of 98s, doesn't take this line with 87s, probably doesn't call the flop with 97s. He could have 86s, but his there's got to be some pre-flop folding frequency with that, so maybe one combo. Yeah, we still need to bet here, but he's going to fold almost always I think.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    Accidental double post, sorry.
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    TAG on the tighter side, limping UTG, KT, 86 - none of that goes together. If he's gonna limp-call with 97s or whatever don't call him a TAG-REG call him a BAD-REG. BAD-REG maybe a little tighter than most.
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