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2/5 KK oop

clampoker Posts: 2Member
edited July 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
V - early 20s, been at the table for a couple orbits, minimal reads, one hand he limp/called pre and went heads up, x/c uncoordinated Jhigh flop with fd, x/x on A turn, and led river for ~1/2pot when flush came in, other player called with KJ and was good.

Hero - late 20s, has shown down no hands and only raised/3bet when entering any pots so far, V has not seen hero do more than raise ip and win preflop, do not believe he had seen any 3bets.

Eff stacks 475. Folds to V in HJ who min raises to 10, folds to hero in SB who raises to 50 with KK, BB folds, V calls.

Flop (105): Qs9d7h

Hero bets 85, V calls. How is this sizing?

Turn (275): Qs9d7h 8d

Hero bets 175, V calls. Again, how is sizing and is this a b/c or b/f?

River (625): Qs9d7h 8d Ah

Hero?

Thanks in advance for input.
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Comments

  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    Your 3-bet pre-flop seems slightly large to me, but hey, he called it, so whatever.

    I'd probably bet around 70 or so on the flop; we don't need to build up the pot right now to play for stacks, and maybe we can get a call out of T9, TT, and the like.

    Turn could also be slightly smaller - more like 140 or 150. That said, I think you have to call if he ships...he could just go eh, whatever with AQ or KQ, and if he has two pair you still have eight outs.

    River I'd just ship; we're not going to fold if he bets, getting 4.5 to 1.

  • LVH Posts: 171Member
    Tyrith, river was an Ace. AQ beats us. JT beats us. QQ 99 beat us. Odd nutty 2 pair like 97suited beats us. In many cases, we hear from those hands by now. But not always.

    We beat JJ TT KQ. QJ might be here sometimes. Q-T suited occasionally. JJ and TT sometimes fold by now, but sometimes hang around w/ the gutshot. KQ is probably still here. Though they start the hand less often, QJ and Q-10 suited almost always hang around w/ the straight draws. You don't play them to fold top pair w/ a straight draw.

    We have 165 left, correct? It's not a pretty spot. If we check to him, is he ever checking better? Probably not. Almost everything that has us beat will bet. Is he ever betting worse? Only as a very ambitious bluff. Really, he almost has to have decent showdown value. Is it worth turning KQ into a bluff for less than the turn bet? How many people would think to do that? What better hands might fold? KK exactly or another KQ? Even a pretty aggro player is probably just like, "whew! he checked, maybe KQ is good!" JJ and TT are more likely to try it, but very rarely.

    If we bet, he calls all better hands. Does he call with a Q , JJ, or TT? This kind of guy MIGHT. He can kind of level himself, I guess, since we made a big PFR and have just been firing away through an ever changing board. It's easy to say we're repping QQ, AA or nothing. And he has a Q in his hand and there's a Q on the board, maybe he can call.

    Against most people, I think it's a sickening check fold. Against some Swede tourney guy with a florescent green backpack and a ridiculous haircut it's a bet. I think maybe this guy is close enough to the latter to bet.

    Sizing on prior streets is good, imo. You got big value from this guy. Maybe make it slightly bigger on the turn. You don't want KQ to fold, but a lot of hands will call almost anything, then feel committed on the river.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    personally, I hate the turn bet.
    I make it a point not to build a pot oop when all I've got is one pair.

    what is he calling that you're beating? KQ, QJ, T8...
    the min-raise from HJ and 3-bet call tells me that he's got something sneaky.
    his call on the flop tells me he's got something that's probably beating your Kowboys.

    the turn 8 completes an obvious str8.
    I like the c-bet on the flop - forcing V to call with something good.
    But on the turn, I'd go into c/c mode unless this guy has a ton of bluffs in his range.

    On a K-high board, I'm looking to get my stack in by the river.
    On a Q-9 board, I'm more cautious.

    As always - it's player dependent... but I think I c/f the river.
  • RDF Posts: 183Member
    All in on river for 165 into 625.

    Ace only hits AQ, we're not check/folding given the pot odds, and I think betting to get called lightly is more profitable than check/calling.
  • Rhino Posts: 3Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    @
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    there is no reason to check the flop against unknown. same thing on the turn. I would size it a little smaller pre/flop/turn and probably bet/fold but with your sizing and some combodraws out there, I bet/call turn or ship the river if he just calls the turnbet. I don't like it but it's the best option.
    I also don't care about having a strong checkcalling range as pfr.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    shove river since i highly doubt we are folding river in this spot if he shoves on us.

    Worst card came off besides another Q i guess.

    Also I would played it same, bet larger PF due to being OOP, I might have bet bigger on turn cause we are so ahead of his range here IMO unless our read is off and this guy is loose ass station.

    either way im assuming you lost and sorry for that but he shows up enough with KQ/QJ/Q10 here IMO more then AQ.
  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    LVH said:
    Tyrith, river was an Ace. AQ beats us. JT beats us. QQ 99 beat us. Odd nutty 2 pair like 97suited beats us. In many cases, we hear from those hands by now. But not always.

    We beat JJ TT KQ. QJ might be here sometimes. Q-T suited occasionally. JJ and TT sometimes fold by now, but sometimes hang around w/ the gutshot. KQ is probably still here. Though they start the hand less often, QJ and Q-10 suited almost always hang around w/ the straight draws. You don't play them to fold top pair w/ a straight draw.

    We have 165 left, correct? It's not a pretty spot. If we check to him, is he ever checking better? Probably not. Almost everything that has us beat will bet. Is he ever betting worse? Only as a very ambitious bluff. Really, he almost has to have decent showdown value. Is it worth turning KQ into a bluff for less than the turn bet? How many people would think to do that? What better hands might fold? KK exactly or another KQ? Even a pretty aggro player is probably just like, "whew! he checked, maybe KQ is good!" JJ and TT are more likely to try it, but very rarely.

    If we bet, he calls all better hands. Does he call with a Q , JJ, or TT? This kind of guy MIGHT. He can kind of level himself, I guess, since we made a big PFR and have just been firing away through an ever changing board. It's easy to say we're repping QQ, AA or nothing. And he has a Q in his hand and there's a Q on the board, maybe he can call.

    Against most people, I think it's a sickening check fold. Against some Swede tourney guy with a florescent green backpack and a ridiculous haircut it's a bet. I think maybe this guy is close enough to the latter to bet.

    Sizing on prior streets is good, imo. You got big value from this guy. Maybe make it slightly bigger on the turn. You don't want KQ to fold, but a lot of hands will call almost anything, then feel committed on the river.
    There's nothing particularly disputable about this analysis, but the pot odds are going to be large enough if he bets that we're getting into the realm where we're forced to call just because of unknowns being unpredictable and people having an inherent spew frequency.

    With this particular river card, it would have been better if the pot were a little smaller, so we wouldn't be as stuck. Even if we bet 70 flop and 140 on the turn, we'd still be betting 215 into 520 - except now if we need to check the river, we're only getting 3.5:1 instead of nearly 5:1 and we have some more room to fold.
  • clampoker Posts: 2Member
    What LVH said is pretty much exactly what my thought process was. I really thought he would NEVER bluff this river because of stack sizes. Even though I think my hand would be totally face up if I checked the river, we had no history and for all this V knew, I would never fold KK here getting these pot odds. So why would he bluff?

    With that in mind, I ended up check/folding and felt kind of sick about it. I just couldn't find a range in that moment that gave me the equity needed to call, plus as some others have said, if I was going to check/call I would have just bet to get the few combos of Q's I beat to call. It made me think a lot about bet sizing and awkward stack sizes. Still not sure if I should be sizing differently because of shallow effective stacks.

    He showed a 9 when he mucked, and I imagine if it was really a bluff, he'd have shown the whole thing, but at the same time, if he had a set/2pr how is he flatting the turn and not just getting it in?
    by 1LVH
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    Why scare you off, you're doing all the betting for him. He figures if you get a 2 or a 3 on the river the rest is going in anyway ? And if not he can toss out something to suck you in because he's last to act.

  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    I'd size my bets differently so the river wasn't such a small size. I almost prefer over betting all in on the turn rather than leaving us 1/4-1/5 pot behind or whatever it is. The best line is probably smaller bets on the flop turn and river where we can shove half pot.

    As played I just ship it in and hope he's enough of a station to call it off due to the pot size. C/f could be good if you had some reads but I don't see the merit to it without more info on the villain.
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    this is obviously very close and i don't see a course of action that's clearly wrong. but given how short stacks are, and player type, i think a shove is slightly better than c/f. the ace hitting makes it less likely he has one, although you have KK so it's even less likely he has KQ. but enough other hands in his calling range that i think it's worth a shove. the small stacks just make getting a 'fuck it' call from worse so much more likely.
  • LVH Posts: 171Member
    clampoker said:
    What LVH said is pretty much exactly what my thought process was. I really thought he would NEVER bluff this river because of stack sizes. Even though I think my hand would be totally face up if I checked the river, we had no history and for all this V knew, I would never fold KK here getting these pot odds. So why would he bluff?

    With that in mind, I ended up check/folding and felt kind of sick about it. I just couldn't find a range in that moment that gave me the equity needed to call, plus as some others have said, if I was going to check/call I would have just bet to get the few combos of Q's I beat to call. It made me think a lot about bet sizing and awkward stack sizes. Still not sure if I should be sizing differently because of shallow effective stacks.

    He showed a 9 when he mucked, and I imagine if it was really a bluff, he'd have shown the whole thing, but at the same time, if he had a set/2pr how is he flatting the turn and not just getting it in?
    I don't think check call is any good. More likely to get called by a Q than successfully bluff catch. So I think it was a decent play, as you took one of 2 viable options.

    I guess 9-t makes some sense. It's a possibility. Goofy min raise, calls in position, thinks you could be bluffing on the flop, realizes you're serious on the turn but picks up straight draw, bluffs ace on river... but I don't think that's happening much at all. He has to make several unusual decisions. You're river check looks so much like a check call, as you said, except with total crap he beats anyway.

    I don't think a lot of people are bluffing, then showing 1 card that suggests strength. Almost certainly, he is showing you just the nine to try to plant doubt in your mind or make you tilt. He might be a little annoyed that you found a fold or that he sort of got rivered. If he has 9-10 and is showing you a card, why on earth wouldn't he just show the bluff and potentially trigger a meltdown? Just doesn't make much sense.

    Kind of obvious, but if he showed it without selecting a card, that means they were probably interchangeable, either as two pair or a set.

    Knowing he had and showed a 9, I think he had you more than 90% of the time.
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