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Raise and Barrel or call and bomb when you hit?

ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
edited July 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain in hand is a pretty good reg.. he says he hand reads and tries to put players on ranges but he is just too loose.. He beat me in a pot a little while earlier when he rivered a straight to a one liner when he called my flop and turn bets on a flush draw. He also called my ep raise with Js3s on that hand.. Villain has hero covered.

V2 straightforward abc player.. pretty weak..

Hero has won a couple pots since then and has 1300 effective.

Villain raises in ep to 20. This really can be any SC, any pair and any high broadway cards..

one player calls in between I call in CO with Qs Js button calls and so does bb.. so 5 to flop pot $100

Flop 3d 8s Ts

I flop a guthsot straight flush draw.. V1 bets 50 V2 flats..


pros for raising: V1 thinks I am pretty nitty and would fold a lot of one pair hands to a raise..

cons for raising V1 is sticky with other types of hands as you saw in the hand earlier.. if he has a draw he will think I am really strong and will try to hit..

So what should Hero do?
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Comments

  • Tyrith Posts: 353Subscriber
    I'm wondering if the $50 bet is a bet sizing tell or if it's just random. I'd think he'd bet slightly more with an overpair or a set on this kind of drawy board, but I don't know how trust worthy that is. Other value hands are AT/KT/QT/JT obviously.

    If he isn't raising with As4s sorts of hands from EP, then it's hard for him to have many flush draws - AsKs and 7s6s seem like about it. If he's raising one-gappers he can have 9s7s and 7s5s, but that seems really wide for someone you'd call anything other than a bad player. He could also have straight draws in that case, but again they seem unlikely. I'd weight his random mostly toward made hand, one pair kinds of hands.

    If you think he'll fold most of his one-pair hands to a raise to $200, I think we absolutely should raise here. Our equity is in the mid-40s against his range of overpairs and we're ahead against a single pair 10, so let's lay the hammer on it here.

    If he bet/3-bets the flop I'd be shocked, but we need to think. If he makes it $600, it's $950 to use, $400 to call - we're getting 2.4~ to 1. This is close, but we're probably forced to call and could fold the turn if the board pairs. I don't think it's likely this would come up, though.
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    Since you have the Q & J of spades, the 10 is on the board do you think V1 would raise early position with A9s or K9s or lower ? from a cold read I'll say probably not or these are at the stone bottom of his range.

    I think any hand that calls your raise has you beat or you're behind. So I'd smooth and try to pick up value on the turn. Additionally what is V2 calling with, he may have the A9 spades or the K9 spades or J-10 or Q-10,A-10,K-10.

    If V2 is getting trappy then seeing the turn getting odds to send him to reverse implied odds hell seems good to me.

    The moment I call I'm praying for an off suit 9 so I can crush their souls and take at least one of their stacks.

    You have to make a decision will the 200 raise (or any raise ) force out the ABC player that probably hit a piece of the flop (which is why he called) ? You are only picking up the pot against marginal holdings and weak players. ABC(v2) guys tend to think top pair is the nuts, so if he has A-10 he may ride it to the river...

    If you get a blank on the river then you can spike a raise and see how they take it but rememer you are playing against an ABC(v2) guy that has cold called a raise and a lead. Has the nuts or drawing to the nuts. A turn play will only push ABC(v2) out if he's drawing
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    Both of you have listed out what my thoughts are.. One the one side he sees me as very tight and would fold virtually all his one pair hands. On the other side he is more aggro so one gappers and Ax ss he probably would raise.. remember he CALLED my utg raise with J3ss so he is a flush master.. I think if he calls he either has a made hand two pair or better (with the exception of AA w the As as he would think that is backup if a spade came) or a flush draw.. I doubt he would call my raise with just a naked straight draw but I cant take out all combos.. Its VERY important that I have the Js.. because if he has say AKss or AQss then he doesnt even have a gutter to a higher straight ..at least right now..

    So I raised to $175..

    pot is (100 from preflop action my 175, V1s 175 and V2 50) = $500

    note: in hindsight this is not big enough.. I do tend to raise smaller but against a stickier player he might float with an overpair given my sizing and I will need to fix that leak..

    he quickly called me and V2 folded mumbling something like "I am an idiot I should have raised pre" indicating to me of course that he had a big hand he didnt threebet V1 with.. That would take out alot of Aces and Kings in V1s range ..

    Turn Qd V1 checks.

    now what? In my mind this was a pretty good card for me. He cant have any oe flush draw beacause I block that with my J.. so what J9 is he calling my flop bet with? Also now I have top pair and again what Q is he calling my flop bet with QT? not likely.. its hard for him to have virtually any Q unless he was just floating me.. I also thought that he is very unlikely to raise my bet because I have lots of oesd in my range J9ss very much in my range so even if he happen to hit two pair its just really hard for him to raise me.

    still should hero bet or take the free card?

    pros for betting : He isnt going to raise me without a monster.. but what monster can he have ? Also if I do take a free card I think I look like I have exactly a flush draw with maybe a combo draw and now I think he is very likely to bluff me off my hand if the flush misses. I basically open myself up to being bluffed by a missed draw or a TP type hand..

    cons for betting: almost anything I bet would pot commit me and I would potentially have to call off behind but having pot odds..

    ww
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    Monsters he can have are 10's,8's, and J9, or KJ (<-draw) suited that missed the original flush but binked the straight.

    if he chases flushes, he chases straights....

    If you bet and get check rasied you are now chasing a made hand drawing to a weak gutter and a flush draw or he has air, and thinks he can take the hand from you

    I think you are in reverse implied odds territory. Take the free card, double down the prayers for the 9 on the river or a non paired spade to send him felted hell, I think only the 9 gives him felt burns and makes us warm and fuzzy. If a spade falls I have to call and hope he doesn't have A9spades.

  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    Here's what I think his range is with just spades in the suited ranges...

    PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPad V.7.2.1

    (Equity, Win, Tie)
    Player 1: 41.5% 41.4% 0.12% [QsJs]
    Player 2: 58.5% 58.5% 0.12% {QQ+, TT, 33, As2s+, Ks2s+, J9s}

    Board: [3d Ts 8s ? ?]
    Deal To: River
    Dead Cards: {}

    Monte Carlo Simulation: 2000000 trials


    A bet will probably push out those you are beating and only get called by better spades drawing, sets and over pairs AA,KK,QQ. (maybe JJ maybe....)

    and who pays you off if you hit spades on the river ?? if a spade comes on the river and he fires now what ? you probably have to hold your nose and call.. because bluffing on a made flush after beating you on a rivered flush may give him ideas to bluff the girl off of the hand with an aggresive bet after a scare card.

    the only card that pays you off that you feel good about is an off suit 9 another Q ...
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    MrFizzbin said:
    Monsters he can have are 10's,8's, and J9, or KJ (<-draw) suited that missed the original flush but binked the straight.

    if he chases flushes, he chases straights....

    If you bet and get check rasied you are now chasing a made hand drawing to a weak gutter and a flush draw or he has air, and thinks he can take the hand from you

    I think you are in reverse implied odds territory. Take the free card, double down the prayers for the 9 on the river or a non paired spade to send him felted hell, I think only the 9 gives him felt burns and makes us warm and fuzzy. If a spade falls I have to call and hope he doesn't have A9spades.

    </div>
    what straight with KJ? there is no 9 on the board.. the board is T 8 Q only J9 makes the straight but if hes only raising with these hands in ep he can have only three combos.. J9 dd, j9 hh and j9cc.. all of which are drawing and praying for the non spade? He is a bit sticky but given my experience with him he is not going to go with these hands..

    KJ would now be open ended but again what KJ wud he have? I have the Js.. so I discount that hand too..

    ww
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    MrFizzbin said:
    Here's what I think his range is with just spades in the suited ranges...

    PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPad V.7.2.1

    (Equity, Win, Tie)
    Player 1: 41.5% 41.4% 0.12% [QsJs]
    Player 2: 58.5% 58.5% 0.12% {QQ+, TT, 33, As2s+, Ks2s+, J9s}

    Board: [3d Ts 8s ? ?]
    Deal To: River
    Dead Cards: {}

    Monte Carlo Simulation: 2000000 trials


    A bet will probably push out those you are beating and only get called by better spades, worse spades, sets and over pairs AA,KK,QQ. (maybe JJ maybe....)
    He cant have J9 ss.. I have the Js.. I think he can have Ax spade but probably take a few middle unconnected Ax hands out like A6 or A7ss.. QQ is certainly in his range but not likely given my blocker so on a board of Qd and me having the Qs that leaves Qc Qh.. one combo K high flush draws he would play if they were connected as him raising. He will CALL bad high low suited cards but he raised so I think he has to have more connectivity. Since again I have the Qs and the Js he can only have AsKs and As Ts.. Ts on the board so that just leave AsKs.

    remember their range is blocked by some of my cards and so your range analysis needs to take this into consideration.

    ww
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    As you said your flop raise is too small, I probably raise to 225 or 250.

    Other than a 9, it would seem the Q is about the best card you could have asked for. Top pair, pick up additional outs on top of what you already had. Your opponent doesn't reraise the flop bet, and checks the turn... This adds up to a bet for me. You have good equity.
  • GhostDogGhostDog Posts: 328Subscriber
    So if we take the free card and the river is a brick, say the 2h are we calling a river bet?

    I'm not too worried about getting c/r here. The only made hand is J9 now and we have a J blocker. I also think that most of the sets on the flop would 3 bet due to how wet that flop is. Villain could have better flush draws and maybe some one pair hands and 97. So I'm betting for value here, say $300-$350. To charge flush draws that we are now beating and any part of his sticky one pair type hands and straight draws.

    If we get c/r here I think we would have to decide if he has the straight and if we are getting the right odds at our flush and chop outs. But again, I think it's not likely he has a straight here.
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    I think a bet here only forces out the the hands we beat, that might be enough to protect our hand but a re-raise is bluff with better spades or or a hand that beats us

    against that range you are 41-58

    If I were the villian and had a made hand (set, overpair) I'd wait till the turn to bomb for exactly the same reason that you are giving Wendy. let her bet then wham... If I have crappy spades, I let them go to any bet. So bet to win the hand but you should consider bouncing if you get re-raised.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Ok so in detail this is the range that I can put him on after he calls the flop

    33s, TTs, Axss, 97ss, maybe 1 combo of AA that he was floating on the flop.. QQ

    so let me run my equity against this range...

    So against this range I am about 40% to his 60% that said I have a made hand now so in my mind if he does have the flush draw I can get value from that if it misses and I have the back up of the flush draw if he has a made hand. And I still felt he wouldnt raise me because he would be worried I hit my draw since my most likely combo draw is the Js9s..

    So I bet $315.. which in hindsight is still a little small.. but more than half pot and a really big bet from me.. I almost never bet this big..

    He called again really quickly.. so now I am actually pretty worried he has a better hand.. and if the flush missed I wasnt going to bet again but take it to showdown if he checked since I would never get him to fold a better hand and I win against the flush draws I mentioned.. pot now has $1130 (500 from flop and 630 from turn)..

    I have around 800 ish left..

    River 9 c.. bink..

    I see now way he can have any better hand here what KJs can he have?

    V1 checks.. how much does hero bet?

    ww
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    MrFizzbin said:
    He can have Jd 9d or Jc 9c as his original hands and flop 10s-8s for the open ender....
    look at the board.. the Ts is ON the board.. so only 97ss is the oe.. which means my Q I hit is good .. yes he cud have another J9 but with the flush draw on the board I am really discounting him calling me with that hand on a flushing board with no spades..
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    GhostDog said:
    So if we take the free card and the river is a brick, say the 2h are we calling a river bet?

    I'm not too worried about getting c/r here. The only made hand is J9 now and we have a J blocker. I also think that most of the sets on the flop would 3 bet due to how wet that flop is. Villain could have better flush draws and maybe some one pair hands and 97. So I'm betting for value here, say $300-$350. To charge flush draws that we are now beating and any part of his sticky one pair type hands and straight draws.

    If we get c/r here I think we would have to decide if he has the straight and if we are getting the right odds at our flush and chop outs. But again, I think it's not likely he has a straight here.
    yeah that was my biggest fear.. he is not afraid to put money in the pot even as a bluff. I have picked him off before.. I honestly believe that me betting the $315 is also protection against a bomb bluff. He isnt quite like Harry on latb but he is capable of this and by me betting should block this action. Remember he sees me as pretty nitty so him bluffing river after I bet turn is just really unlikely since he probably thinks I have a strong hand..

    Ghost dog.. I was thinking the exact same thing.. I am unlikely to get cr but if I did then he cant have a flush draw.. if he cant then I think its pretty close but I would probably have to call .. Ill check the equities.. since he really can only have J9.. I have all flush outs now and also gutshot to higher straight.. 3 for 9 and 9 for flush =13/ 44 3.4 to one..meaning I would only need to get 2.4 to 1 on the call.. if he ships for 800 after I bet 315.. then the pot will be 2800 800 to call.. I am getting 3.5 to 1 so I have to call.. assuming I did the math correctly..

    ww
  • GhostDogGhostDog Posts: 328Subscriber
    So I'm not loving the 9 in the river tbh because what is calling us on a four straight board that we beat? But at the same time, I don't like checking back here. So I think we can bet $500 and call off if shoved on. But I think $500 because I want to get "looked up" but 2p hands. I just highly doubt sets, but I'd like to get called by those too. If he has KJ, god bless him.

    I also don't mind a shove here since we are calling off if we bet smaller. I just think a smaller bet might get called more often than a shove. But I'm not sure if there's much if a difference in the two.
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    So just so I'm clear the guy with the J-3 suited hand you described earlier is suddenly descriminating about his suited ranges ?

    Ok maybe he was in position so he can be looser... I'll buy that but if he was out of position with the J-3 hand then I'm sticking with my evaluation of his range.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Do you descrimimate when u are raising bs calling? Early position vs in the blinds? He is not raising j3 suited but obv calls the 15 more when i raised to 20

    The benefit playing some of the same players over and over again is getting better w ranges if u pay attention. I like to think that i do that pretty well
  • Topset1610 Posts: 280Subscriber
    I think it has been very well played up to this point.

    I feel like at this point sizing does not really matter on whether or not he calls. He is either going to call you or fold (obvious statement, but I mean in regards to the amount of times he calls depending on your bet sizing). I think he is generally folding, but since he is either always calling or always folding imo I would bet large. I think I like shoving best. It almost looks like a missed FD. If you bet smaller I think it screams value.
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited July 2014
    none of his flush draws are paying you,

    so now you have to guess what the checks to you means he is either calling or folding

    Two schools of thought, overshove to look like you missed your flush and hope he has a set or 2 pair, a set or a J any of those may call. Overs are done.

    Or Bet small to and try to value own AA and KK..

    Meh you've bled him pretty well, swing for the fences and go for the 800, if he called you all the way w. KJ which was an outside shot the whole way then good for him on the hit.

    another 400 bet leaving 400 behind looks fishey.... if he shoves you're calling anyway so shove and hope he has the ignorant side of the straight a set... or thinks you're bluffing.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    With the 9 i think i have the nuts cuz what kj
    GhostDog said:
    So I'm not loving the 9 in the river tbh because what is calling us on a four straight board that we beat? But at the same time, I don't like checking back here. So I think we can bet $500 and call off if shoved on. But I think $500 because I want to get "looked up" but 2p hands. I just highly doubt sets, but I'd like to get called by those too. If he has KJ, god bless him.

    I also don't mind a shove here since we are calling off if we bet smaller. I just think a smaller bet might get called more often than a shove. But I'm not sure if there's much if a difference in the two.
    When the 9 hits i think i have the nuts cuz what kj is he calling me with? So now its just sizing and i was torn between the bet small and get value fome say two pair or bomb cuz its polarizing

    That said no one has seen me ever tripple barrel empty the clip on a bluff. No one cuz i havent done that in yrs. so if i dont have a bluff on a four liner to straight what will he call me with if i bet 800. True i am really not sure what diff 800 is vs 500.

    I bet $540. He tanked for about 30 seconds and called. Said he had top set. Not sure if that was on flop or hit the 1 outer

    Btw v2 said he had aa. And flatted cuz he was next to act and thought someone wud squeeze. Thats actually rather not likely given our tbl dynamics but its obv he wanted to cr to protect his aces.
  • MrFizzbinMrFizzbin Posts: 356Subscriber
    How much does he have you covered by ? if he has like 4k behind then that may weigh in to howmuch you bet.

    Can you give an approximation of how much more he had before the final answer ???
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